Each summer I write a post walking through my first (and often sole) fantasy draft of the season. This might seem self-aggrandizing: "Look at all these great picks I made." But most of you know that's not how it goes down. First, it can take weeks or even months to accurately evaluate the success of one's draft. Second, I'm only human and am prone to making mild or serious mistakes, such as overreaching for a player (instead of sticking to my rankings sheet) or playing defense by grabbing a guy simply to fill a positional hole.
This year I'm competing for the first time in the Scott Fish Bowl, which brings together several hundred fantasy competitors in 12-team divisions. The group consists of many of the most notable fantasy football experts out there. My division includes a guy from CBS Sports, another from Rotowire, and an array of other talented fantasy minds, including our very own Joseph Bowker--an FF4W community member since 2014.
The rules are a bit odd: Each roster is comprised of 22 players, and we have to start 11 of them: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (can flex 1 QB). Passing TDs are worth six points, while rushing/receiving TDs are worth five. To more than compensate, rushing and receiving first downs are worth one point--but TE first downs are worth 2.5 points. These rules make QBs uber-valuable, since flexing a QB will give you about 50%-75% more points on average than flexing a different positional player. These rules also make top-10 TEs as valuable or more valuable than most RBs and WRs.
This was a "slow" draft that began 17 days ago and ended yesterday morning. For those who aren't familiar with slow drafts, in this league owners get up to eight hours to make a selection. The average wait time is about an hour. It has its advantages, though after going through it, I'd prefer to knock everything out in one sitting, where better preparation has a greater advantage.
Rounds 1-3
I had the first pick overall, which I tried to trade, since I would have preferred to draft two elite QBs than one elite RB (for perspective, under these rules, David Johnson scored 421 points last year and Aaron Rodgers racked up 458). But trades aren't allowed, so my first pick needed to be Johnson; if he matches last year's totals, the gap between him and the fifth or sixth best RB should be bigger than the gap between the #1 and #5/6 QB. Then I watched 22 great players drop off the board, including arguably the six top QBs. Picking back-to-back in the second and third rounds, my first big decision of the draft was whether I take zero, one, or two QBs. If zero, then I'll be looking at mostly middling QBs in rounds 4 and 5, meaning a huge competitive disadvantage at that position. The top receivers put up around 250-275 points through these scoring rules, so I felt like I had little choice. I went with Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins, with the realistic hope that both will finish in the top 6-12 if they remain healthy (a big "if" for Big Ben).
Rounds 4-7
By the time it gets back to me, I'm happy with the decision, as six more QBs were taken. Having made sure Ben and Cousins had different bye weeks, I still needed a third QB to maximize my points potential during those bye weeks and for whenever Ben or Cousins had a really tough matchup. Luckily, Eli Manning was still there. I'm higher on him than most and grabbed him without too much hesitation. Even more remarkably, Dez Bryant was still available. Now before anyone thinks that's ridiculous oversight by my opponents, only nine WRs had been drafted--again, because of the unique scoring rules. But Dez has top 5 WR potential if he stays healthy, so taking him was a no-brainer.
At the turn at rounds 6 and 7, I faced an even tougher decision. I wanted a second RB but consciously wanted to avoid rushing into it. With an 11-player bench, I plan to stock up on RB handcuffs. So why take the best available three-down back (Paul Perkins) when I can wait 5-7 rounds and take a few guys with a 25%-35% chance of becoming three-down backs later this season? So I went with Davante Adams (whose 2016 stats are inflated by a gaudy TD total--he needs more yards to be useful at this draft spot) and Eric Ebron. Ebron is an interesting case. I might have been able to wait until my next turns to get him. But if his partial-seasons 2016 stats were projected out over 16 games, he would have easily been a top 10 TE last year. And with Anquan Boldin out of Detroit, Ebron should get more red-zone looks, upping his deceptively poor TD showing (only one score last season). He's not a glamorous pick, especially with top 14-20 RBs and top 14-20 WRs sitting out there. But at 2.5 points per first down, if he can get me a 700/5 line, he's worth the investment. And I think he'll be better than that.
