Yesterday brought us arguably the most impactful fantasy news since the NFL draft. Let's try to make sense of it.
After a year-long investigation by the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott was suspended for six games. As a father and husband--hell, as a human being--it's nearly impossible to write about these things from merely a fantasy perspective. But I have to try to keep personal editorializing to a minimum, focusing instead on objective reality, because otherwise this would be a very different page.
The fact is, the NFL has determined Elliott committed domestic abuse. Another fact is that Elliott disagrees with the findings and is expected to appeal. Assuming the suspension holds, as of today Darren McFadden would have RB2/3 fantasy value--assuming he starts. Alfred Morris, Rod Smith, and the newly signed Ronnie Hillman will vie for touches in Elliott's presumed absence. This is a muddier fantasy situation than first appears; while it's fairly safe to assume Elliott's appeal will fail, we don't know when that will happen--and by that point, the RB pecking order behind him could look much different. So I'd caution everyone to not overreach for McFadden. And we should all be mindful of the NFL's warning that Elliott could be suspended or even banished from the NFL if he violates the league's personal conduct policy in the future.
In other news, Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams. Formerly the oft-injured #1 receiver in Buffalo, Watkins will now serve as a potentially oft-injured #1 receiver in L.A. I view this move as a wash. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Jared Goff at QB, Watkins' upside will be capped below many other teams' #1s even if he does stay healthy. For the Rams, Robert Woods is the biggest loser, as he'll go from viable WR4+ to almost undraftable WR5/6. Meanwhile, Tavon Austin will drift further into fantasy irrelevance.
This was the Bills' only trade on the day. They also acquired Jordan Matthews to fill the gap left by moving Watkins. Matthews lacks Watkins' upside, but he's a highly competent receiver who's missed only two games in three seasons. 1,000 yards and seven scores are quite possible. Zay Jones and Anquan Boldin will be largely unaffected by these transactions--except that Matthews' durability doesn't help.
And Matthews' departure from Philadelphia makes Alshon Jeffery an even more clear-cut #1. I'm still not sold on him at his ADP, but I'll spend the new few days evaluating whether he should be bumped up a few spots. The more interesting byproduct is Nelson Agholor's likely move into the starting lineup, while Torrey Smith will get a little more breathing room as a 2-3 catch-per-game deep-ball specialist. Zach Ertz also might get a bump. But it's Agholor and his WR-102 ADP that need to be monitored. If he continues to show well this summer, I'll be inclined to move him inside the top 50.
After a year-long investigation by the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott was suspended for six games. As a father and husband--hell, as a human being--it's nearly impossible to write about these things from merely a fantasy perspective. But I have to try to keep personal editorializing to a minimum, focusing instead on objective reality, because otherwise this would be a very different page.
The fact is, the NFL has determined Elliott committed domestic abuse. Another fact is that Elliott disagrees with the findings and is expected to appeal. Assuming the suspension holds, as of today Darren McFadden would have RB2/3 fantasy value--assuming he starts. Alfred Morris, Rod Smith, and the newly signed Ronnie Hillman will vie for touches in Elliott's presumed absence. This is a muddier fantasy situation than first appears; while it's fairly safe to assume Elliott's appeal will fail, we don't know when that will happen--and by that point, the RB pecking order behind him could look much different. So I'd caution everyone to not overreach for McFadden. And we should all be mindful of the NFL's warning that Elliott could be suspended or even banished from the NFL if he violates the league's personal conduct policy in the future.
In other news, Sammy Watkins was traded to the Rams. Formerly the oft-injured #1 receiver in Buffalo, Watkins will now serve as a potentially oft-injured #1 receiver in L.A. I view this move as a wash. Whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Jared Goff at QB, Watkins' upside will be capped below many other teams' #1s even if he does stay healthy. For the Rams, Robert Woods is the biggest loser, as he'll go from viable WR4+ to almost undraftable WR5/6. Meanwhile, Tavon Austin will drift further into fantasy irrelevance.
This was the Bills' only trade on the day. They also acquired Jordan Matthews to fill the gap left by moving Watkins. Matthews lacks Watkins' upside, but he's a highly competent receiver who's missed only two games in three seasons. 1,000 yards and seven scores are quite possible. Zay Jones and Anquan Boldin will be largely unaffected by these transactions--except that Matthews' durability doesn't help.
And Matthews' departure from Philadelphia makes Alshon Jeffery an even more clear-cut #1. I'm still not sold on him at his ADP, but I'll spend the new few days evaluating whether he should be bumped up a few spots. The more interesting byproduct is Nelson Agholor's likely move into the starting lineup, while Torrey Smith will get a little more breathing room as a 2-3 catch-per-game deep-ball specialist. Zach Ertz also might get a bump. But it's Agholor and his WR-102 ADP that need to be monitored. If he continues to show well this summer, I'll be inclined to move him inside the top 50.