Yesterday I walked through some simple research, and how it can help center our thinking during draft day. While not anywhere close to being an end-all/be-all resource, the top 10/25/50/100 breakdowns create a loose framework through which we can make smarter draft decisions.
So how does it come into play in a real draft? To find out, I conducted a mock 12-team PPR draft through ESPN's site. While I'll only go through the first few rounds (don't want to bore everyone with every single decision; you already got plenty of that last week with my 2,500-word mini-novel). Randomly assigned to pick 10th, I first review my top 300 PPR rankings. Ezekiel Elliott is at #10, sandwiched between high-volume receivers Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green. Looking ahead to the early 2nd round, I'm casually eyeballing Aaron Rodgers or a near-elite RB/WR if one's available. The key here is not to get ahead of myself. When it's my turn, Zeke and Jordy are gone, leaving me with Green--the best available player from my spreadsheet. Consulting yesterday's research, elite WRs represent fantasy's top 10 scorers far more than RBs do, which solidifies my decision to draft Green.
Before my next pick, my two top RB targets--Melvin Gordon and Devonta Freeman--are taken. I could take Rodgers, but my view of Dez Bryant as a vastly underrated top 6 WR is too much to ignore. He's higher than Rodgers on my draft board, and let's face it: I need to trust my draft board. Dozens of Hours spent on it shouldn't be undone by 30 seconds of second-guessing. And per yesterday's research, WRs are more than twice as likely to be a top 11-25 scorer than RBs are. As stated yesterday, while this is a simplistic breakdown, it's also compelling; if 2012-2016 trends continue in 2017, around nine WRs will be top 25 fantasy scorers vs. only about five RBs.
With the 34th overall pick, I reach a bit by selecting Travis Kelce. Gronk went in the previous round, and recent history shows an average of three TEs finish the year among the top 26-50 scorers. Kelce was only the 50th highest scorer last year, but aside from Greg Olsen and a healthy Jordan Reed (little guarantee), Alex Smith's favorite target is the most positionally elite player remaining. Coming back down in the fourth round, I've got an array of solid-but-not-spectacular WRs to choose from. Here's where yesterday's research takes a backseat: I'm still hoping to land a couple of RBs with top 15 upside. Adding a third WR here--while likely to be a top 50 scorer--won't be a significant upgrade over some of the RBs I can grab a round or two later. So I take my highest-ranked RB available: Isaiah Crowell.
I next grab Joe Mixon, giving me two solid RBs and freeing me to take some chances on handcuffs later in the draft. And soon after that, with my sixth pick, I select the best QB available (per my spreadsheet): Matt Ryan. Wrapping up this post, my next two picks are two wideouts with top 25 potential: Willie Snead and Cameron Meredith.
So to summarize, I'm using my rankings throughout the draft. And I'm also mindful of WRs' propensity to more consistently outshine comparably valued RBs in PPR. My first eight picks leave me with Ryan at QB; Crowell and Mixon at RB; Green, Dez, Snead, and Meredith at WR; and Kelce at TE. While anything could happen this year, in this mock draft I've locked in eight guys with top 50 overall scoring potential. In a 12-team league, that would set me up well to begin the season.
So how does it come into play in a real draft? To find out, I conducted a mock 12-team PPR draft through ESPN's site. While I'll only go through the first few rounds (don't want to bore everyone with every single decision; you already got plenty of that last week with my 2,500-word mini-novel). Randomly assigned to pick 10th, I first review my top 300 PPR rankings. Ezekiel Elliott is at #10, sandwiched between high-volume receivers Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green. Looking ahead to the early 2nd round, I'm casually eyeballing Aaron Rodgers or a near-elite RB/WR if one's available. The key here is not to get ahead of myself. When it's my turn, Zeke and Jordy are gone, leaving me with Green--the best available player from my spreadsheet. Consulting yesterday's research, elite WRs represent fantasy's top 10 scorers far more than RBs do, which solidifies my decision to draft Green.
Before my next pick, my two top RB targets--Melvin Gordon and Devonta Freeman--are taken. I could take Rodgers, but my view of Dez Bryant as a vastly underrated top 6 WR is too much to ignore. He's higher than Rodgers on my draft board, and let's face it: I need to trust my draft board. Dozens of Hours spent on it shouldn't be undone by 30 seconds of second-guessing. And per yesterday's research, WRs are more than twice as likely to be a top 11-25 scorer than RBs are. As stated yesterday, while this is a simplistic breakdown, it's also compelling; if 2012-2016 trends continue in 2017, around nine WRs will be top 25 fantasy scorers vs. only about five RBs.
With the 34th overall pick, I reach a bit by selecting Travis Kelce. Gronk went in the previous round, and recent history shows an average of three TEs finish the year among the top 26-50 scorers. Kelce was only the 50th highest scorer last year, but aside from Greg Olsen and a healthy Jordan Reed (little guarantee), Alex Smith's favorite target is the most positionally elite player remaining. Coming back down in the fourth round, I've got an array of solid-but-not-spectacular WRs to choose from. Here's where yesterday's research takes a backseat: I'm still hoping to land a couple of RBs with top 15 upside. Adding a third WR here--while likely to be a top 50 scorer--won't be a significant upgrade over some of the RBs I can grab a round or two later. So I take my highest-ranked RB available: Isaiah Crowell.
I next grab Joe Mixon, giving me two solid RBs and freeing me to take some chances on handcuffs later in the draft. And soon after that, with my sixth pick, I select the best QB available (per my spreadsheet): Matt Ryan. Wrapping up this post, my next two picks are two wideouts with top 25 potential: Willie Snead and Cameron Meredith.
So to summarize, I'm using my rankings throughout the draft. And I'm also mindful of WRs' propensity to more consistently outshine comparably valued RBs in PPR. My first eight picks leave me with Ryan at QB; Crowell and Mixon at RB; Green, Dez, Snead, and Meredith at WR; and Kelce at TE. While anything could happen this year, in this mock draft I've locked in eight guys with top 50 overall scoring potential. In a 12-team league, that would set me up well to begin the season.