This week some of you have asked how I approach TEs in fantasy drafts. Whether you're in a league where TEs get special treatment (like 1.5 points per reception vs. only 1 for RBs/WRs) or are treated like every other flex player, here's my basic strategy:
(1) Not surprisingly, it's about finding value. For example, this year I'm ranking Travis Kelce first among TEs and 27th/22nd overall in PPR/Standard. Compared to his overall ADP of 35, that's pretty aggressive. My take is that last year Kelce scored on par with a back-end WR2 and a back-end RB1. Yet he scored only four times, suggesting his numbers have plenty of room to go up. And with Jeremy Maclin gone, Kelce is now the clear co-#1 target of Alex Smith or, eventually, Patrick Mahomes. If I'm picking 10th in a 10-team league, it means I'm picking 30th and 31st. If Kelce's still around, it's a value play: draft a top-2 TE with more health dependability than Gronk, knowing that he'll be gone by the time the draft gets back to me.
(2) For every position, I assemble three highly underrated targets at each position. Throughout the draft, I'm tracking when an opponent snatches up one of these guys--a cue for me to pounce on one of the other two before they're gone. At the TE position, heading into my draft several weeks ago, I wanted at least one of these three highly undervalued (in my opinion) TEs: Austin Hooper, Coby Fleener, and Eric Ebron. Keep in mind that my draft was something like 24 rounds, so you'd better have at least two TEs rostered, because no one's left by the end. At the time, Hooper's and Fleener's positional ADPs inexplicably were in the 20s, while Ebron was around 15. So after about 10 TEs were off the board, I started paying closer attention to this position, trying to time it right so I'd land at least two of them. I ended up with Ebron and Fleener far later than they should have gone, as I believe both are likely top 10 TEs if they remain healthy. But the point is, targeting three underrated TEs--based on sound research--frees us up to focus on other positions until much later in the draft.
(3) In deep leagues with short benches, I avoid big injury risks. That includes Gronk, Ebron, and even Tyler Eifert. Last year the drop-off between the #1 and #16 TEs was larger than that of WRs, Ks, and DSTs. In 10-team leagues with four-player benches, I can afford to take a chance on a high-upside injury risk a low-end TE1 shouldn't be hard to find on waivers. But that all changes when you're looking at a 100-125 point drop-off for being forced to replace a guy you knew had a 25%-50% chance of missing several games.
(4) Don't buy into the "rookie QB needs a safety valve" misconception. I hear this all the time: "Draft TE A because a rookie's throwing to him, and rookie QBs always connect more with their TEs." If you can find proof of this, please tell me. I haven't found anything beyond spotty anecdotal examples. A great QB--regardless of experience--will benefit a great TE if the team game-plans to that TE. If the TE is the sixth option on offense, it usually doesn't matter how good/bad or (in)experienced the QB is.
(5) Targets matter more than TDs. Kyle Rudolph didn't have his best season since 2012 merely because he scored a bunch (though that obviously helped). He was targeted more than any other TE: 132 times, and his most since--you guessed it--2012. In 2016, the 10 most targeted TEs all finished in the top 12. Cameron Brate and Martellus Bennett--who tied for first and third among TE TDs, respectively--were the other two. Yes, we can kind of assess which tight ends will be greater red zone targets. But the variability of TE TDs predictions is far greater than the variability of TE target predictions. Draft what can be easily assessed: a TE's likelihood of being a key part of a team's offense.
(1) Not surprisingly, it's about finding value. For example, this year I'm ranking Travis Kelce first among TEs and 27th/22nd overall in PPR/Standard. Compared to his overall ADP of 35, that's pretty aggressive. My take is that last year Kelce scored on par with a back-end WR2 and a back-end RB1. Yet he scored only four times, suggesting his numbers have plenty of room to go up. And with Jeremy Maclin gone, Kelce is now the clear co-#1 target of Alex Smith or, eventually, Patrick Mahomes. If I'm picking 10th in a 10-team league, it means I'm picking 30th and 31st. If Kelce's still around, it's a value play: draft a top-2 TE with more health dependability than Gronk, knowing that he'll be gone by the time the draft gets back to me.
(2) For every position, I assemble three highly underrated targets at each position. Throughout the draft, I'm tracking when an opponent snatches up one of these guys--a cue for me to pounce on one of the other two before they're gone. At the TE position, heading into my draft several weeks ago, I wanted at least one of these three highly undervalued (in my opinion) TEs: Austin Hooper, Coby Fleener, and Eric Ebron. Keep in mind that my draft was something like 24 rounds, so you'd better have at least two TEs rostered, because no one's left by the end. At the time, Hooper's and Fleener's positional ADPs inexplicably were in the 20s, while Ebron was around 15. So after about 10 TEs were off the board, I started paying closer attention to this position, trying to time it right so I'd land at least two of them. I ended up with Ebron and Fleener far later than they should have gone, as I believe both are likely top 10 TEs if they remain healthy. But the point is, targeting three underrated TEs--based on sound research--frees us up to focus on other positions until much later in the draft.
(3) In deep leagues with short benches, I avoid big injury risks. That includes Gronk, Ebron, and even Tyler Eifert. Last year the drop-off between the #1 and #16 TEs was larger than that of WRs, Ks, and DSTs. In 10-team leagues with four-player benches, I can afford to take a chance on a high-upside injury risk a low-end TE1 shouldn't be hard to find on waivers. But that all changes when you're looking at a 100-125 point drop-off for being forced to replace a guy you knew had a 25%-50% chance of missing several games.
(4) Don't buy into the "rookie QB needs a safety valve" misconception. I hear this all the time: "Draft TE A because a rookie's throwing to him, and rookie QBs always connect more with their TEs." If you can find proof of this, please tell me. I haven't found anything beyond spotty anecdotal examples. A great QB--regardless of experience--will benefit a great TE if the team game-plans to that TE. If the TE is the sixth option on offense, it usually doesn't matter how good/bad or (in)experienced the QB is.
(5) Targets matter more than TDs. Kyle Rudolph didn't have his best season since 2012 merely because he scored a bunch (though that obviously helped). He was targeted more than any other TE: 132 times, and his most since--you guessed it--2012. In 2016, the 10 most targeted TEs all finished in the top 12. Cameron Brate and Martellus Bennett--who tied for first and third among TE TDs, respectively--were the other two. Yes, we can kind of assess which tight ends will be greater red zone targets. But the variability of TE TDs predictions is far greater than the variability of TE target predictions. Draft what can be easily assessed: a TE's likelihood of being a key part of a team's offense.