Nearing the end of my division-by-division RB rundown, here's my quick take on the NFC South's backfields:
NFC SOUTH
Bucs -- With an overall ADP of 72, Doug Martin is the only Tampa Bay RB I want on my roster, and yet even he comes with serious red flags. One year he's hurt and ineffective. The next year he's an RB1. Rinse and repeat. The expectation is that when he returns from his three-game suspension, Martin will begin to re-assert himself as a reliable 15+ touch back, capable of posting 8-14 points most weeks. Again, I'm more than willing to take a chance on this near-universal sixth/seventh rounder. Jacquizz Rodgers? Not so much. Before last season, the 27-year-old had endured five straight years with sub-4.0 YPC. Charles Sims' presence will limit Rodgers' PPR appeal while Martin's out, and I doubt he'll be startable at all when Martin returns. And speaking of Sims, the pass-catching specialist is a solid flyer in very deep PPR leagues. This is the same guy who was the 22nd highest scoring PPR RB in 2015. The talent is there. The question is whether he'll get consistent opportunities. Worth a late-round bet.
Falcons -- There's not much to discuss here. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman enter another season as arguably the league's best one-two backfield punch. Coleman is deceptively undervalued at his RB-26 ADP because people seem to be ignoring the fact he missed three games last year. Despite that, he was the 19th highest scoring PPR RB. He's a fifth/sixth round steal.
Panthers -- Rookie Christian McCaffrey has been brilliant this preseason and appears ready to make an instant impact on the field and in fantasy. Admittedly I was skeptical in June and July. But Jonathan Stewart probably won't clear 150 touches even if he can make it through every game (something he hasn't done since 2011). The problem with McCaffrey is an unrealistic RB-12/Overall-26 ADP. That's a steep price to pay for a guy competing for touches with Cam, Stewart, Kelvin, Olsen, Funchess, and potentially Samuel.
Saints -- New Orleans' backfield could shift from one week to the next. That's because Mark Ingram usually misses multiple games (has played in more than 13 only twice in six seasons), and the 32-year-old Adrian Peterson could be amazing, awful, acceptable, or lost for the season with a Week 1 injury. Ironically, the seemingly most dependable option is rookie Alvin Kamara. I'm not saying Kamara's the best option. But if you're drafting all three guys at their current universal value, Kamara has the highest probability of meeting or exceeding expectations. His PPR/Standard RB ADP is 53/62. So grab him late in your draft; he's highly likely to be no worse than a direct handcuff to Ingram or AP (whoever's still standing by midseason), and he could earn his way to a larger role.
NFC SOUTH
Bucs -- With an overall ADP of 72, Doug Martin is the only Tampa Bay RB I want on my roster, and yet even he comes with serious red flags. One year he's hurt and ineffective. The next year he's an RB1. Rinse and repeat. The expectation is that when he returns from his three-game suspension, Martin will begin to re-assert himself as a reliable 15+ touch back, capable of posting 8-14 points most weeks. Again, I'm more than willing to take a chance on this near-universal sixth/seventh rounder. Jacquizz Rodgers? Not so much. Before last season, the 27-year-old had endured five straight years with sub-4.0 YPC. Charles Sims' presence will limit Rodgers' PPR appeal while Martin's out, and I doubt he'll be startable at all when Martin returns. And speaking of Sims, the pass-catching specialist is a solid flyer in very deep PPR leagues. This is the same guy who was the 22nd highest scoring PPR RB in 2015. The talent is there. The question is whether he'll get consistent opportunities. Worth a late-round bet.
Falcons -- There's not much to discuss here. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman enter another season as arguably the league's best one-two backfield punch. Coleman is deceptively undervalued at his RB-26 ADP because people seem to be ignoring the fact he missed three games last year. Despite that, he was the 19th highest scoring PPR RB. He's a fifth/sixth round steal.
Panthers -- Rookie Christian McCaffrey has been brilliant this preseason and appears ready to make an instant impact on the field and in fantasy. Admittedly I was skeptical in June and July. But Jonathan Stewart probably won't clear 150 touches even if he can make it through every game (something he hasn't done since 2011). The problem with McCaffrey is an unrealistic RB-12/Overall-26 ADP. That's a steep price to pay for a guy competing for touches with Cam, Stewart, Kelvin, Olsen, Funchess, and potentially Samuel.
Saints -- New Orleans' backfield could shift from one week to the next. That's because Mark Ingram usually misses multiple games (has played in more than 13 only twice in six seasons), and the 32-year-old Adrian Peterson could be amazing, awful, acceptable, or lost for the season with a Week 1 injury. Ironically, the seemingly most dependable option is rookie Alvin Kamara. I'm not saying Kamara's the best option. But if you're drafting all three guys at their current universal value, Kamara has the highest probability of meeting or exceeding expectations. His PPR/Standard RB ADP is 53/62. So grab him late in your draft; he's highly likely to be no worse than a direct handcuff to Ingram or AP (whoever's still standing by midseason), and he could earn his way to a larger role.