Over the next few days I'd like to quickly walk through most NFL running backs--whether draftable or even remotely fantasy relevant. The point is to make sense of each team's current (and potential future) position battles, so we can see where there might be value.
AFC EAST
Bills -- LeSean McCoy is the clear-cut #1, while Jonathan Williams is the clear-cut #2. But Williams' hamstring injury last night needs to be monitored the rest of the month. It's possible Buffalo will keep him out of the remaining preseason games. Among Buffalo's three other rostered RBs, only one (Joe Banyard) has played an NFL snap, with only 23 carries in four seasons. If Williams can't shake his injury this year (a possibility whenever hamstrings are involved), my money will be on Buffalo signing a free agent to handcuff McCoy until Williams returns.
Dolphins -- I'm still not sold on Jay Ajayi, though I'm not ready to knock him out of my top 16 RBs. While Damien Williams is #2 on the depth chart, Kenyan Drake holds the most value relative to his draft position. Williams has never cracked 3.7 YPC in three NFL seasons, though he's useful in the passing game. Drake is a more complete back and should leap Williams at some point this season. That Ajayi recently missed a week with a concussion is a reminder of how quickly one of Miami's backups could become a huge waiver pickup later this year.
Jets -- Matt Forte missed a week with a hamstring injury. Bilal Powell missed time with a neck injury. Elijah McGuire is a likely low-ceiling plodder even if he's handed starter snaps--particularly in this questionable (generously speaking) offense. Outside of a solid TD total, Forte is coming off the worst season of his nine-year career and won't suddenly be reborn at age 31/32. Powell is the back to roster if you don't reach too high, though it's hard to imagine any Jet RB exceeding ADP expectations.
Patriots -- I shared thoughts about Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead yesterday, so no need to be redundant. There are more Patriot backfield variations than there are reasonably possible New England win-loss records. (13-3 or 14-2? Can't decide.) It's inconceivable that these two and James White and Dion Lewis will be fantasy relevant. It's almost as inconceivable that three of the four will play meaningful roles. Right now, Gillislee and White are the favorites, with White being the most likely Patriot back to contribute (i.e highest floor).
AFC NORTH
Bengals -- Is Joe Mixon starting? Or Jeremy Hill? Will Gio Bernard have a consistent role? A fascinating position battle is shaping up in Cincy. Those of you who recall just how dominant Hill can be (2014 feels like a long time ago) probably can understand why he's still on so many fantasy radars. But let's face it: this is all about Mixon. If the rookie proves to be a capable pass protector, he has more than sufficient RB skills to be the team's 16+ touch backfield leader. I'm still betting on Mixon to lead the RB corps--but only if he proves NFL ready with some of the fundamentals Coach Marvin Lewis is looking for.
Browns -- Last season I thought Duke Johnson had a great shot at overtaking Isaiah Crowell. This year the division of labor seems clearer. On a team with more question marks than answers, the Crowell/Johnson tandem presents a pair of seemingly reliable fantasy options.
Ravens -- Kenneth Dixon's season-ending injury simplifies this backfield tremendously. Terrance West is primed to claim all the early-down work he can handle, while the aging Danny Woodhead need only stay healthy to contribute (missed 13 and 14 games in two of the past three years).
Steelers -- If Le'Veon Bell misses time this year, Pittsburgh would be wise to sign DeAngelo Williams or some other decently capable RB. Rookie James Conner won't be the answer. Neither will be Fitzgerald Toussaint. And Knile Davis hasn't been relevant in years. Bell is not an RB to handcuff in fantasy, as there are at least 25 more talented handcuffs out there.
AFC EAST
Bills -- LeSean McCoy is the clear-cut #1, while Jonathan Williams is the clear-cut #2. But Williams' hamstring injury last night needs to be monitored the rest of the month. It's possible Buffalo will keep him out of the remaining preseason games. Among Buffalo's three other rostered RBs, only one (Joe Banyard) has played an NFL snap, with only 23 carries in four seasons. If Williams can't shake his injury this year (a possibility whenever hamstrings are involved), my money will be on Buffalo signing a free agent to handcuff McCoy until Williams returns.
Dolphins -- I'm still not sold on Jay Ajayi, though I'm not ready to knock him out of my top 16 RBs. While Damien Williams is #2 on the depth chart, Kenyan Drake holds the most value relative to his draft position. Williams has never cracked 3.7 YPC in three NFL seasons, though he's useful in the passing game. Drake is a more complete back and should leap Williams at some point this season. That Ajayi recently missed a week with a concussion is a reminder of how quickly one of Miami's backups could become a huge waiver pickup later this year.
Jets -- Matt Forte missed a week with a hamstring injury. Bilal Powell missed time with a neck injury. Elijah McGuire is a likely low-ceiling plodder even if he's handed starter snaps--particularly in this questionable (generously speaking) offense. Outside of a solid TD total, Forte is coming off the worst season of his nine-year career and won't suddenly be reborn at age 31/32. Powell is the back to roster if you don't reach too high, though it's hard to imagine any Jet RB exceeding ADP expectations.
Patriots -- I shared thoughts about Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead yesterday, so no need to be redundant. There are more Patriot backfield variations than there are reasonably possible New England win-loss records. (13-3 or 14-2? Can't decide.) It's inconceivable that these two and James White and Dion Lewis will be fantasy relevant. It's almost as inconceivable that three of the four will play meaningful roles. Right now, Gillislee and White are the favorites, with White being the most likely Patriot back to contribute (i.e highest floor).
AFC NORTH
Bengals -- Is Joe Mixon starting? Or Jeremy Hill? Will Gio Bernard have a consistent role? A fascinating position battle is shaping up in Cincy. Those of you who recall just how dominant Hill can be (2014 feels like a long time ago) probably can understand why he's still on so many fantasy radars. But let's face it: this is all about Mixon. If the rookie proves to be a capable pass protector, he has more than sufficient RB skills to be the team's 16+ touch backfield leader. I'm still betting on Mixon to lead the RB corps--but only if he proves NFL ready with some of the fundamentals Coach Marvin Lewis is looking for.
Browns -- Last season I thought Duke Johnson had a great shot at overtaking Isaiah Crowell. This year the division of labor seems clearer. On a team with more question marks than answers, the Crowell/Johnson tandem presents a pair of seemingly reliable fantasy options.
Ravens -- Kenneth Dixon's season-ending injury simplifies this backfield tremendously. Terrance West is primed to claim all the early-down work he can handle, while the aging Danny Woodhead need only stay healthy to contribute (missed 13 and 14 games in two of the past three years).
Steelers -- If Le'Veon Bell misses time this year, Pittsburgh would be wise to sign DeAngelo Williams or some other decently capable RB. Rookie James Conner won't be the answer. Neither will be Fitzgerald Toussaint. And Knile Davis hasn't been relevant in years. Bell is not an RB to handcuff in fantasy, as there are at least 25 more talented handcuffs out there.