Rounds 8-11
Of the next 22 picks, 17 are RBs or WRs. But four WRs I'm targeting remain on the board. All four are their team's #1 targets with strong top 20 fantasy WR potential: Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kelvin Benjamin. While I'm running out of time to take even a split-time RB, all clear-cut WR2s and many WR3s will be gone by the time the draft gets back to me. I go with Landry and Benjamin, with the latter offering the most upside of any of them.
Then once again, 17 of the next 22 picks are RBs or WRs. Since we're not selecting kickers or defenses / special teams, this trend should grow even more pronounced as the draft continues. I need to start stashing high-upside non-starting RBs before my opponents grab most of them. Rookie Joe Williams plays in a relatively bad offense, but he'll be running behind one of the league's most fragile RBs: Carlos Hyde. Some believe a strong August could push Williams into a complementary role out of the gate. I take the chance, knowing that he'll likely be either a 10th round bust or bargain. For pick #11, solid passing-game RBs like Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson, and James White are still available. All three present immediate RB3/4 value. But drafting them would be hedging. I don't want 5-8 points per game; I want 2-15. I want a guy who could become one of the best at his position. Riddick, Johnson, and White are largely capped by their roles; none are well-suited to become every-down or even two-down backs. The highest-upside positional player remaining is Coby Fleener--my fifth-ranked TE despite owning a TE-16 ADP. While strongly considering Austin Hooper instead, I go with the veteran with the stronger track record.
Rounds 12-15
Assuming I start two QBs every week (one in the flex), given my weakness at RB, two or three of my flex spots will need to be WRs, meaning I'll need to start five or six per week. With only four WRs on my roster and plenty of adequate streaming options available, I grab Marvin Jones. Jones's history is more about potential than actual delivery, but I like his floor as the #2 receiver in a strong passing attack, and I like that he's shown flashes during his career. WR2/3 upside exists if enough things click. I also continue my RB handcuff strategy, selecting rookie Marlon Mack, who could back up the 34-year-old Frank Gore. Some believe Robert Turbin has a claim to that spot. I might add Turbin later for extra insurance. The decision is not easy; Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Williams remain on the board. But I prefer the unproven, talented Mack to a conceivably less talented Williams and the "everything has to go perfectly" Charles.
Targets like Jonathan Williams, Jeremy Hill, and Darren McFadden are taken before it's my turn again. Given my skepticism of Ty Montgomery carrying even close to a full load in Green Bay, and with Packer rookie Jamaal Williams gone, I take a chance on fellow rookie Aaron Jones in the 14th round. He's a bigger longshot at big production than your typical handcuff, but if he shows well in August, he'll be a potential steal at this spot. Speaking of steals, with the first pick of the 15th round, I take one of my biggest late-round targets: Zay Jones. If Sammy Watkins misses any games (entirely conceivable), Jones could become Tyrod Taylor's #1 target. The addition of Zay means I continue to have all #1 and #2 team targets--a key in fantasy, where volume usually matters (and particularly with first downs translating into points). This is also a good example of why it's critically important to track bargains late in drafts. Keep a list of them somewhere and refer to them before making each selection.
Rounds 16-19
The next time around, my two picks are almost identical to my last two. I start with another backup RB with solid upside: Kenyan Drake. Jay Ajayi could be Miami's franchise RB. But Drake gives me yet another guy with a 25%-35% chance of starting games later this year. Now armed with four likely handcuffs, I'm hoping to add at least two more before the draft ends. And just as Zay Jones is a bargain #2 WR with WR3 upside, so is the undrafted Marqise Lee. I wanted Lee several rounds ago but waited, as his ADP was low enough to keep him off opponents' radars. Now he's the second-best (according to ADP) player remaining on the draft board, so it's time to move. I've been following Lee's career closely since he was drafted, and I've written about him several times over the years. Don't be surprised if Lee outscores Allen Robinson several times this season. I'm thrilled to have seven startable WRs, six of whom I can start every week.
