Thoughts on Jay Cutler, and Contrarian Prediction #10: Spencer Ware (RB-18 ADP Standard / RB-19 ADP PPR) Will Not Be a Top 30 RB
With Ryan Tannehill now out for the year and Jay Cutler signed, it's unclear what fantasy impact the QB change will have. Will Cutler play his first 16-game season since 2009? Will he achieve more than his historically middling production. We'll know more in the next couple of weeks.
Here's what I believe: all the hype surrounding Cutler's reunion with Adam Gase is way overblown. Gase was Cutler's offensive coordinator in 2015, when the former Bears QB enjoyed a career-high 92.3 QB rating despite Alshon Jeffery being healthy for only half the season and no other player exceeding 464 yards. It was a patchwork effort culminating in an otherwise forgettable 6-10 season.
Yet there's more to this story. The Bears gave up nearly 25 points per game that season. They were often playing from behind. So I looked up when they scored: 14 of their 34 touchdowns (41%) came in the fourth quarter. 38% of Cutler's 21 TD passes also occurred in the final frame.
Now a score's a score. And various QBs benefit to varying degrees when playing catch-up. But it's odd that Chicago netted only three first-quarter scores all year. Their opponents totaled 15. The Gase-Cutler alliance benefited from having a bad enough defense to warrant more aggressive play-calling late in games.
So the Gase-Cutler reunion storyline is misleading. This doesn't mean Cutler will be a bust; I actually like him as a top 16-20 QB, as long as he can stay healthy. But let's not think Gase will simply magically get the most out of Cutler.
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Nearly two months ago Spencer Ware owned an RB-17 ADP. Today's it's RB-18. By the start of the season, it should be RB30 or worse.
Ware did what he needed to do last year to earn the starting gig once again. Then Kansas City drafted Kareem Hunt, and now all bets are off. While Ware lost four fumbles on 247 touches in 2016, Hunt fumbled only once on 856 college carries--while also forcing the second-most missed tackles in all of college football last year. Ware faded down the stretch last year (5.0 YPC through Week 10 and 3.5 YPC the rest of the way), leading to reasonable questions about whether he can handle a full load. Reports out of camp suggest Hunt is picking things up quickly.
While I'm not comfortable saying Hunt will outperform Ware, it's a distinct possibility. And when considering the potential fantasy unstartability of a top 20 RB like Ware, man, that's not something to gloss over.
84% of fantasy experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place Ware inside the top 30 in PPR, with more than half tagging him as an RB1 or RB2. Meanwhile, 91% of experts list him inside the top 30 in Standard, with three-quarters calling him an RB1 or RB2.
I'm not convinced Ware can hold off Hunt and/or sustain a bell-cow role. He might well run for 4.5+ yards per carry and show effectively in the passing game. But not as a 250-touch back. Not even close.
Here's what I believe: all the hype surrounding Cutler's reunion with Adam Gase is way overblown. Gase was Cutler's offensive coordinator in 2015, when the former Bears QB enjoyed a career-high 92.3 QB rating despite Alshon Jeffery being healthy for only half the season and no other player exceeding 464 yards. It was a patchwork effort culminating in an otherwise forgettable 6-10 season.
Yet there's more to this story. The Bears gave up nearly 25 points per game that season. They were often playing from behind. So I looked up when they scored: 14 of their 34 touchdowns (41%) came in the fourth quarter. 38% of Cutler's 21 TD passes also occurred in the final frame.
Now a score's a score. And various QBs benefit to varying degrees when playing catch-up. But it's odd that Chicago netted only three first-quarter scores all year. Their opponents totaled 15. The Gase-Cutler alliance benefited from having a bad enough defense to warrant more aggressive play-calling late in games.
So the Gase-Cutler reunion storyline is misleading. This doesn't mean Cutler will be a bust; I actually like him as a top 16-20 QB, as long as he can stay healthy. But let's not think Gase will simply magically get the most out of Cutler.
---
Nearly two months ago Spencer Ware owned an RB-17 ADP. Today's it's RB-18. By the start of the season, it should be RB30 or worse.
Ware did what he needed to do last year to earn the starting gig once again. Then Kansas City drafted Kareem Hunt, and now all bets are off. While Ware lost four fumbles on 247 touches in 2016, Hunt fumbled only once on 856 college carries--while also forcing the second-most missed tackles in all of college football last year. Ware faded down the stretch last year (5.0 YPC through Week 10 and 3.5 YPC the rest of the way), leading to reasonable questions about whether he can handle a full load. Reports out of camp suggest Hunt is picking things up quickly.
While I'm not comfortable saying Hunt will outperform Ware, it's a distinct possibility. And when considering the potential fantasy unstartability of a top 20 RB like Ware, man, that's not something to gloss over.
84% of fantasy experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place Ware inside the top 30 in PPR, with more than half tagging him as an RB1 or RB2. Meanwhile, 91% of experts list him inside the top 30 in Standard, with three-quarters calling him an RB1 or RB2.
I'm not convinced Ware can hold off Hunt and/or sustain a bell-cow role. He might well run for 4.5+ yards per carry and show effectively in the passing game. But not as a 250-touch back. Not even close.