Contrarian Prediction #6: Derrick Henry (RB-38 ADP Standard / RB-43 ADP PPR) Will Be a Top 28 RB Standard / Top 32 RB PPR
Last summer, Tennessee Offensive Coordinator Terry Robiskie said the Titans would go with the hot hand at running back. Sounds strange now, with DeMarco Murray coming off the second-best season of his six-year career. But earlier in 2016, Murray had just wrapped up the worst campaign of his career, while Tennessee used a second round pick on former Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Why would this franchise burn a high pick on an RB . . . unless they had some concerns about Murray, who at that point had played all 16 games in only one of five seasons?
Henry posted RB4 numbers on 4.5 YPC last year despite earning only 123 touches compared to 346 for Murray. As expected, fantasy experts across the nation are nearly uniform in their belief that Henry won't do any better in 2017. In PPR, 53 of 57 experts place him outside the top 32, with presumed luminaries like Field Yates and Mike Clay from ESPN and Michael Beller from Sports Illustrated placing him 50th or worse. 92 of 94 rank Henry outside the top 28 in Standard.
The widespread belief--and what expert rankings continually reflect--is that Murray will once again dominate touches and en route to another brilliant season, while the highly talented Henry remains merely a glorified handcuff. Don't believe it.
With Murray getting massive fantasy love this preseason as a presumptive bell cow, I have a contrarian perspective: Henry will earn 175+ touches, bumping him into RB3+ territory. In other words, even if Murray doesn't miss a game, Henry will still earn a greater share of backfield looks. I'll focus on Murray in tomorrow's column. For now, don't trust what others are feeding you regarding Tennessee's RBs. Henry is a progression candidate and is a bargain at his RB-34 ADP, not to mention a steal based on most expert rankings.
This is yet another example of last year's stats clouding fantasy perspectives. Contrarianism and "playing it safe" don't mix. Assuming the same thing will happen year after year is playing it safe. Identifying a new trend line is the key to well-placed contrarianism.
Henry posted RB4 numbers on 4.5 YPC last year despite earning only 123 touches compared to 346 for Murray. As expected, fantasy experts across the nation are nearly uniform in their belief that Henry won't do any better in 2017. In PPR, 53 of 57 experts place him outside the top 32, with presumed luminaries like Field Yates and Mike Clay from ESPN and Michael Beller from Sports Illustrated placing him 50th or worse. 92 of 94 rank Henry outside the top 28 in Standard.
The widespread belief--and what expert rankings continually reflect--is that Murray will once again dominate touches and en route to another brilliant season, while the highly talented Henry remains merely a glorified handcuff. Don't believe it.
With Murray getting massive fantasy love this preseason as a presumptive bell cow, I have a contrarian perspective: Henry will earn 175+ touches, bumping him into RB3+ territory. In other words, even if Murray doesn't miss a game, Henry will still earn a greater share of backfield looks. I'll focus on Murray in tomorrow's column. For now, don't trust what others are feeding you regarding Tennessee's RBs. Henry is a progression candidate and is a bargain at his RB-34 ADP, not to mention a steal based on most expert rankings.
This is yet another example of last year's stats clouding fantasy perspectives. Contrarianism and "playing it safe" don't mix. Assuming the same thing will happen year after year is playing it safe. Identifying a new trend line is the key to well-placed contrarianism.