Contrarian Prediction #7: DeMarco Murray (RB-7 ADP Standard / RB-10 ADP PPR) Will Not Be a Top 15 RB
In making predictions yesterday and today about Tennessee's backfield, either I'll be doubly right or doubly wrong.
Yesterday I focused on Derrick Henry's undervalued position. Today I'll say a few words about DeMarco Murray.
Most of the fantasy universe is, to no one's surprise, bullish about Murray. Only three out of 57 experts rank him outside the top 11 in PPR, while none of the 94 Standard prognosticators place him worse than 13th (with 89 ranking him inside the top 10). At his best, Murray is an elite RB--one of the safest late-first-round / early-second-rounders out there. But he carries several yellow flags into the 2017 season, all of which lead to significant doubt that he can meet expectations.
First, Henry isn't going anywhere. Murray ran slightly worse than his backfield counterpart last year (4.4 YPC vs. 4.5 YPC) and lost out on many goal-line carries. It's inconceivable that Henry will cede even more touches to Murray in 2017. In other words, Murray's huge bounce-back 2016 season is his ceiling--and it's a ceiling that's dropping as Henry's acclimation to the league improves.
Second, Murray is coming off a 346-touch season. By Week 1, he'll be closer to 30 years old than 29. In other words, this idea that Murray will continue to be a workhorse is shortsighted. Tennessee is eyeing not only a playoff berth, but a reasonable chance at an AFC title game. As I wrote late last season, this is a team that no one will want to play in a one-and-done scenario. Except this year, Marcus Mariota is more experienced, Henry's more experienced, the defense has improved, and the receiving game has improved. There's no incentive for Tennessee to run Murray into the ground when Henry has proven to be a capable tandem player.
Tangential to this point, for his career Murray averages 4.84 YPC in September and October and 4.36 YPC November-January. Last year he achieved a 5.98 YPC in September and owned a 4.13 YPC thereafter. This is a guy who's at his worst later in the season. Some of this could be due to playing hurt. And granted, some guys play better later in the season and others don't; Murray's case is not unusual. But it's been a consistent issue, and we shouldn't expect it to reverse itself in his seventh NFL campaign.
I get it: it's hard to pass on a guy like Murray if he falls in your lap. But who gets to decide that he's a top 10 RB? And why? We challenge assumptions when the assumptions are based on flawed logic. I have yet to read any analysis on Murray that justifies his RB1 ranking. If you want to jump in and prove me wrong, I'd welcome it. But I'm very comfortable being out on a limb on this one.
Yesterday I focused on Derrick Henry's undervalued position. Today I'll say a few words about DeMarco Murray.
Most of the fantasy universe is, to no one's surprise, bullish about Murray. Only three out of 57 experts rank him outside the top 11 in PPR, while none of the 94 Standard prognosticators place him worse than 13th (with 89 ranking him inside the top 10). At his best, Murray is an elite RB--one of the safest late-first-round / early-second-rounders out there. But he carries several yellow flags into the 2017 season, all of which lead to significant doubt that he can meet expectations.
First, Henry isn't going anywhere. Murray ran slightly worse than his backfield counterpart last year (4.4 YPC vs. 4.5 YPC) and lost out on many goal-line carries. It's inconceivable that Henry will cede even more touches to Murray in 2017. In other words, Murray's huge bounce-back 2016 season is his ceiling--and it's a ceiling that's dropping as Henry's acclimation to the league improves.
Second, Murray is coming off a 346-touch season. By Week 1, he'll be closer to 30 years old than 29. In other words, this idea that Murray will continue to be a workhorse is shortsighted. Tennessee is eyeing not only a playoff berth, but a reasonable chance at an AFC title game. As I wrote late last season, this is a team that no one will want to play in a one-and-done scenario. Except this year, Marcus Mariota is more experienced, Henry's more experienced, the defense has improved, and the receiving game has improved. There's no incentive for Tennessee to run Murray into the ground when Henry has proven to be a capable tandem player.
Tangential to this point, for his career Murray averages 4.84 YPC in September and October and 4.36 YPC November-January. Last year he achieved a 5.98 YPC in September and owned a 4.13 YPC thereafter. This is a guy who's at his worst later in the season. Some of this could be due to playing hurt. And granted, some guys play better later in the season and others don't; Murray's case is not unusual. But it's been a consistent issue, and we shouldn't expect it to reverse itself in his seventh NFL campaign.
I get it: it's hard to pass on a guy like Murray if he falls in your lap. But who gets to decide that he's a top 10 RB? And why? We challenge assumptions when the assumptions are based on flawed logic. I have yet to read any analysis on Murray that justifies his RB1 ranking. If you want to jump in and prove me wrong, I'd welcome it. But I'm very comfortable being out on a limb on this one.