Elite positional players. That's the key to all this. If you've got RBs putting up 14-20 points a game and your opponent's RBs are posting 10-16, you're probably going to win that positional battle. If your TE is a healthy Gronk and the other manager's stuck with Jason Witten, you'll probably win that positional battle, too.
In every draft I want to grab at least two--and hopefully three or more--elite positional players, accrue some near-elite and next-tier-down positional players, and then back-fill with the highest-upside players I can find. I might swing and miss on most players in the late rounds, but one or two hits are all it takes to develop a title-contending roster.
So when it comes to elite positional players, RBs and WRs generally are the first ones off the board. Based on average draft positions in potentially hundreds of thousands of online leagues (as compiled and updated daily by Fantasy Pros), the top 16 players drafted (on average) are RBs and WRs. Pick #17 is a QB. In PPR, the first 21 players are RBs/WRs and one TE (Gronk). That same QB comes in at #22. After the oft-injured Patriots tight end.
That QB is Aaron Rodgers, who's third overall in my Standard rankings and 16th in PPR.
Why is Rodgers getting drafted so late? Why are none of the 92 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts ranking him higher than 9th/30th overall in Standard/PPR? And why is their average rank for Rodgers 29th/34th?
Or you might be asking, "Why is B.J. recommending drafting Rodgers way too early?"
If, like me, you're trying to acquire elite positional players on draft day, and if, like me, you're risk-averse in the early rounds, what's not to like about the Packers' franchise QB? Green Bay runs a pass-friendly offense (check). Their phenomenal receiving corps upgraded at TE this offseason (check). Rodgers is in the prime of his career (check). Rodgers has been a top-2 fantasy QB in seven of the past nine seasons (check-check-check-check-check-check-check).
Really, though, how many other NFL players in the past 50 years have been in the top 2 statistically in seven of nine years? This isn't a fluky stat. This is the definition of near-matchless reliability.
Finally, in most Standard/PPR formats, the scoring gap between elite QBs and top 10-12 QBs is usually greater than any other positional scoring gap. David Johnson's bust-out 2016 season (2,100+ yards and 20 TDs) was more of an statistical outlier than anything Rodgers has done. In general, rostering the #1 QB and the #12 RB puts us at a greater competitive advantage than having the #12 QB and #1 RB.
Most people don't think of drafting a QB in the first round in Standard or second round in PPR. Clearly my view on this is well outside the norm. But based on Rodgers' consistent production, the talent around him, and statistical scoring gaps across various positions, Rodgers is arguably the most underrated top 30-35 player in this year's drafts.
In every draft I want to grab at least two--and hopefully three or more--elite positional players, accrue some near-elite and next-tier-down positional players, and then back-fill with the highest-upside players I can find. I might swing and miss on most players in the late rounds, but one or two hits are all it takes to develop a title-contending roster.
So when it comes to elite positional players, RBs and WRs generally are the first ones off the board. Based on average draft positions in potentially hundreds of thousands of online leagues (as compiled and updated daily by Fantasy Pros), the top 16 players drafted (on average) are RBs and WRs. Pick #17 is a QB. In PPR, the first 21 players are RBs/WRs and one TE (Gronk). That same QB comes in at #22. After the oft-injured Patriots tight end.
That QB is Aaron Rodgers, who's third overall in my Standard rankings and 16th in PPR.
Why is Rodgers getting drafted so late? Why are none of the 92 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts ranking him higher than 9th/30th overall in Standard/PPR? And why is their average rank for Rodgers 29th/34th?
Or you might be asking, "Why is B.J. recommending drafting Rodgers way too early?"
If, like me, you're trying to acquire elite positional players on draft day, and if, like me, you're risk-averse in the early rounds, what's not to like about the Packers' franchise QB? Green Bay runs a pass-friendly offense (check). Their phenomenal receiving corps upgraded at TE this offseason (check). Rodgers is in the prime of his career (check). Rodgers has been a top-2 fantasy QB in seven of the past nine seasons (check-check-check-check-check-check-check).
Really, though, how many other NFL players in the past 50 years have been in the top 2 statistically in seven of nine years? This isn't a fluky stat. This is the definition of near-matchless reliability.
Finally, in most Standard/PPR formats, the scoring gap between elite QBs and top 10-12 QBs is usually greater than any other positional scoring gap. David Johnson's bust-out 2016 season (2,100+ yards and 20 TDs) was more of an statistical outlier than anything Rodgers has done. In general, rostering the #1 QB and the #12 RB puts us at a greater competitive advantage than having the #12 QB and #1 RB.
Most people don't think of drafting a QB in the first round in Standard or second round in PPR. Clearly my view on this is well outside the norm. But based on Rodgers' consistent production, the talent around him, and statistical scoring gaps across various positions, Rodgers is arguably the most underrated top 30-35 player in this year's drafts.