Contrarian Prediction #9: Marshawn Lynch (RB-12 ADP Standard / RB-13 ADP PPR) Will Not Be a Top 20/26 RB
Those who believe Marshawn Lynch can come off a nearly two-year hiatus and recapture the magic of his 20's are doomed to disappointment.
Last season, while Lynch was "retired," DeAndre Washington (5.4 YPC on 87 carries) and Jalen Richard (5.9 YPC on 83 carries) formed the best RB handcuff tandem in the NFL. I don't envision the Raiders keeping these two off the field. We should expect Lynch to be spelled early and often. Rather than be the 280-300 carry workhorse we once knew, he'll be lucky to crack 225--and that assumes his 31-year-old frame doesn't break down along the way.
Among the top 35 RBs in terms of career rushing attempts, only Earl Campbell played fewer seasons (eight) than Lynch. In other words, "Beast Mode" has been asked to do more than most RBs on a per-season basis since his rookie year, and there's no way he'll be asked to do more yet again.
Lynch will have one of two seasons in 2017: an adequate top 24-30 RB output on reasonable production stemming from 10-14 touches per game, or an injury-shortened and highly forgettable season that unceremoniously re-ends his career.
Given what he's meant to football all these years, I'm hoping I'm wrong. But with nearly every fantasy expert placing him in the top 26 in PPR and top 20 in Standard, I'm side-stepping the future Hall-of-Famer and advising others to add Washington or Richard toward the end of their draft.
Last season, while Lynch was "retired," DeAndre Washington (5.4 YPC on 87 carries) and Jalen Richard (5.9 YPC on 83 carries) formed the best RB handcuff tandem in the NFL. I don't envision the Raiders keeping these two off the field. We should expect Lynch to be spelled early and often. Rather than be the 280-300 carry workhorse we once knew, he'll be lucky to crack 225--and that assumes his 31-year-old frame doesn't break down along the way.
Among the top 35 RBs in terms of career rushing attempts, only Earl Campbell played fewer seasons (eight) than Lynch. In other words, "Beast Mode" has been asked to do more than most RBs on a per-season basis since his rookie year, and there's no way he'll be asked to do more yet again.
Lynch will have one of two seasons in 2017: an adequate top 24-30 RB output on reasonable production stemming from 10-14 touches per game, or an injury-shortened and highly forgettable season that unceremoniously re-ends his career.
Given what he's meant to football all these years, I'm hoping I'm wrong. But with nearly every fantasy expert placing him in the top 26 in PPR and top 20 in Standard, I'm side-stepping the future Hall-of-Famer and advising others to add Washington or Richard toward the end of their draft.