A couple days ago I walked through the somewhat-to-very fantasy-relevant RBs int he AFC East and North. Next up: the AFC South and West.
AFC SOUTH
Colts -- Frank Gore is 34 and hasn't missed a game since he was 27. Something has to give, right? Maybe. Back-to-back sub-4.0 YPC seasons--the first two of his career--coupled with the inevitable risks of advancing age suggest Gore will need a minor miracle to replicate last year's RB1 production--or even top 20 production. Among his backups, most of the preseason buzz is going to journeyman Robert Turbin. While he could start the season directly behind Gore, rookie Marlon Mack is the best value pick in this backfield.
Jaguars -- When Leonard Fournette was selected 4th overall in this year's NFL draft, it was assumed the uninspiring play of T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory would catapult the rookie to bell-cow status. Not so, at least not yet. Yeldon caught 50 balls last year and could carve out pass-catching opportunities out of the gate, while Ivory has been linked to a short-yardage role. To be clear, Fournette easily has the highest upside and is almost guaranteed to lead the ground attack. But his two backups are fully draftable in deep leagues as both handcuffs and as potential RB5/6 part-time players.
Texans -- As disappointing as Lamar Miller seemed to be last season (he was widely viewed as a near-elite RB last preseason), he was on pace for back-end RB1 production had he played all 16 games. Meanwhile, the team was 29th in the NFL in passing yards . . . but eighth in rushing yards. Betting on Miller means betting the passing game will improve just enough to open up the running game. I'm taking that bet. Backing him up will be veteran Alfred Blue (100+ rushing attempts in each of the past three years), rookie D'Onta Foreman, and/or one of my favorite completely undrafted RBs, Tyler Ervin. Foreman is the fashionable pick and is most likely to serve as Miller's handcuff eventually. But I'm not anywhere close to locking him in yet; this remains an open competition. Keep in mind Miller racked up a career-high 299 touches this past year in only 14 games. In March Texans coach Bill O'Brien acknowledged that Miller's workload was too big early last season--something I harped on in late September when warning of overusage: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/09/buy-low-sell-high-players.html. Miller's backup should carve out a role immediately and will be a must-roster handcuff in deep leagues.
Titans -- You've heard my thoughts on Tennessee's backfield--that DeMarco Murray is overrated and Derrick Henry's underrated. The law of averages dictates at least one of these guys should be healthy each week. But you never know. So who's in line to serve as the #3 RB? David Fluellen is currently listed there on the team's official depth chart, and appears to be competing with seventh-round rookie Khalfani Muhammad. But last week the Titans felt the need to sign the 24-year-old Brandon Radcliff. Whether a reaction to Murray's injured hamstring or dissatisfaction with the backups, we probably won't know who has the upper hand unless Murray or Henry are sidelined.
AFC WEST
Broncos -- Denver's Week 17 RB rotation could look very different than it does now. C.J. Anderson ran inefficiently in five of seven games last year--though a case could be made that it was more the o-line's fault. The team has overhauled the line heading into this year, but it might be too late for Anderson, who's competing with Jamaal "Let's Try One More Time" Charles. Coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries, Charles could win the starting job outright, play a complementary role to limit his injury risk, or get knocked out for the year; all three are reasonable expectations, which is one reason this backfield is so hard to predict. Devontae Booker's presence further complicates things. Despite running poorly as a starter last season, he's talented enough to hover in relevancy in case Anderson or Charles go down. Rookie De'Angelo Williams is a terrific athlete who could start the season as the team's #3. And in case anyone's wondering, ignore Stevan Ridley.
Chargers -- The Kenneth Farrow Experiment fell flat when the rookie was handed two fantasy playoff starts, collecting only 94 yards on 31 carries in weeks 14 and 15. Branden Oliver--one of three San Diego RBs knocked out for the season, which seems to be the norm for this franchise in recent years--returns as Melvin Gordon's likely handcuff. Not that Oliver has run well in two partial NFL seasons. But competing with Farrow, Kenjon Barner, and Andre Williams, Oliver is the most NFL-ready of the group.
Chiefs -- I recent wrote about Spencer Ware--that he's severely overvalued and is more likely than not to be outdone by rookie Kareem Hunt. That said, both guys should figure into this offense, leaving us to make sense of the battle for the #3 job. While Charcandrick West was one of my favorite darkhorses two summers ago, he's no lock to earn touches after a very disappointing 2016 campaign. Almost-retired C.J. Spiller is still trying to latch on somewhere, four years removed from his last productive season. Predicting who will win this battle is like predicting which lottery ticket I'm holding will make me a millionaire; the answer is probably "neither." Given Kansas City's run-heavy disposition, if Hunt or Ware are sidelined, I'm betting they'll sign someone to compete for the handcuff role.
Raiders -- I've been vocal about my distrust of Marshawn Lynch's fantasy outlook. He will not be the workhorse anticipated by many, and he won't be the same player we watched (often in awe) earlier this decade. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington were outstanding in limited roles last season, and both enter this year as full-fledged complementary handcuffs. So while this is a tough situation for fantasy managers, Raiders fans can rejoice in a running game that's talented and deep. Rookie Elijah Hood might be generating more camp buzz if he weren't a fourth-stringer. The big takeaway is that Richard is currently #2 on the depth chart and was a bit more productive than Washington last year. However, on average he's getting drafted a couple of rounds before Washington, making Washington the most undervalued Oakland RB based on ADP.