For picks 18 and 19, I once again go RB-WR, despite wishing I felt comfortable enough with my WRs to go RB-RB. Marvin Jones has one of the widest projection variances of any receiver: we could see Jones at his best--a top 25 receiver challenging Golden Tate for #1 duties--or he might not even finish inside the top 60, as his final eight games of 2016 hint at (38 yards per game, zero TDs). So for the first time in the draft, I hedge, taking a guy who could be fantasy irrelevant if Jones thrives, and who could be a back-end starter if Jones flops. Rookie Kenny Golladay doesn't make my team better; he makes it more secure. It's a somewhat painful acknowledgement that neither he nor Jones were my best options when I took them. Right before snagging Golladay, I pick up yet another RB handcuff--and my sixth rookie--Wayne Gallman. After passing on Paul Perkins several rounds ago, I add his most obvious backup who, although unproven and possessing some yellow flags, is a worthwhile dart throw with a mostly unproven RB running ahead of him.
Rounds 20-22
Up to this point, I haven't taken a handcuff for David Johnson because that situation is simply too murky. With Chris Johnson's signing between my 19th and 20th picks, I'm relieved I held back. If D. Johnson goes down, any combination of CJ?K, Kerwynn Williams, Andre Ellington, and T.J. Logan could pick up the slack. So I'll continue to stay away, and instead will focus on adding Johnson's backup off waivers if someone officially wins the job.
In the meantime, I'm eyeing two more RBs among six available candidates: Donnel Pumphrey, Jeremy McNichols, Elijah Hood, Tarik Cohen, Elijah McGuire, and Chris Ivory. As you can see, I'm trying to find a needle in a dozen haystacks. For the past few rounds I've been researching each of these guys, hoping to discover whose ceilings are highest. With a backfield roster overflowing with rookies, I grab the only non-rookie on this list: Ivory. If he doesn't get cut in training camp, the 29-year-old is a longshot for RB4+ production, but if Leonard Fournette is sidelined, anything can happen. Then I hedge a bit and grab Pumphrey, who many people suspect will never be a three-down back. But if he shows well in August, Pumphrey could give me RB6+ value starting Week 1, which although pretty pathetic, could sustain my RB2 slot for a few weeks until I get a lucky break from another RB. After another up-and-down, I'm left with the draft's final pick. Hood and Cohen are still available. Hood probably will open the season as the Raiders' #4 tailback, while Cohen has more limited upside as a likely committee RB. With little to lose, and with little faith in the 30-year-old LeGarrette Blount and reasonable reservations about the 34-year-old Darren Sproles, I add another Eagle RB--Wendell Smallwood. I'm thinking that between him and Pumphrey, one has a good shot at meaningful touches this year. It's yet another hedge, but at pick #264, it's a solid-upside gamble.
My roster:
QB -- Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning (start 1 or 2)
RB -- David Johnson, Joe Williams, Kenyan Drake, Marlon Mack, Donnel Pumphrey, Wendell Smallwood, Chris Ivory, Aaron Jones, Wayne Gallman (start 2-6)
WR -- Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Marqise Lee, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay (start 3-7)
TE -- Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener (start 1-5)
I feel good at QB, WR, and TE. My RB situation is the wild card, but with QBs being such a hot commodity, I knew early on I'd have to sacrifice one position. I declined to add Tevin Coleman, Mike Gillislee, Ty Montgomery, or Ameer Abdullah in the 4th/5th to secure Eli and Dez; if I hadn't, the best QB on the board when it came back to me in the 6th would have been Sam Bradford. I passed on Paul Perkins in the 6th/7th to land Adams and Ebron, knowing that Perkins was the last presumptive three-down back remaining.
I continue to wonder whether Tate and Fitzgerald will be better than Landry and/or Benjamin. And I question my decision to draft Cousins and Big Ben when Derek Carr and Dak Prescott were also available. So many judgment calls and no obvious answers (at least from my perspective--many of you might disagree).
