Yesterday's conversation on the merits (or stupidity) of drafting Aaron Rodgers early was one of the best I've seen on this page. Thanks to all of you who jumped in--and particular thanks to Joe Terlecki, one of the 200+ subscribers of my fantasy rankings, who challenged me the other day on why I ranked Rodgers so high. His appropriate push-back got me thinking it'd make an interesting point of discussion. All of you are encouraged to do the same: If you see something that doesn't look right, challenge me. Make me defend it. If I'm thinking about it all wrong, better to know now--and then share it with the FF4W community--than to find out midseason.
There's one more element to the Rodgers narrative that needs to get out there. After this, I'm not anticipating any more posts on Rodgers this season (unless he gets hurt).
I wrote yesterday that he's been a top-2 fantasy QB in seven of the past nine years (and if he hadn't missed seven games in 2013, it probably would have been 8-of-9). He's also averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game these past nine years: 2,875 points in 135 contests. His worst season during that stretch was nine years ago, when he averaged 18.1 points per game. His 21.3-point mark is nearly a point more than Drew Brees since Brees became elite (in 2008) and nearly two points better than Tom Brady since Brady became elite (2009).
Among sample next-tier and upper-middle-tier QBs, Rodgers has averaged nearly 3.5 points per game more than Matthew Stafford since Stafford hit his groove in 2011 and nearly five points better than Philip Rivers since Rivers took off in 2008. I could run down a dozen more players, but you get the idea.
FF4W reader Darren Hoffer made a very reasonable counterpoint yesterday--that grabbing two mid-to-low QB1s and streaming them can get you the same production as a full season of Rodgers. Sure, that's a doable strategy if it works. And if any of you can time that right and pull in 21-22 QB points per game, more power to you. Of course, this means you're wasting a bench spot on a QB you're using 50% of the time or less. That's a spot you could be using on an RB handcuff with RB1 upside, or a WR4 with WR2 upside if his WR1 teammate gets hurt. There are repercussions to using bench spots on little-used QBs who can't match Rodgers' consistency.
Rodgers' fantasy dominance--and the reason why he's #3 overall on my Standard draft board and #16 in PPR--is further reinforced when comparing him to flex players getting drafted a round or two ahead of him--guys like LeSean McCoy, who since 2010 has averaged three fewer PPR points per game and 6.5 fewer Standard points per game than Rodgers during the Packer QB's nine-year run. How about universal top-3 pick Le'Veon Bell? He's netting less than one-third more PPR points in his career than Rodgers is in nine years--as well as 4.5 fewer Standard points. And unlike Rodgers, Bell comes with serious playability risks, missing 17 games in four seasons.
To those who think it's ridiculous drafting Rodgers in the first or second round, I'm not here to convince you otherwise. But I am here to put perspective on statistics, because we win fantasy titles not because of names or positions, but because of statistics. And when Player A's nine-year body of work puts him on a different level than almost every other player (excepting phenoms with limited histories like David Johnson), we need to pay attention to the numbers. And react.
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75 of you have signed up for the Third Annual FF4W Survivor Pool. If you want in, click here:
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Yesterday Cards Coach Bruce Arians referred to Jaron Brown as the team's #2 wideout. The other and better-known Brown--teammate John--has been dealing with a quad injury as well as a sickle-cell issue that slows his healing. Even though Carson Palmer tends to spreads the ball around beyond Larry Fitzgerald, it's notable given that Jaron is going undrafted in about 99%+ of leagues, and it means John Brown's no longer a WR4/5.
There's one more element to the Rodgers narrative that needs to get out there. After this, I'm not anticipating any more posts on Rodgers this season (unless he gets hurt).
I wrote yesterday that he's been a top-2 fantasy QB in seven of the past nine years (and if he hadn't missed seven games in 2013, it probably would have been 8-of-9). He's also averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game these past nine years: 2,875 points in 135 contests. His worst season during that stretch was nine years ago, when he averaged 18.1 points per game. His 21.3-point mark is nearly a point more than Drew Brees since Brees became elite (in 2008) and nearly two points better than Tom Brady since Brady became elite (2009).
Among sample next-tier and upper-middle-tier QBs, Rodgers has averaged nearly 3.5 points per game more than Matthew Stafford since Stafford hit his groove in 2011 and nearly five points better than Philip Rivers since Rivers took off in 2008. I could run down a dozen more players, but you get the idea.
FF4W reader Darren Hoffer made a very reasonable counterpoint yesterday--that grabbing two mid-to-low QB1s and streaming them can get you the same production as a full season of Rodgers. Sure, that's a doable strategy if it works. And if any of you can time that right and pull in 21-22 QB points per game, more power to you. Of course, this means you're wasting a bench spot on a QB you're using 50% of the time or less. That's a spot you could be using on an RB handcuff with RB1 upside, or a WR4 with WR2 upside if his WR1 teammate gets hurt. There are repercussions to using bench spots on little-used QBs who can't match Rodgers' consistency.
Rodgers' fantasy dominance--and the reason why he's #3 overall on my Standard draft board and #16 in PPR--is further reinforced when comparing him to flex players getting drafted a round or two ahead of him--guys like LeSean McCoy, who since 2010 has averaged three fewer PPR points per game and 6.5 fewer Standard points per game than Rodgers during the Packer QB's nine-year run. How about universal top-3 pick Le'Veon Bell? He's netting less than one-third more PPR points in his career than Rodgers is in nine years--as well as 4.5 fewer Standard points. And unlike Rodgers, Bell comes with serious playability risks, missing 17 games in four seasons.
To those who think it's ridiculous drafting Rodgers in the first or second round, I'm not here to convince you otherwise. But I am here to put perspective on statistics, because we win fantasy titles not because of names or positions, but because of statistics. And when Player A's nine-year body of work puts him on a different level than almost every other player (excepting phenoms with limited histories like David Johnson), we need to pay attention to the numbers. And react.
---
75 of you have signed up for the Third Annual FF4W Survivor Pool. If you want in, click here:
https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/register/joinprivategroup?gid=2654&password=charlesclay.
Group ID: 2654
Password: charlesclay
---
Yesterday Cards Coach Bruce Arians referred to Jaron Brown as the team's #2 wideout. The other and better-known Brown--teammate John--has been dealing with a quad injury as well as a sickle-cell issue that slows his healing. Even though Carson Palmer tends to spreads the ball around beyond Larry Fitzgerald, it's notable given that Jaron is going undrafted in about 99%+ of leagues, and it means John Brown's no longer a WR4/5.