A Shift in FF4W (Standard vs. PPR), and Contrarian Prediction #4: Carlos Hyde (RB-16 ADP Standard / RB-14 ADP PPR) Won't Be a Top 26 RB
Before jumping into prediction #4, one important shift in how FF4W operates:
I've always used standard scoring for evaluating players. In nearly 30 years of competing in fantasy sports leagues, I've played by literally dozens of different scoring rules. "Standard" has been the baseline by which we can begin to understand a player's scoring output or potential. It's a common language from which we can easily deviate in any direction.
A few days ago I conducted an informal online poll that garnered about 150 responses. By a 5-to-1 margin, PPR was the preferred scoring style. So I started looking into it and found that for the first time, ESPN has now adopted PPR as its default league setup. Is this a trend or a shift that precedes another shift in the coming years? Who knows. But FF4W content needs to remain relevant. So beginning today--and backdated for the other "contrarian predictions"--I'll start discussing standard and PPR in tandem. This means each contrarian prediction for RBs, WRs, and TEs will include one for standard and another for PPR. Waiver and trade advice will incorporate both whenever possible. And of course, my preseason rankings are getting split into two separate spreadsheets (the first PPR rankings are going out to subscribers tomorrow).
What I need from you: When you ask a question, specify your scoring rules. If it's a two-QB standard league, say that. If it's half-point PPR, write it down. That way I and the other FF4W commenters can offer more pointed advice, rather than assuming you're in standard or PPR or whatever.
We want to keep this page relevant for everyone. If most of you are competing in PPR, that matters. And for those of you using standard, ignore those who say it's out-of-fashion. There's no "best" way to play fantasy football. My philosophy when joining a league is, "Tell me the rules, and I'll try figure out how to win." It's the winning that matters.
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2016 marked Carlos Hyde's best output in three NFL seasons, one that placed him 15th among fantasy RBs and established him as the lone bright spot on an otherwise irrelevant fantasy team. Heading into year #4, Hyde's 2016 numbers are being viewed as the new norm. His ADP suggests he should be drafted in the late second or early third round. The 88 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him 15th on average in standard-scoring and 14th in PPR, with no one placing him worse than 26th in standard and only one person listing him worse than 26th in PPR.
Such bullishness makes sense only if we consider that Hyde fared well despite playing only 13 games. "Imagine what he could do with 16," some wonder.
But few running backs are more injury prone. Few play for a worse offensive team (where TDs will be harder to come by). And few play on a team with a worse defense.
Taken together, we're looking at a player with perhaps the lowest ceiling of any perceived "top 25" fantasy RB. Let's zoom in on a glaring red flag. Last year Hyde averaged 16.7 rushes per game. Not bad at all. But he's rarely involved in the passing game, meaning when the game gets out of hand, he's relatively useless. Unfortunately, in 2017 the Niners will again be playing from behind early and often. Last season only 42% of Hyde's carries occurred in the second half--and only 16% in the fourth quarter (averaging less than three carries per fourth quarter). His 3.9 second half YPC was a full yard worse than his first-half efficiency. These trends were similar--though not quite as pronounced--in 2015.
With Hyde, you're hoping for four things: (1) dominant first quarters, (2) winnable games, and (3) good health (he's averaging nearly five missed games per season), and (4) no competition. For #4, Joe Williams has enough buzz to pose some risk to Hyde's bell-cow standing, while the newly signed Tim Hightower offers a veteran presence and some goal-line vulturing potential.
All told, drafting Hyde makes about as much sense as drafting any RB3. If everything breaks right, he'll be a weekly starter, and I'll eat my words. But everything won't break right.
I've always used standard scoring for evaluating players. In nearly 30 years of competing in fantasy sports leagues, I've played by literally dozens of different scoring rules. "Standard" has been the baseline by which we can begin to understand a player's scoring output or potential. It's a common language from which we can easily deviate in any direction.
A few days ago I conducted an informal online poll that garnered about 150 responses. By a 5-to-1 margin, PPR was the preferred scoring style. So I started looking into it and found that for the first time, ESPN has now adopted PPR as its default league setup. Is this a trend or a shift that precedes another shift in the coming years? Who knows. But FF4W content needs to remain relevant. So beginning today--and backdated for the other "contrarian predictions"--I'll start discussing standard and PPR in tandem. This means each contrarian prediction for RBs, WRs, and TEs will include one for standard and another for PPR. Waiver and trade advice will incorporate both whenever possible. And of course, my preseason rankings are getting split into two separate spreadsheets (the first PPR rankings are going out to subscribers tomorrow).
What I need from you: When you ask a question, specify your scoring rules. If it's a two-QB standard league, say that. If it's half-point PPR, write it down. That way I and the other FF4W commenters can offer more pointed advice, rather than assuming you're in standard or PPR or whatever.
We want to keep this page relevant for everyone. If most of you are competing in PPR, that matters. And for those of you using standard, ignore those who say it's out-of-fashion. There's no "best" way to play fantasy football. My philosophy when joining a league is, "Tell me the rules, and I'll try figure out how to win." It's the winning that matters.
---
2016 marked Carlos Hyde's best output in three NFL seasons, one that placed him 15th among fantasy RBs and established him as the lone bright spot on an otherwise irrelevant fantasy team. Heading into year #4, Hyde's 2016 numbers are being viewed as the new norm. His ADP suggests he should be drafted in the late second or early third round. The 88 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him 15th on average in standard-scoring and 14th in PPR, with no one placing him worse than 26th in standard and only one person listing him worse than 26th in PPR.
Such bullishness makes sense only if we consider that Hyde fared well despite playing only 13 games. "Imagine what he could do with 16," some wonder.
But few running backs are more injury prone. Few play for a worse offensive team (where TDs will be harder to come by). And few play on a team with a worse defense.
Taken together, we're looking at a player with perhaps the lowest ceiling of any perceived "top 25" fantasy RB. Let's zoom in on a glaring red flag. Last year Hyde averaged 16.7 rushes per game. Not bad at all. But he's rarely involved in the passing game, meaning when the game gets out of hand, he's relatively useless. Unfortunately, in 2017 the Niners will again be playing from behind early and often. Last season only 42% of Hyde's carries occurred in the second half--and only 16% in the fourth quarter (averaging less than three carries per fourth quarter). His 3.9 second half YPC was a full yard worse than his first-half efficiency. These trends were similar--though not quite as pronounced--in 2015.
With Hyde, you're hoping for four things: (1) dominant first quarters, (2) winnable games, and (3) good health (he's averaging nearly five missed games per season), and (4) no competition. For #4, Joe Williams has enough buzz to pose some risk to Hyde's bell-cow standing, while the newly signed Tim Hightower offers a veteran presence and some goal-line vulturing potential.
All told, drafting Hyde makes about as much sense as drafting any RB3. If everything breaks right, he'll be a weekly starter, and I'll eat my words. But everything won't break right.