My biggest hope when drafting is to land the most high-upside guys possible while still fielding a competitive team. If my RB handcuff strategy pays off, I'll have a good shot at a fantastic season. If it doesn't, I'll be at a competitive disadvantage for much of the year. I can live with that.
This year I'm competing for the first time in the Scott Fish Bowl, which brings together several hundred fantasy competitors in 12-team divisions. The group consists of many of the most notable fantasy football experts out there. My division includes a guy from CBS Sports, another from Rotowire, and an array of other talented fantasy minds, including our very own Joseph Bowker--an FF4W community member since 2014.
The rules are a bit odd: Each roster is comprised of 22 players, and we have to start 11 of them: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex (can flex 1 QB). Passing TDs are worth six points, while rushing/receiving TDs are worth five. To more than compensate, rushing and receiving first downs are worth one point--but TE first downs are worth 2.5 points. These rules make QBs uber-valuable, since flexing a QB will give you about 50%-75% more points on average than flexing a different positional player. These rules also make top-10 TEs as valuable or more valuable than most RBs and WRs.
This was a "slow" draft that began 17 days ago and ended yesterday morning. For those who aren't familiar with slow drafts, in this league owners get up to eight hours to make a selection. The average wait time is about an hour. It has its advantages, though after going through it, I'd prefer to knock everything out in one sitting, where better preparation has a greater advantage.
Rounds 1-3
I had the first pick overall, which I tried to trade, since I would have preferred to draft two elite QBs than one elite RB (for perspective, under these rules, David Johnson scored 421 points last year and Aaron Rodgers racked up 458). But trades aren't allowed, so my first pick needed to be Johnson; if he matches last year's totals, the gap between him and the fifth or sixth best RB should be bigger than the gap between the #1 and #5/6 QB. Then I watched 22 great players drop off the board, including arguably the six top QBs. Picking back-to-back in the second and third rounds, my first big decision of the draft was whether I take zero, one, or two QBs. If zero, then I'll be looking at mostly middling QBs in rounds 4 and 5, meaning a huge competitive disadvantage at that position. The top receivers put up around 250-275 points through these scoring rules, so I felt like I had little choice. I went with Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins, with the realistic hope that both will finish in the top 6-12 if they remain healthy (a big "if" for Big Ben).
Rounds 4-7
By the time it gets back to me, I'm happy with the decision, as six more QBs were taken. Having made sure Ben and Cousins had different bye weeks, I still needed a third QB to maximize my points potential during those bye weeks and for whenever Ben or Cousins had a really tough matchup. Luckily, Eli Manning was still there. I'm higher on him than most and grabbed him without too much hesitation. Even more remarkably, Dez Bryant was still available. Now before anyone thinks that's ridiculous oversight by my opponents, only nine WRs had been drafted--again, because of the unique scoring rules. But Dez has top 5 WR potential if he stays healthy, so taking him was a no-brainer.
At the turn at rounds 6 and 7, I faced an even tougher decision. I wanted a second RB but consciously wanted to avoid rushing into it. With an 11-player bench, I plan to stock up on RB handcuffs. So why take the best available three-down back (Paul Perkins) when I can wait 5-7 rounds and take a few guys with a 25%-35% chance of becoming three-down backs later this season? So I went with Davante Adams (whose 2016 stats are inflated by a gaudy TD total--he needs more yards to be useful at this draft spot) and Eric Ebron. Ebron is an interesting case. I might have been able to wait until my next turns to get him. But if his partial-seasons 2016 stats were projected out over 16 games, he would have easily been a top 10 TE last year. And with Anquan Boldin out of Detroit, Ebron should get more red-zone looks, upping his deceptively poor TD showing (only one score last season). He's not a glamorous pick, especially with top 14-20 RBs and top 14-20 WRs sitting out there. But at 2.5 points per first down, if he can get me a 700/5 line, he's worth the investment. And I think he'll be better than that.
