These past 32 days I've offered some quick-hitting perspectives on nearly all of each team's draftable players. But I owe everyone an apology about my over-exuberance with QBs.
If you've seen Mel Brooks' "The Producers," this should look somewhat familiar: my write-ups offered a lot more than what can possibly come to fruition. Among the 32 teams, I named 17 QBs as automatic top-14 fantasy QBs, with four more offering top-14 upside. That's 21 QBs with good or great top 14 potential. So why did this happen>
This is a unique year for QBs in my opinion. The seven highest ranked guys according to ADP (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan, Luck, Wilson, Cam) are at least 28 years old; all are proven and talented veterans who, barring injury, should finish comfortably inside the top 14. Four of the next six (Carr, Prescott, Winston, Mariota) are early-to-mid-20s rising stars whose ceilings aren't yet fully understood. The other two of those six (Big Ben, Cousins) are mostly reliable QB1s when healthy. QBs 14-16 (Stafford, Eli, Rivers) have experience, high floors, and a plethora of weapons. Later we find Dalton (#19), Palmer (#21), Bortles (#22), and Tannehill (#23), each of whom has enjoyed QB1 seasons, and all of whom are realistic rebound candidates.
If your league rules favor elite QBs--for example, if you get bonuses for 300-yard passing games or 50-yard TD passes--then it might make sense to lock in a universally considered elite QB like Rodgers or Brady or Brees in an early round. Otherwise, you have a very good chance of claiming a top 10 QB in round 12, freeing you to load up on an extra impact RB or WR earlier in the draft. Or as we see every season, you should be able to find an impending QB1 off waivers. It happens every season, except this year there are a lot more contenders.
In best-ball drafts (where there are no benches or starting lineups, and your best positional performers each week count toward your total), this is a year to load up on three top 10-25 ADP QBs in the middle rounds, like Bortles (QB-22 ADP), Tannehill (QB-23 ADP), and Flacco (QB-25 ADP). In two-QB leagues, I suggest hoarding four or even five similar back-end QBs, with the likelihood that one or two will return top 14 value.
Embrace the plethora of QB talent out there. Some years it's best to reach for an elite one. This is a year to let one or more fall into your lap.
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Some weekend news worth highlighting:
(1) ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Ezekiel Elliott is preparing for the strong possibility of receiving a "short suspension" as a result of the NFL's year-long investigation into domestic violence accusations. Nothing has been confirmed, so this remains speculation--though it's coming from a highly respectable source. Darren McFadden gets a slight bump as Elliott's likely handcuff, while I'm not yet prepared to drop Elliott below #4 on my draft board.
(2) D'Onta Foreman was charged with pot and weapon possession. Lamar Miller's likely RB handcuff, Foreman also showed up to training camp out of shape. His attorney claims his client is innocent (of the possession--I think he'd agree Foreman needed to lose a few pounds). Obviously, this is a non-issue if he's innocent. Otherwise, either Alfred Blue, Tyler Ervin, or Akeem Hunt could leapfrog Foreman--at least to open the season.
If you've seen Mel Brooks' "The Producers," this should look somewhat familiar: my write-ups offered a lot more than what can possibly come to fruition. Among the 32 teams, I named 17 QBs as automatic top-14 fantasy QBs, with four more offering top-14 upside. That's 21 QBs with good or great top 14 potential. So why did this happen>
This is a unique year for QBs in my opinion. The seven highest ranked guys according to ADP (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan, Luck, Wilson, Cam) are at least 28 years old; all are proven and talented veterans who, barring injury, should finish comfortably inside the top 14. Four of the next six (Carr, Prescott, Winston, Mariota) are early-to-mid-20s rising stars whose ceilings aren't yet fully understood. The other two of those six (Big Ben, Cousins) are mostly reliable QB1s when healthy. QBs 14-16 (Stafford, Eli, Rivers) have experience, high floors, and a plethora of weapons. Later we find Dalton (#19), Palmer (#21), Bortles (#22), and Tannehill (#23), each of whom has enjoyed QB1 seasons, and all of whom are realistic rebound candidates.
If your league rules favor elite QBs--for example, if you get bonuses for 300-yard passing games or 50-yard TD passes--then it might make sense to lock in a universally considered elite QB like Rodgers or Brady or Brees in an early round. Otherwise, you have a very good chance of claiming a top 10 QB in round 12, freeing you to load up on an extra impact RB or WR earlier in the draft. Or as we see every season, you should be able to find an impending QB1 off waivers. It happens every season, except this year there are a lot more contenders.
In best-ball drafts (where there are no benches or starting lineups, and your best positional performers each week count toward your total), this is a year to load up on three top 10-25 ADP QBs in the middle rounds, like Bortles (QB-22 ADP), Tannehill (QB-23 ADP), and Flacco (QB-25 ADP). In two-QB leagues, I suggest hoarding four or even five similar back-end QBs, with the likelihood that one or two will return top 14 value.
Embrace the plethora of QB talent out there. Some years it's best to reach for an elite one. This is a year to let one or more fall into your lap.
---
Some weekend news worth highlighting:
(1) ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Ezekiel Elliott is preparing for the strong possibility of receiving a "short suspension" as a result of the NFL's year-long investigation into domestic violence accusations. Nothing has been confirmed, so this remains speculation--though it's coming from a highly respectable source. Darren McFadden gets a slight bump as Elliott's likely handcuff, while I'm not yet prepared to drop Elliott below #4 on my draft board.
(2) D'Onta Foreman was charged with pot and weapon possession. Lamar Miller's likely RB handcuff, Foreman also showed up to training camp out of shape. His attorney claims his client is innocent (of the possession--I think he'd agree Foreman needed to lose a few pounds). Obviously, this is a non-issue if he's innocent. Otherwise, either Alfred Blue, Tyler Ervin, or Akeem Hunt could leapfrog Foreman--at least to open the season.