After two injury-marred seasons, last year Marqise Lee finally flashed the skills that earned him the 39th selection in the 2014 draft. With Allen Robinson stumbling and Allen Hurns unable to stay healthy, Lee nearly became Blake Bortles' #1 target.
Now Hurns is healthy, a rebound for Robinson is expected, and Bortles is either a terrible QB or vastly underrated depending on who you believe. Where does that leave Lee? Did he fill a need when Jacksonville needed someone to step up? Or did he turn a corner?
The fantasy universe is pretty clear on this front: Lee is almost entirely undraftable. His WR-ADP is 77 Standard and 70 PPR. Last season's 70th highest scoring PPR wideout was Robby Anderson, sandwiched between Brian Quick and Seth Roberts. Is this all making sense? Lee isn't getting the love he deserves, though most experts disagree with me: among the Fantasy Pros-compiled experts, Lee's ranked 67th in Standard and 68th in PPR.
The prevailing assumption is that Hurns will reclaim the #2 spot or essentially split Lee's looks, Jacksonville's running game will earn more red-zone touches, and Bortles will be asked to throw less. All reasonable. But what's missing is what happens with Robinson, who's overvalued as a top 20 fantasy receiver. In any particular game this season, any of these three receivers will step up. All are capable of 100-yard / one-TD performances.
No expert publicly places Lee higher than 52 in Standard and 48 in PPR. I'm going with top 40 production. Lee's 851/3 line from 2016 is entirely replicable, and he should improve on it if he wins the #2 job. Target him as an end-of-draft, automatic WR4/5 with WR3 upside.
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As you can see, "Bold Predictions" are now called "Contrarian Predictions." Justifiably, some of you have called me out for the boldness of various predictions over the years. "Bold" is a subjective term; one person's boldness is another's obvious call. "Contrarian" hits on the intent of these predictions, which are based on how outside-the-norm they are compared to the rest of the known fantasy universe.
So if all of the roughly 90 experts from ESPN, NFL.com, Bleacher Report, etc. are pushing Carlos Hyde as a top 26 fantasy RB (hint: they do), then my view of Hyde is contrarian. Those who agree with me can argue whether it's bold, but objectively it's entirely against the grain.
And that's the point of these predictions: to give each of us an edge over the rest of the fantasy universe. If we're drafting a guy in the sixth round who's likely to give us third-round value--and if everyone else was waiting to get him in the eighth--then we've just capitalized on an advantage. "Contrarian" picks, when accurate, give us the type of advantage that can help win leagues.
Now Hurns is healthy, a rebound for Robinson is expected, and Bortles is either a terrible QB or vastly underrated depending on who you believe. Where does that leave Lee? Did he fill a need when Jacksonville needed someone to step up? Or did he turn a corner?
The fantasy universe is pretty clear on this front: Lee is almost entirely undraftable. His WR-ADP is 77 Standard and 70 PPR. Last season's 70th highest scoring PPR wideout was Robby Anderson, sandwiched between Brian Quick and Seth Roberts. Is this all making sense? Lee isn't getting the love he deserves, though most experts disagree with me: among the Fantasy Pros-compiled experts, Lee's ranked 67th in Standard and 68th in PPR.
The prevailing assumption is that Hurns will reclaim the #2 spot or essentially split Lee's looks, Jacksonville's running game will earn more red-zone touches, and Bortles will be asked to throw less. All reasonable. But what's missing is what happens with Robinson, who's overvalued as a top 20 fantasy receiver. In any particular game this season, any of these three receivers will step up. All are capable of 100-yard / one-TD performances.
No expert publicly places Lee higher than 52 in Standard and 48 in PPR. I'm going with top 40 production. Lee's 851/3 line from 2016 is entirely replicable, and he should improve on it if he wins the #2 job. Target him as an end-of-draft, automatic WR4/5 with WR3 upside.
---
As you can see, "Bold Predictions" are now called "Contrarian Predictions." Justifiably, some of you have called me out for the boldness of various predictions over the years. "Bold" is a subjective term; one person's boldness is another's obvious call. "Contrarian" hits on the intent of these predictions, which are based on how outside-the-norm they are compared to the rest of the known fantasy universe.
So if all of the roughly 90 experts from ESPN, NFL.com, Bleacher Report, etc. are pushing Carlos Hyde as a top 26 fantasy RB (hint: they do), then my view of Hyde is contrarian. Those who agree with me can argue whether it's bold, but objectively it's entirely against the grain.
And that's the point of these predictions: to give each of us an edge over the rest of the fantasy universe. If we're drafting a guy in the sixth round who's likely to give us third-round value--and if everyone else was waiting to get him in the eighth--then we've just capitalized on an advantage. "Contrarian" picks, when accurate, give us the type of advantage that can help win leagues.