Third Annual FF4W Survivor Pool, and Historical Perspective on RB Fantasy Value

Registration for the prestigious (i.e. if you have Internet, you can sign up) FF4W Survivor Pool is now open. Sign up at https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/register/joinprivategroup?gid=2654&password=charlesclay.

Group ID: 2654

Password: charlesclay

The prize is a shout-out on the FF4W blog, a shout-out on Twitter, and a 30-minute phone conversation next preseason to bounce around anything you want to talk about concerning fantasy football: pre-draft strategy, keepers, sleepers, capitalizing on league rule changes, etc.

We've had two champions in two years, which is something we can all be proud of. Hats off to Randy Scoggins (2015) and Mike Hoff (2016) for not only winning this thing, but for publicly admitting it.

---

Last season 19 RBs earned 200+ carries, while 10 had 50+ receptions. I looked back 20 years to see how these numbers stack up. The early 2000's were a time when when drafting RB-RB in rounds 1-2 meant locking in two guys who--when healthy--could likely anchor a fantasy team. Only four times in these past two decades have fewer than 20 RBs racked up 200+ carries; three of those times were in the last three seasons.

Heading into 2017, nine of the first 25 RBs coming off the board (according to national ADP figures) are currently competing for starters' snaps. In my opinion, another three (DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde, and LeGarrette Blount) are in danger of losing their team's bell-cow status by midseason (see my earlier post on Murray and Derrick Henry if you think this is crazy--and after reading it, you might still think I'm crazy). And of course, who knows what will happen with Ezekiel Elliott by the fantasy playoffs.

So over half of this year's top 25 fantasy RBs carry significant risks heading into Week 1. And in all likelihood, about half won't clear 200+ rushing attempts.

This is what we're up against as fantasy drafters. It's why in-season management/adjustments often win titles. We might yet return to a heyday of high-volume running backs. But I doubt it: Larry Johnson's single-season record of 416 carries seems pretty safe.