Rounds 8-11
Of the next 22 picks, 17 are RBs or WRs. But four WRs I'm targeting remain on the board. All four are their team's #1 targets with strong top 20 fantasy WR potential: Jarvis Landry, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kelvin Benjamin. While I'm running out of time to take even a split-time RB, all clear-cut WR2s and many WR3s will be gone by the time the draft gets back to me. I go with Landry and Benjamin, with the latter offering the most upside of any of them.
Then once again, 17 of the next 22 picks are RBs or WRs. Since we're not selecting kickers or defenses / special teams, this trend should grow even more pronounced as the draft continues. I need to start stashing high-upside non-starting RBs before my opponents grab most of them. Rookie Joe Williams plays in a relatively bad offense, but he'll be running behind one of the league's most fragile RBs: Carlos Hyde. Some believe a strong August could push Williams into a complementary role out of the gate. I take the chance, knowing that he'll likely be either a 10th round bust or bargain. For pick #11, solid passing-game RBs like Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson, and James White are still available. All three present immediate RB3/4 value. But drafting them would be hedging. I don't want 5-8 points per game; I want 2-15. I want a guy who could become one of the best at his position. Riddick, Johnson, and White are largely capped by their roles; none are well-suited to become every-down or even two-down backs. The highest-upside positional player remaining is Coby Fleener--my fifth-ranked TE despite owning a TE-16 ADP. While strongly considering Austin Hooper instead, I go with the veteran with the stronger track record.
Rounds 12-15
Assuming I start two QBs every week (one in the flex), given my weakness at RB, two or three of my flex spots will need to be WRs, meaning I'll need to start five or six per week. With only four WRs on my roster and plenty of adequate streaming options available, I grab Marvin Jones. Jones's history is more about potential than actual delivery, but I like his floor as the #2 receiver in a strong passing attack, and I like that he's shown flashes during his career. WR2/3 upside exists if enough things click. I also continue my RB handcuff strategy, selecting rookie Marlon Mack, who could back up the 34-year-old Frank Gore. Some believe Robert Turbin has a claim to that spot. I might add Turbin later for extra insurance. The decision is not easy; Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Williams remain on the board. But I prefer the unproven, talented Mack to a conceivably less talented Williams and the "everything has to go perfectly" Charles.
Targets like Jonathan Williams, Jeremy Hill, and Darren McFadden are taken before it's my turn again. Given my skepticism of Ty Montgomery carrying even close to a full load in Green Bay, and with Packer rookie Jamaal Williams gone, I take a chance on fellow rookie Aaron Jones in the 14th round. He's a bigger longshot at big production than your typical handcuff, but if he shows well in August, he'll be a potential steal at this spot. Speaking of steals, with the first pick of the 15th round, I take one of my biggest late-round targets: Zay Jones. If Sammy Watkins misses any games (entirely conceivable), Jones could become Tyrod Taylor's #1 target. The addition of Zay means I continue to have all #1 and #2 team targets--a key in fantasy, where volume usually matters (and particularly with first downs translating into points). This is also a good example of why it's critically important to track bargains late in drafts. Keep a list of them somewhere and refer to them before making each selection.
Rounds 16-19
The next time around, my two picks are almost identical to my last two. I start with another backup RB with solid upside: Kenyan Drake. Jay Ajayi could be Miami's franchise RB. But Drake gives me yet another guy with a 25%-35% chance of starting games later this year. Now armed with four likely handcuffs, I'm hoping to add at least two more before the draft ends. And just as Zay Jones is a bargain #2 WR with WR3 upside, so is the undrafted Marqise Lee. I wanted Lee several rounds ago but waited, as his ADP was low enough to keep him off opponents' radars. Now he's the second-best (according to ADP) player remaining on the draft board, so it's time to move. I've been following Lee's career closely since he was drafted, and I've written about him several times over the years. Don't be surprised if Lee outscores Allen Robinson several times this season. I'm thrilled to have seven startable WRs, six of whom I can start every week.
