The biggest push-back I've been getting this preseason (and keep it coming, wherever you find me misguided) is with Dez Bryant. "Elite cornerbacks will own him." "He's too injury-prone." "The Cowboys' offense is too run-heavy." And so on. I'd make him one of my contrarian predictions--except his WR-8 ADP is fairly close to mine, while Fantasy Pros-compiled experts rank him 9th for PPR and Standard leagues.
So I'm left to justify a popular opinion, which is unfamiliar territory for this page.
It's absolutely true that Dez is a relatively risky top 10 pick, coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons and unable to fall back on his long-time chemistry with Tony Romo--a dynamic many fantasy managers had come to know and love.
But regardless of what we think about past stats, this is a 28-year-old who averaged 91 catches, 1,312 yards, and 14 TDs from 2012 to 2014. In those three seasons he finished third, seventh, and fourth in WR fantasy scoring. A fluke? For three straight years? In his pre-prime?
Dez is one of the few NFL receivers who can single-handedly carry a team. Jason Witten is another year older. Terrance Williams won't suddenly become an elite #2 receiver. And Cole Beasley shined when needed, but will not challenge Dez for aerial supremacy. The fact is, only one Dallas receiver has a chance to be a WR1. If he can stay healthy (a reasonably sized "if" given recent history), I have no doubt he'll reach that level again.
For those not convinced even a healthy Dez could return to greatness, consider that he and Dak Prescott are bound to play better together this year. Dez was not always healthy even when he took the field in 2016, so we simply don't know what Dak at his best and Dez at his best can achieve.
And what exactly is "Dak at his best"? Some are predicting a sophomore slump for last season's breakout QB. While I'm comfortable predicting a slight regression to back-end QB1 territory, this has more to do with improved production/health from guys like Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger than from anticipating any significant drop-off for Dak. The Cowboys' new franchise QB was exceptional despite Beasley leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. There will be no slump with a healthy Dez on the field.
And for those who doubt Dez can thrive in a run-first offense, his monster 88/1,320/16 line in 2014 coincided with Dallas attempting the NFL's 31st-most passes (476, vs. the #1 Colts with 661). Dak's 459 pass attempts last year should deter no one from drafting Dez.
Even Dak's deep-throw frequency and ability has been questioned. So I looked at this, too. 9% of his passes last year traveled more than 20 yards, with a completion rate of 37%. In 2014, Romo's numbers were 11% and 44%, respectively. In 2013, 9% and 32%. In 2012, 10% and 31%. These percentages coincided with Dez's huge lines. Saying Dak is "no Tony Romo" when it comes to the deep ball doesn't hold up, and again, when factoring how Romo benefited from Dez's elite production while Dak didn't, there's no good reason to believe Dak's deep-balls will lessen or worsen with Dez around.
There are many good reasons to let someone else draft Dez, and they generally all have to do with his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons. If you don't believe he can play at least 15 games, then trust your instincts.
And let me draft him instead.
So I'm left to justify a popular opinion, which is unfamiliar territory for this page.
It's absolutely true that Dez is a relatively risky top 10 pick, coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons and unable to fall back on his long-time chemistry with Tony Romo--a dynamic many fantasy managers had come to know and love.
But regardless of what we think about past stats, this is a 28-year-old who averaged 91 catches, 1,312 yards, and 14 TDs from 2012 to 2014. In those three seasons he finished third, seventh, and fourth in WR fantasy scoring. A fluke? For three straight years? In his pre-prime?
Dez is one of the few NFL receivers who can single-handedly carry a team. Jason Witten is another year older. Terrance Williams won't suddenly become an elite #2 receiver. And Cole Beasley shined when needed, but will not challenge Dez for aerial supremacy. The fact is, only one Dallas receiver has a chance to be a WR1. If he can stay healthy (a reasonably sized "if" given recent history), I have no doubt he'll reach that level again.
For those not convinced even a healthy Dez could return to greatness, consider that he and Dak Prescott are bound to play better together this year. Dez was not always healthy even when he took the field in 2016, so we simply don't know what Dak at his best and Dez at his best can achieve.
And what exactly is "Dak at his best"? Some are predicting a sophomore slump for last season's breakout QB. While I'm comfortable predicting a slight regression to back-end QB1 territory, this has more to do with improved production/health from guys like Cam Newton, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger than from anticipating any significant drop-off for Dak. The Cowboys' new franchise QB was exceptional despite Beasley leading the team in receptions and receiving yards. There will be no slump with a healthy Dez on the field.
And for those who doubt Dez can thrive in a run-first offense, his monster 88/1,320/16 line in 2014 coincided with Dallas attempting the NFL's 31st-most passes (476, vs. the #1 Colts with 661). Dak's 459 pass attempts last year should deter no one from drafting Dez.
Even Dak's deep-throw frequency and ability has been questioned. So I looked at this, too. 9% of his passes last year traveled more than 20 yards, with a completion rate of 37%. In 2014, Romo's numbers were 11% and 44%, respectively. In 2013, 9% and 32%. In 2012, 10% and 31%. These percentages coincided with Dez's huge lines. Saying Dak is "no Tony Romo" when it comes to the deep ball doesn't hold up, and again, when factoring how Romo benefited from Dez's elite production while Dak didn't, there's no good reason to believe Dak's deep-balls will lessen or worsen with Dez around.
There are many good reasons to let someone else draft Dez, and they generally all have to do with his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons. If you don't believe he can play at least 15 games, then trust your instincts.
And let me draft him instead.