Contrarian Prediction #3: Julian Edelman (WR-24 ADP Standard / WR-22 ADP PPR) Won't Be a Top 32 WR in Standard or a top 28 WR in PPR
Julian Edelman was last year's 25th highest standard scoring fantasy WR in standard and 15th in PPR . . . and somehow the average fantasy manager thinks he'll do just as well this year. That makes no sense.
The 31-year-old Edelman has led New England in targets in three of the past four seasons. In one of those three he led the team despite missing two games. In the fourth season, he was second in targets behind Gronk despite missing seven games. That's how central Edelman has been to New England's offense, and that's why so many fantasy managers view him as a reliable back-end WR2 in standard-scoring leagues.
But even finishing third in the league in 2016 targets didn't translate into dominance or even near-dominance. I want to stress that last sentence: Edelman's stats didn't reflect his being one of the NFL's leading aerial focal points. Historically, he's been a reliable volume receiver whose numbers have been padded by virtue of being Tom Brady's favorite target (particularly when Gronk's sidelined). His fantasy relevance hinges on volume.
The 2017 Patriots are even more stacked, and that's bad news for those relying on another WR2 season for Edelman. While it's possible he'll clear 100 targets, the addition of Brandin Cooks pushes the veteran down at least one notch, while a presumably more efficient running game led by Mike Gillislee and an ascending James White will push him down another notch. Add in a healthy Gronk (for now), and Edelman will top out at 950/5, pushing him outside the top 32 wideouts in standard and outside the top 28 in PPR.
The 31-year-old Edelman has led New England in targets in three of the past four seasons. In one of those three he led the team despite missing two games. In the fourth season, he was second in targets behind Gronk despite missing seven games. That's how central Edelman has been to New England's offense, and that's why so many fantasy managers view him as a reliable back-end WR2 in standard-scoring leagues.
But even finishing third in the league in 2016 targets didn't translate into dominance or even near-dominance. I want to stress that last sentence: Edelman's stats didn't reflect his being one of the NFL's leading aerial focal points. Historically, he's been a reliable volume receiver whose numbers have been padded by virtue of being Tom Brady's favorite target (particularly when Gronk's sidelined). His fantasy relevance hinges on volume.
The 2017 Patriots are even more stacked, and that's bad news for those relying on another WR2 season for Edelman. While it's possible he'll clear 100 targets, the addition of Brandin Cooks pushes the veteran down at least one notch, while a presumably more efficient running game led by Mike Gillislee and an ascending James White will push him down another notch. Add in a healthy Gronk (for now), and Edelman will top out at 950/5, pushing him outside the top 32 wideouts in standard and outside the top 28 in PPR.