Contrarian Prediction #15: Ty Montgomery (RB-20 ADP Standard / RB-19 ADP PPR) Will Not Be a Top 28 RB
I've been waiting a few weeks for national ADP and expert rankings to catch up with my thinking on Ty Montgomery. The last thing I want to do is rush into a prediction--not because of doubts, but because of the perception that I'm seizing on current news before others have time to update their thinking.
But we're now entering the final week of August, and Montgomery remains one of fantasy's most overrated draftable RBs. Nearly every expert continues to ignore what appears increasingly obvious: Montgomery won't be a bell-cow, and he might not even lead Green Bay's backfield.
Among the roughly 100 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts, 96% place him inside the top 28 in Standard and in PPR. Average draft position in online leagues averages RB-20 in Standard and RB-19 in PPR. Conceivably, this is all about Montgomery's 2016 breakout, when he racked up over 800 total yards on only 121 touches, including an incredible 5.9 YPC. With 200-250 touches, surely he can be an RB2, right? Surely. If he gets that much run. But that's unlikely.
Montgomery ran the ball 39 times in college. He's not a converted running back; he's a wideout who's talented enough to be a situational running back. Yet he's buried on the WR depth chart in a crowded receiver corps. So he'll pick up where he left off last year, earning around 8-10 rushing attempts per game and catching 2-3 passes. That's RB3 volume, not RB2. Fantasy prognosticators and competitors are putting a lot of faith in someone with a minimal RB track record--someone who earned double-digit carries only once last year.
And if you think the Packers are entirely sold on Montgomery, consider that they added four rookie running backs this year--three through the draft. Jamaal Williams has shown particularly well in camp and has a chance to carve out a meaningful role as early as Week 1. Meanwhile, we probably haven't heard the last of Devante Mays and Aaron Jones.
Montgomery simply will not be a top 28 RB this year in Standard or PPR leagues. He's a highly talented, versatile football player on one of the league's two or three best offenses. He'll have his moments. But they won't be nearly enough to rationalize his fourth-round draft investment.
But we're now entering the final week of August, and Montgomery remains one of fantasy's most overrated draftable RBs. Nearly every expert continues to ignore what appears increasingly obvious: Montgomery won't be a bell-cow, and he might not even lead Green Bay's backfield.
Among the roughly 100 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts, 96% place him inside the top 28 in Standard and in PPR. Average draft position in online leagues averages RB-20 in Standard and RB-19 in PPR. Conceivably, this is all about Montgomery's 2016 breakout, when he racked up over 800 total yards on only 121 touches, including an incredible 5.9 YPC. With 200-250 touches, surely he can be an RB2, right? Surely. If he gets that much run. But that's unlikely.
Montgomery ran the ball 39 times in college. He's not a converted running back; he's a wideout who's talented enough to be a situational running back. Yet he's buried on the WR depth chart in a crowded receiver corps. So he'll pick up where he left off last year, earning around 8-10 rushing attempts per game and catching 2-3 passes. That's RB3 volume, not RB2. Fantasy prognosticators and competitors are putting a lot of faith in someone with a minimal RB track record--someone who earned double-digit carries only once last year.
And if you think the Packers are entirely sold on Montgomery, consider that they added four rookie running backs this year--three through the draft. Jamaal Williams has shown particularly well in camp and has a chance to carve out a meaningful role as early as Week 1. Meanwhile, we probably haven't heard the last of Devante Mays and Aaron Jones.
Montgomery simply will not be a top 28 RB this year in Standard or PPR leagues. He's a highly talented, versatile football player on one of the league's two or three best offenses. He'll have his moments. But they won't be nearly enough to rationalize his fourth-round draft investment.