Anquan Boldin's departure from Buffalo – and possible retirement – yesterday won't derail anyone's fantasy title aspirations. But losing a veteran red-zone target with great hands gives rookie Zay Jones yet another pump. More than a month ago I started ranking Jones as a top 50 WR when his ADP was roughly 60 and hyped him and Kenny Golladay as part of my late-round WR draft strategy. Jones will continue to rise in my rankings this week, and is now a borderline must-own receiver in nearly every league.
Getting back into the RB discussion, here are my latest thoughts on the NFC North backfields. Later this week I'll wrap up this division-by-division rundown with the NFC South and West.
NFC NORTH
Bears -- The only thing that can stop Jordan Howard this season is an injury. He was last year's 10th highest scoring fantasy RB in PPR and 9th highest in Standard . . . despite not playing Week 1 and not starting until Week 4. Oh, and his team had only three wins and was continually playing from behind. He defied the odds with a blistering 5.2 YPC and over 1,600 total yards. Former starter Jeremy Langford might not make the team this summer. Barely-ready-for-primetime fourth-year back Ka'Deem Carey won't see more than one or two touches a game. Benny Cunningham's value is capped as a situational passing-down contributor. Rookie Tarik Cohen is the one name to watch--a guy who could be talented enough to leapfrog Cunningham and own a 4-8 touch-per-game role. But overall, despite once again playing on a suspect offense, Howard is one of the safest RBs out there outside the big three (or big two depending on whether Ezekiel Elliot's suspension pushes into the fantasy playoffs).
Lions -- After being on the Ameer Abdullah bandwagon his first two seasons, I'm tepidly remaining on it. This should once again be a solid offense, and a healthy Abdullah should earn 200-225 touches. He ran brilliantly last year before getting knocked out for the season and has the skills to be an RB1 someday. But Theo Riddick--one of the league's top pass-catching backs--combined with four solid-to-terrific receivers make Abdullah a low-upside RB2. Riddick is the Detroit RB to draft in PPR. He was last year's 25th highest scoring PPR RB despite playing only 10 games. Over a full season, his projected numbers would have placed him 7th at his position. Granted, Abdullah's loss was Riddick's gain, as he assumed a greater role. But the year before he was 18th in PPR and is a steal at his RB-30 PPR ADP. Meanwhile, Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington will battle for the right to at least partially handcuff Abdullah; neither are draftable in about 90% of leagues.
Packers -- I still don't understand the Ty Montgomery phenomenon--or at least how high people are drafting him. Yes, he remains the favorite to earn the most touches in Green Bay's backfield. But this is a guy who's earned double-digit carries only once in his career. Was he incredible last year on 121 touches? Yes. Will he reach 200 this year? Nope. Three rookies will compete for a timeshare, and thus far Jamaal Williams has the inside track to cut into Montgomery's usage. Devante Mays and Aaron Jones are also names to keep on radars. For now, we're looking at an underrated "starter" and underrated "everyone else."
Vikings -- Minnesota might be regretting signing Latavius Murray this offseason to a $15 million contract. Then again, only a fraction is guaranteed. Rookie Dalvin Cook has all the makings of becoming one of those increasingly rare bell-cows, capable of earning 250-350 looks and making those drafting him in the 4th/5th round (his average ADP is 43 Standard / 46 PPR) look like geniuses. Cook is a 2nd-round-caliber running back whose only serious obstacle is Murray. Expect Cook to earn at least 75% of the backfield touches out of the gate, converting Murray into a glorified handcuff and relegating Jerick McKinnon to NFL (not fantasy) bench fodder.
Getting back into the RB discussion, here are my latest thoughts on the NFC North backfields. Later this week I'll wrap up this division-by-division rundown with the NFC South and West.
NFC NORTH
Bears -- The only thing that can stop Jordan Howard this season is an injury. He was last year's 10th highest scoring fantasy RB in PPR and 9th highest in Standard . . . despite not playing Week 1 and not starting until Week 4. Oh, and his team had only three wins and was continually playing from behind. He defied the odds with a blistering 5.2 YPC and over 1,600 total yards. Former starter Jeremy Langford might not make the team this summer. Barely-ready-for-primetime fourth-year back Ka'Deem Carey won't see more than one or two touches a game. Benny Cunningham's value is capped as a situational passing-down contributor. Rookie Tarik Cohen is the one name to watch--a guy who could be talented enough to leapfrog Cunningham and own a 4-8 touch-per-game role. But overall, despite once again playing on a suspect offense, Howard is one of the safest RBs out there outside the big three (or big two depending on whether Ezekiel Elliot's suspension pushes into the fantasy playoffs).
Lions -- After being on the Ameer Abdullah bandwagon his first two seasons, I'm tepidly remaining on it. This should once again be a solid offense, and a healthy Abdullah should earn 200-225 touches. He ran brilliantly last year before getting knocked out for the season and has the skills to be an RB1 someday. But Theo Riddick--one of the league's top pass-catching backs--combined with four solid-to-terrific receivers make Abdullah a low-upside RB2. Riddick is the Detroit RB to draft in PPR. He was last year's 25th highest scoring PPR RB despite playing only 10 games. Over a full season, his projected numbers would have placed him 7th at his position. Granted, Abdullah's loss was Riddick's gain, as he assumed a greater role. But the year before he was 18th in PPR and is a steal at his RB-30 PPR ADP. Meanwhile, Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington will battle for the right to at least partially handcuff Abdullah; neither are draftable in about 90% of leagues.
Packers -- I still don't understand the Ty Montgomery phenomenon--or at least how high people are drafting him. Yes, he remains the favorite to earn the most touches in Green Bay's backfield. But this is a guy who's earned double-digit carries only once in his career. Was he incredible last year on 121 touches? Yes. Will he reach 200 this year? Nope. Three rookies will compete for a timeshare, and thus far Jamaal Williams has the inside track to cut into Montgomery's usage. Devante Mays and Aaron Jones are also names to keep on radars. For now, we're looking at an underrated "starter" and underrated "everyone else."
Vikings -- Minnesota might be regretting signing Latavius Murray this offseason to a $15 million contract. Then again, only a fraction is guaranteed. Rookie Dalvin Cook has all the makings of becoming one of those increasingly rare bell-cows, capable of earning 250-350 looks and making those drafting him in the 4th/5th round (his average ADP is 43 Standard / 46 PPR) look like geniuses. Cook is a 2nd-round-caliber running back whose only serious obstacle is Murray. Expect Cook to earn at least 75% of the backfield touches out of the gate, converting Murray into a glorified handcuff and relegating Jerick McKinnon to NFL (not fantasy) bench fodder.