Contrarian Prediction #13: LeGarrette Blount (WR-26 ADP Standard / WR-33 ADP PPR) Will Not Be a Top 38/44 RB
I've been down on LeGarrette Blount since he signed with Philly this offseason. Here's what I wrote in my Eagles fantasy rundown two months ago today:
"Newly acquired LeGarrette Blount is coming off an 18-TD season that seemed to defy logic. His 2017 season will be far worse. Here are the warning signs: He’s coming off a 299-carry regular season (98 more than his previous career high in 2010), won’t come close to earning that many touches this year, is 30 years old, ran under 4 YPC (continuing a decline that started three seasons ago), and is playing in an offense that can’t hold a candle to New England’s. In other words, we should expect fewer touches, fewer scoring opportunities, and relative inefficiency compared to most starting RBs. Someone in your league will reach for him. Laugh quietly."
But I've been wary of listing him as a "contrarian prediction," since it seemed most people have been down on him, too. That changed when I did more research on the Eagles' backfield while preparing my recent NFC East RB column. Blount won't be a traditional "starter" in Philly. And he might not even earn a plurality of backfield touches my midseason. Blount's missed a lot of practices with his new team and has looked sluggish in game action. This has the makings of a four-headed competition, with Wendell Smallwood battling Blount on the ground while Darren Sproles and Donnel Pumphrey earn looks in the air.
While he might appear to be a 6th or 7th round steal, Blount's actually a wasted top 100 pick. Whatever goal-line carries he might earn, I make it a point not to lean on inefficient, aging, TD-dependent RBs. This puts me outside the expert world, where 94% of 78 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts place Blount inside the top 44 in PPR with most ranking him as an RB2 or RB3. Meanwhile, 97% of 109 experts list him inside the top 38 in Standard, with nearly a majority predicting RB2 numbers.
Don't throw away a mid-round pick on a guy with such low upside. Wait 5-10 rounds, pick up Wendell Smallwood or Donnel Pumphrey, and use that mid-rounder instead on a guy you'll likely be starting in the fantasy playoffs.
"Newly acquired LeGarrette Blount is coming off an 18-TD season that seemed to defy logic. His 2017 season will be far worse. Here are the warning signs: He’s coming off a 299-carry regular season (98 more than his previous career high in 2010), won’t come close to earning that many touches this year, is 30 years old, ran under 4 YPC (continuing a decline that started three seasons ago), and is playing in an offense that can’t hold a candle to New England’s. In other words, we should expect fewer touches, fewer scoring opportunities, and relative inefficiency compared to most starting RBs. Someone in your league will reach for him. Laugh quietly."
But I've been wary of listing him as a "contrarian prediction," since it seemed most people have been down on him, too. That changed when I did more research on the Eagles' backfield while preparing my recent NFC East RB column. Blount won't be a traditional "starter" in Philly. And he might not even earn a plurality of backfield touches my midseason. Blount's missed a lot of practices with his new team and has looked sluggish in game action. This has the makings of a four-headed competition, with Wendell Smallwood battling Blount on the ground while Darren Sproles and Donnel Pumphrey earn looks in the air.
While he might appear to be a 6th or 7th round steal, Blount's actually a wasted top 100 pick. Whatever goal-line carries he might earn, I make it a point not to lean on inefficient, aging, TD-dependent RBs. This puts me outside the expert world, where 94% of 78 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts place Blount inside the top 44 in PPR with most ranking him as an RB2 or RB3. Meanwhile, 97% of 109 experts list him inside the top 38 in Standard, with nearly a majority predicting RB2 numbers.
Don't throw away a mid-round pick on a guy with such low upside. Wait 5-10 rounds, pick up Wendell Smallwood or Donnel Pumphrey, and use that mid-rounder instead on a guy you'll likely be starting in the fantasy playoffs.