Four of ESPN's top 10 preseason fantasy RBs last summer didn't produce top 10 RB numbers, with three finishing 20th or worse. Six of the RBs ranked 11-20 didn't finish in the top 20.
That's no knock on ESPN. The RB position is the trickiest to predict in fantasy. And that's why drafting RBs requires more thought than any other position. Among the highest-scoring Week 1 RBs last season, only one (David Johnson) ended the year among the top 14 RB scorers. Think about that for a moment. There's a reason the average NFL running back earns less per season than most or all other position players (including, believe it or not, kickers). According to NFL.com, RBs are consistently at or near the bottom when it comes to average career length. This translates in the fantasy world, where every year, whether due to injury or demotion, a sizable number of RBs starting Week 1 are no longer starting by the fantasy playoffs.
RB dependability drops even further when drafting part of an RB committee. Take this season, when C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles are competing for lead-RB status. One of three scenarios are most likely: Anderson will win the job and earn 275+ touches, Charles will win the job and earn 250+ touches, or they'll enjoy some kind of 200-175 split, meaning Anderson (RB-24 ADP) likely will have been overvalued on draft day, while Charles (RB-42 ADP) probably would have been undervalued. The Seattle situation is similar, where Eddie Lacy (RB-25 ADP) is coming off the board several rounds before Thomas Rawls (RB-49 ADP), despite the realistic chance that Lacy will either lose out to his teammate or split time--each scenario rendering him overrated.
11 of 32 teams are facing serious RB battles. Several other teams have RBs who are risky bets to stay healthy and/or keep their job. Rather than roll the dice on a less-than 50-50 chance of success, draft other positional players and bide your time for lower-valued members of RB committees or, better yet, wait even longer to snag a handful of handcuffs. Historically, about 25%-35% of Week 1 handcuffs start multiple games at some point during the season. Pocketing three or four (if your bench is big enough) gives you a high probability of an RB1 or RB2 at some point, with a decent probability of two or more eventually filling that role.
In deep leagues, think Kenyan Drake (RB-70 ADP), Darren McFadden (RB-71), or James Conner (RB-76). In shallower leagues, consider Marlon Mack (RB-54), Jonathan Williams (RB-57), or Joe Williams (RB-59). Will all six of these guys ride the pine all year? Not likely.
Find draft value where few are looking. It's easy to take a guy almost guaranteed to give you RB3/4/5 value. It's much harder--and far more rewarding--at the end of your draft to snag an RB7 with RB1/2 upside.
That's no knock on ESPN. The RB position is the trickiest to predict in fantasy. And that's why drafting RBs requires more thought than any other position. Among the highest-scoring Week 1 RBs last season, only one (David Johnson) ended the year among the top 14 RB scorers. Think about that for a moment. There's a reason the average NFL running back earns less per season than most or all other position players (including, believe it or not, kickers). According to NFL.com, RBs are consistently at or near the bottom when it comes to average career length. This translates in the fantasy world, where every year, whether due to injury or demotion, a sizable number of RBs starting Week 1 are no longer starting by the fantasy playoffs.
RB dependability drops even further when drafting part of an RB committee. Take this season, when C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles are competing for lead-RB status. One of three scenarios are most likely: Anderson will win the job and earn 275+ touches, Charles will win the job and earn 250+ touches, or they'll enjoy some kind of 200-175 split, meaning Anderson (RB-24 ADP) likely will have been overvalued on draft day, while Charles (RB-42 ADP) probably would have been undervalued. The Seattle situation is similar, where Eddie Lacy (RB-25 ADP) is coming off the board several rounds before Thomas Rawls (RB-49 ADP), despite the realistic chance that Lacy will either lose out to his teammate or split time--each scenario rendering him overrated.
11 of 32 teams are facing serious RB battles. Several other teams have RBs who are risky bets to stay healthy and/or keep their job. Rather than roll the dice on a less-than 50-50 chance of success, draft other positional players and bide your time for lower-valued members of RB committees or, better yet, wait even longer to snag a handful of handcuffs. Historically, about 25%-35% of Week 1 handcuffs start multiple games at some point during the season. Pocketing three or four (if your bench is big enough) gives you a high probability of an RB1 or RB2 at some point, with a decent probability of two or more eventually filling that role.
In deep leagues, think Kenyan Drake (RB-70 ADP), Darren McFadden (RB-71), or James Conner (RB-76). In shallower leagues, consider Marlon Mack (RB-54), Jonathan Williams (RB-57), or Joe Williams (RB-59). Will all six of these guys ride the pine all year? Not likely.
Find draft value where few are looking. It's easy to take a guy almost guaranteed to give you RB3/4/5 value. It's much harder--and far more rewarding--at the end of your draft to snag an RB7 with RB1/2 upside.