The final installment of my division-by-division RB rundown combines traditional bell-cows with who-knows-what-where-when:
NFC West
Cardinals -- Last preseason, some notable fantasy people believed David Johnson and Chris Johnson were neck-and-neck in the #1 RB competition--a theory fed by people like Arizona offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, who pushed the "hot hand" narrative. Maybe that was the team's intention all along. But let's face it: the difference between David and Chris last summer was night and day. Only a year later, David is fantasy's almost universal #1 overall pick. I had the #1 pick in my draft and grabbed him without hesitation. That said, the one thing that can bring him down is his 373-touch 2016 season--a high total by any standard. He'll be the unquestionable workhorse unless he breaks down. At the handcuff position, my money's on Kerwynn Williams earning the most carries if David gets hurt. The nearly 32-year-old Chris Johnson has little left in the tank, while Andre Ellington is an often-injured, situational back.
Rams -- Todd Gurley was one of last season's biggest fantasy busts because of his draft position (top 2-3 in most cases). But his sputtering somehow led to the 15th most RB fantasy points. Imagine what he can do if that 3.2 YPC swells to 4.0. Additionally, the Rams made an effort last year to involve him more in the passing game, leading to a meaningful uptick in receptions from 2015. He caught another 12 balls this preseason, suggesting he could become a more complete back in 2017. Malcolm Brown will back him up, and his value has pushed upward since news that Lance Dunbar would miss at least the first six games. Brown offers change-of-pace value and could be, along with Arizona's Kerwynn Williams, a top 10 handcuff heading into Week 1.
Seahawks -- Probably the NFL's most interesting backfield competition, Seattle has an embarrassment of riches on paper. Eddie Lacy was phenomenal in 2013 and 2014, then took a step back because of weight issues in 2015, and then was on his way to a solid rebound season before getting hurt last October. All summer I've tagged him as one of the most overrated NFL "starters"--a player to avoid on draft day. That's still the case. Thomas Rawls is arguably more talented, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy in two NFL seasons and one very important preseason. C.J. Prosise flashed brilliantly last year, yet he too can't shake the injury bug. And so it's 7th rounder Chris Carson who's slowly making his way up the depth chart--if not officially--then at least figuratively. If Rawls and Prosise aren't ready to go Week 1, then Carson could control his own destiny with a strong start alongside Lacy. Carson offers the most value because of his abysmal ADP. This is a backfield that needs to be monitored daily.
49ers -- As much as I've knocked Carlos Hyde the past two summers, he remains the bell-cow until/unless it's taken away from him. He's not in my top 30, and I believe it's only a matter of time before he gets hurt or he falters enough to open the door for others. But many sensible people believe otherwise, so it's wait-and-see for now. The Niners have been using rookie Matt Breida as their #2, which means I apparently swung and missed when drafting Joe Williams. Williams isn't done yet, particularly in dynasty. But he now has a steeper climb. Also don't count out veteran Tim Hightower, who came out of retirement a couple years ago and has filled in admirably whenever needed. I see no reason to value any of these backups as anything more than bottom-10 handcuffs given the depth chart fluidity and relatively weak offense.
NFC West
Cardinals -- Last preseason, some notable fantasy people believed David Johnson and Chris Johnson were neck-and-neck in the #1 RB competition--a theory fed by people like Arizona offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, who pushed the "hot hand" narrative. Maybe that was the team's intention all along. But let's face it: the difference between David and Chris last summer was night and day. Only a year later, David is fantasy's almost universal #1 overall pick. I had the #1 pick in my draft and grabbed him without hesitation. That said, the one thing that can bring him down is his 373-touch 2016 season--a high total by any standard. He'll be the unquestionable workhorse unless he breaks down. At the handcuff position, my money's on Kerwynn Williams earning the most carries if David gets hurt. The nearly 32-year-old Chris Johnson has little left in the tank, while Andre Ellington is an often-injured, situational back.
Rams -- Todd Gurley was one of last season's biggest fantasy busts because of his draft position (top 2-3 in most cases). But his sputtering somehow led to the 15th most RB fantasy points. Imagine what he can do if that 3.2 YPC swells to 4.0. Additionally, the Rams made an effort last year to involve him more in the passing game, leading to a meaningful uptick in receptions from 2015. He caught another 12 balls this preseason, suggesting he could become a more complete back in 2017. Malcolm Brown will back him up, and his value has pushed upward since news that Lance Dunbar would miss at least the first six games. Brown offers change-of-pace value and could be, along with Arizona's Kerwynn Williams, a top 10 handcuff heading into Week 1.
Seahawks -- Probably the NFL's most interesting backfield competition, Seattle has an embarrassment of riches on paper. Eddie Lacy was phenomenal in 2013 and 2014, then took a step back because of weight issues in 2015, and then was on his way to a solid rebound season before getting hurt last October. All summer I've tagged him as one of the most overrated NFL "starters"--a player to avoid on draft day. That's still the case. Thomas Rawls is arguably more talented, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy in two NFL seasons and one very important preseason. C.J. Prosise flashed brilliantly last year, yet he too can't shake the injury bug. And so it's 7th rounder Chris Carson who's slowly making his way up the depth chart--if not officially--then at least figuratively. If Rawls and Prosise aren't ready to go Week 1, then Carson could control his own destiny with a strong start alongside Lacy. Carson offers the most value because of his abysmal ADP. This is a backfield that needs to be monitored daily.
49ers -- As much as I've knocked Carlos Hyde the past two summers, he remains the bell-cow until/unless it's taken away from him. He's not in my top 30, and I believe it's only a matter of time before he gets hurt or he falters enough to open the door for others. But many sensible people believe otherwise, so it's wait-and-see for now. The Niners have been using rookie Matt Breida as their #2, which means I apparently swung and missed when drafting Joe Williams. Williams isn't done yet, particularly in dynasty. But he now has a steeper climb. Also don't count out veteran Tim Hightower, who came out of retirement a couple years ago and has filled in admirably whenever needed. I see no reason to value any of these backups as anything more than bottom-10 handcuffs given the depth chart fluidity and relatively weak offense.