For a couple days last week I ran down RB values on each AFC team. Today let's tackle the NFC East:
NFC EAST
Cowboys -- Five years from now Ezekiel Elliott will be known either as a future Hall-of-Famer or a flame-out. Whether or not you believe he's guilty of the various things he's been accused of doing, he is teetering on a tightrope of greatness. If you believe he'll be playing and dominating in the fantasy playoffs--that either his appeal will be overturned (unlikely), his suspension will be reduced (unlikely) or his suspension won't interfere with weeks 14-16--then he's a great get in the third round. Fantasy is about upside, and Elliott has more of it than 98% of the draftable players out there. Beyond Elliott, the nearly 30-year-old Darren McFadden had been expected to carry the load in his absence. But let's remember DMC is one of the biggest RB injury risks out there and has topped 3.6 YPC only one season (2015) in the past five. His 44/42 Standard/PPR RB-ADP is simply too aggressive. While I'm not buying into the second coming of Alfred Morris, this has all the makings of a hot-hand RBBC, with two declining, aging RBs and a dose of Ronnie Hillman / Rod Smith making none of these guys reliable fantasy starters while Elliott sits.
Eagles -- Four guys in Philly will get some occasional fantasy love this season. It starts with the overvalued LeGarrette Blount, who at nearly 31 years old is coming off a personal high of 299 carries (98 more than his previous high in 2010) and a fluky 18 TDs on sub-4.0 YPC. Rarely used in the passing game, Blount's one-dimensional utility will make fantasy managers wish they hadn't burned a fifth rounder on him by midseason, if not earlier. Backup Wendell Smallwood is virtually undraftable, which makes some sense given how many RBs are vying for touches. But he had a terrific camp last year and is runnning behind one of the NFC's most vulnerable RB starters. In the passing game, the ageless 34-year-old Darren Sproles is locked in as a top 35-40 PPR RB as long as he remains healthy. Why not a top 25 RB, per last year's numbers? Because he finally has some competition in rookie Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey is a useful PPR flyer in larger leagues, particularly with the gap left by Jordan Matthews' departure (which Nelson Agholor--despite the hype--won't entirely fill.
Giants -- I passed on Paul Perkins when he fell to me in my draft several weeks ago, and I'd do it again today. The sense from many fantasy experts entering this season was that Perkins was groomed as a rookie to eventually replace Rashad Jennings, and now no one's standing in his way. Except he and Orleans Darkwa have been splitting first-team carries. And Shane Vereen is a painfully underrated passing-game specialist. While Wayne Gallman and Shaun Draughn might not get involved, this will be a pass-friendly team aided by a collection of RBs with sporadic value--with Vereen owning the highest floor, particularly in PPR.
Redskins -- I still don't understand why Washington drafted Samaje Perine to compete with Rob Kelley. I promoted Kelley last preseason while warning readers that Matt Jones was a bust waiting to happen. Kelley took over in Week 8 and never looked back, scoring six times in nine games and running well for a largely unheralded 24-year-old rookie. He also didn't lose any fumbles--something that prematurely ended Matt Jones' tenure as a starter, and something Perine did four times in two seasons at Oklahoma. In fact, Perine's fumbling has carried over into August. Kelley is slightly underrated as his current ADP and should get 200+ touches if he at least matches last year's efficiency. Perine will start the season as a "maybe" handcuff, while the underrated Chris Thompson will once again work in the passing game while also potentially earning handcuff duties if Kelley goes down.
NFC EAST
Cowboys -- Five years from now Ezekiel Elliott will be known either as a future Hall-of-Famer or a flame-out. Whether or not you believe he's guilty of the various things he's been accused of doing, he is teetering on a tightrope of greatness. If you believe he'll be playing and dominating in the fantasy playoffs--that either his appeal will be overturned (unlikely), his suspension will be reduced (unlikely) or his suspension won't interfere with weeks 14-16--then he's a great get in the third round. Fantasy is about upside, and Elliott has more of it than 98% of the draftable players out there. Beyond Elliott, the nearly 30-year-old Darren McFadden had been expected to carry the load in his absence. But let's remember DMC is one of the biggest RB injury risks out there and has topped 3.6 YPC only one season (2015) in the past five. His 44/42 Standard/PPR RB-ADP is simply too aggressive. While I'm not buying into the second coming of Alfred Morris, this has all the makings of a hot-hand RBBC, with two declining, aging RBs and a dose of Ronnie Hillman / Rod Smith making none of these guys reliable fantasy starters while Elliott sits.
Eagles -- Four guys in Philly will get some occasional fantasy love this season. It starts with the overvalued LeGarrette Blount, who at nearly 31 years old is coming off a personal high of 299 carries (98 more than his previous high in 2010) and a fluky 18 TDs on sub-4.0 YPC. Rarely used in the passing game, Blount's one-dimensional utility will make fantasy managers wish they hadn't burned a fifth rounder on him by midseason, if not earlier. Backup Wendell Smallwood is virtually undraftable, which makes some sense given how many RBs are vying for touches. But he had a terrific camp last year and is runnning behind one of the NFC's most vulnerable RB starters. In the passing game, the ageless 34-year-old Darren Sproles is locked in as a top 35-40 PPR RB as long as he remains healthy. Why not a top 25 RB, per last year's numbers? Because he finally has some competition in rookie Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey is a useful PPR flyer in larger leagues, particularly with the gap left by Jordan Matthews' departure (which Nelson Agholor--despite the hype--won't entirely fill.
Giants -- I passed on Paul Perkins when he fell to me in my draft several weeks ago, and I'd do it again today. The sense from many fantasy experts entering this season was that Perkins was groomed as a rookie to eventually replace Rashad Jennings, and now no one's standing in his way. Except he and Orleans Darkwa have been splitting first-team carries. And Shane Vereen is a painfully underrated passing-game specialist. While Wayne Gallman and Shaun Draughn might not get involved, this will be a pass-friendly team aided by a collection of RBs with sporadic value--with Vereen owning the highest floor, particularly in PPR.
Redskins -- I still don't understand why Washington drafted Samaje Perine to compete with Rob Kelley. I promoted Kelley last preseason while warning readers that Matt Jones was a bust waiting to happen. Kelley took over in Week 8 and never looked back, scoring six times in nine games and running well for a largely unheralded 24-year-old rookie. He also didn't lose any fumbles--something that prematurely ended Matt Jones' tenure as a starter, and something Perine did four times in two seasons at Oklahoma. In fact, Perine's fumbling has carried over into August. Kelley is slightly underrated as his current ADP and should get 200+ touches if he at least matches last year's efficiency. Perine will start the season as a "maybe" handcuff, while the underrated Chris Thompson will once again work in the passing game while also potentially earning handcuff duties if Kelley goes down.