For picks 18 and 19, I once again go RB-WR, despite wishing I felt comfortable enough with my WRs to go RB-RB. Marvin Jones has one of the widest projection variances of any receiver: we could see Jones at his best--a top 25 receiver challenging Golden Tate for #1 duties--or he might not even finish inside the top 60, as his final eight games of 2016 hint at (38 yards per game, zero TDs). So for the first time in the draft, I hedge, taking a guy who could be fantasy irrelevant if Jones thrives, and who could be a back-end starter if Jones flops. Rookie Kenny Golladay doesn't make my team better; he makes it more secure. It's a somewhat painful acknowledgement that neither he nor Jones were my best options when I took them. Right before snagging Golladay, I pick up yet another RB handcuff--and my sixth rookie--Wayne Gallman. After passing on Paul Perkins several rounds ago, I add his most obvious backup who, although unproven and possessing some yellow flags, is a worthwhile dart throw with a mostly unproven RB running ahead of him.
Rounds 20-22
Up to this point, I haven't taken a handcuff for David Johnson because that situation is simply too murky. With Chris Johnson's signing between my 19th and 20th picks, I'm relieved I held back. If D. Johnson goes down, any combination of CJ?K, Kerwynn Williams, Andre Ellington, and T.J. Logan could pick up the slack. So I'll continue to stay away, and instead will focus on adding Johnson's backup off waivers if someone officially wins the job.
In the meantime, I'm eyeing two more RBs among six available candidates: Donnel Pumphrey, Jeremy McNichols, Elijah Hood, Tarik Cohen, Elijah McGuire, and Chris Ivory. As you can see, I'm trying to find a needle in a dozen haystacks. For the past few rounds I've been researching each of these guys, hoping to discover whose ceilings are highest. With a backfield roster overflowing with rookies, I grab the only non-rookie on this list: Ivory. If he doesn't get cut in training camp, the 29-year-old is a longshot for RB4+ production, but if Leonard Fournette is sidelined, anything can happen. Then I hedge a bit and grab Pumphrey, who many people suspect will never be a three-down back. But if he shows well in August, Pumphrey could give me RB6+ value starting Week 1, which although pretty pathetic, could sustain my RB2 slot for a few weeks until I get a lucky break from another RB. After another up-and-down, I'm left with the draft's final pick. Hood and Cohen are still available. Hood probably will open the season as the Raiders' #4 tailback, while Cohen has more limited upside as a likely committee RB. With little to lose, and with little faith in the 30-year-old LeGarrette Blount and reasonable reservations about the 34-year-old Darren Sproles, I add another Eagle RB--Wendell Smallwood. I'm thinking that between him and Pumphrey, one has a good shot at meaningful touches this year. It's yet another hedge, but at pick #264, it's a solid-upside gamble.
My roster:
QB -- Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Eli Manning (start 1 or 2)
RB -- David Johnson, Joe Williams, Kenyan Drake, Marlon Mack, Donnel Pumphrey, Wendell Smallwood, Chris Ivory, Aaron Jones, Wayne Gallman (start 2-6)
WR -- Dez Bryant, Kelvin Benjamin, Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry, Marqise Lee, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay (start 3-7)
TE -- Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener (start 1-5)
I feel good at QB, WR, and TE. My RB situation is the wild card, but with QBs being such a hot commodity, I knew early on I'd have to sacrifice one position. I declined to add Tevin Coleman, Mike Gillislee, Ty Montgomery, or Ameer Abdullah in the 4th/5th to secure Eli and Dez; if I hadn't, the best QB on the board when it came back to me in the 6th would have been Sam Bradford. I passed on Paul Perkins in the 6th/7th to land Adams and Ebron, knowing that Perkins was the last presumptive three-down back remaining.
I continue to wonder whether Tate and Fitzgerald will be better than Landry and/or Benjamin. And I question my decision to draft Cousins and Big Ben when Derek Carr and Dak Prescott were also available. So many judgment calls and no obvious answers (at least from my perspective--many of you might disagree).
My biggest hope when drafting is to land the most high-upside guys possible while still fielding a competitive team. If my RB handcuff strategy pays off, I'll have a good shot at a fantastic season. If it doesn't, I'll be at a competitive disadvantage for much of the year. I can live with that.