AFC SOUTH
Colts -- Frank Gore is 34 and hasn't missed a game since he was 27. Something has to give, right? Maybe. Back-to-back sub-4.0 YPC seasons--the first two of his career--coupled with the inevitable risks of advancing age suggest Gore will need a minor miracle to replicate last year's RB1 production--or even top 20 production. Among his backups, most of the preseason buzz is going to journeyman Robert Turbin. While he could start the season directly behind Gore, rookie Marlon Mack is the best value pick in this backfield.
Jaguars -- When Leonard Fournette was selected 4th overall in this year's NFL draft, it was assumed the uninspiring play of T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory would catapult the rookie to bell-cow status. Not so, at least not yet. Yeldon caught 50 balls last year and could carve out pass-catching opportunities out of the gate, while Ivory has been linked to a short-yardage role. To be clear, Fournette easily has the highest upside and is almost guaranteed to lead the ground attack. But his two backups are fully draftable in deep leagues as both handcuffs and as potential RB5/6 part-time players.
Texans -- As disappointing as Lamar Miller seemed to be last season (he was widely viewed as a near-elite RB last preseason), he was on pace for back-end RB1 production had he played all 16 games. Meanwhile, the team was 29th in the NFL in passing yards . . . but eighth in rushing yards. Betting on Miller means betting the passing game will improve just enough to open up the running game. I'm taking that bet. Backing him up will be veteran Alfred Blue (100+ rushing attempts in each of the past three years), rookie D'Onta Foreman, and/or one of my favorite completely undrafted RBs, Tyler Ervin. Foreman is the fashionable pick and is most likely to serve as Miller's handcuff eventually. But I'm not anywhere close to locking him in yet; this remains an open competition. Keep in mind Miller racked up a career-high 299 touches this past year in only 14 games. In March Texans coach Bill O'Brien acknowledged that Miller's workload was too big early last season--something I harped on in late September when warning of overusage: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/09/buy-low-sell-high-players.html. Miller's backup should carve out a role immediately and will be a must-roster handcuff in deep leagues.
Titans -- You've heard my thoughts on Tennessee's backfield--that DeMarco Murray is overrated and Derrick Henry's underrated. The law of averages dictates at least one of these guys should be healthy each week. But you never know. So who's in line to serve as the #3 RB? David Fluellen is currently listed there on the team's official depth chart, and appears to be competing with seventh-round rookie Khalfani Muhammad. But last week the Titans felt the need to sign the 24-year-old Brandon Radcliff. Whether a reaction to Murray's injured hamstring or dissatisfaction with the backups, we probably won't know who has the upper hand unless Murray or Henry are sidelined.
AFC WEST
Broncos -- Denver's Week 17 RB rotation could look very different than it does now. C.J. Anderson ran inefficiently in five of seven games last year--though a case could be made that it was more the o-line's fault. The team has overhauled the line heading into this year, but it might be too late for Anderson, who's competing with Jamaal "Let's Try One More Time" Charles. Coming off back-to-back season-ending injuries, Charles could win the starting job outright, play a complementary role to limit his injury risk, or get knocked out for the year; all three are reasonable expectations, which is one reason this backfield is so hard to predict. Devontae Booker's presence further complicates things. Despite running poorly as a starter last season, he's talented enough to hover in relevancy in case Anderson or Charles go down. Rookie De'Angelo Williams is a terrific athlete who could start the season as the team's #3. And in case anyone's wondering, ignore Stevan Ridley.
Chargers -- The Kenneth Farrow Experiment fell flat when the rookie was handed two fantasy playoff starts, collecting only 94 yards on 31 carries in weeks 14 and 15. Branden Oliver--one of three San Diego RBs knocked out for the season, which seems to be the norm for this franchise in recent years--returns as Melvin Gordon's likely handcuff. Not that Oliver has run well in two partial NFL seasons. But competing with Farrow, Kenjon Barner, and Andre Williams, Oliver is the most NFL-ready of the group.
Chiefs -- I recent wrote about Spencer Ware--that he's severely overvalued and is more likely than not to be outdone by rookie Kareem Hunt. That said, both guys should figure into this offense, leaving us to make sense of the battle for the #3 job. While Charcandrick West was one of my favorite darkhorses two summers ago, he's no lock to earn touches after a very disappointing 2016 campaign. Almost-retired C.J. Spiller is still trying to latch on somewhere, four years removed from his last productive season. Predicting who will win this battle is like predicting which lottery ticket I'm holding will make me a millionaire; the answer is probably "neither." Given Kansas City's run-heavy disposition, if Hunt or Ware are sidelined, I'm betting they'll sign someone to compete for the handcuff role.
Raiders -- I've been vocal about my distrust of Marshawn Lynch's fantasy outlook. He will not be the workhorse anticipated by many, and he won't be the same player we watched (often in awe) earlier this decade. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington were outstanding in limited roles last season, and both enter this year as full-fledged complementary handcuffs. So while this is a tough situation for fantasy managers, Raiders fans can rejoice in a running game that's talented and deep. Rookie Elijah Hood might be generating more camp buzz if he weren't a fourth-stringer. The big takeaway is that Richard is currently #2 on the depth chart and was a bit more productive than Washington last year. However, on average he's getting drafted a couple of rounds before Washington, making Washington the most undervalued Oakland RB based on ADP.