With the team-by-team rundowns wrapping up, tomorrow I'll shift into my annual "Bold Predictions" for the upcoming season, and I'll also spend some time trying to interpret the latest news, interesting depth chart battles, injuries, and so on. But first . . .
1. Will Mike Gillislee earn RB2 production?
2. Will James White lead the way on passing downs?
3. Is Brandin Cooks a WR1?
4. Will Julian Edelman be a top 25 WR?
5. Is Chris Hogan draftable?
Longtime readers know that when it's come to Tom Brady's fantasy prospects, I've been entirely unreliable. More than once I've counted him out, and each time I've looked like an idiot. What's left to be said? Will we ever see "Bad Tom Brady," or will he hang 'em up after winning his sixth Super Bowl, Michael Jordan-style (circa 1998, not the forgettable 2001-2003 seasons)? If you're drafting Brady at his QB-2 ADP, you're drafting a 40-year-old for whom age does not seem to matter, who hasn't missed a game due to injury in nine years, and who's surrounded by more talent than at any time since 2007 (when he made the jump from serviceable fantasy QB to near-elite). It's a great time to be a Brady fan. Not so good for everyone else.
Patriot RBs scored 18 TDs last season, and they all came from LeGarrette Blount. Yet after letting Blount walk, the team won't lose a step at the RB position. Offseason signee Mike Gillislee dominated in back-to-back limited-role seasons with the Bills. While his RB-27 ADP is a reminder that New England backfields are often difficult to predict--and this year's collection is more crowded than usual--there will be enough scoring opportunities to make Gillislee an RB2+ most weeks, assuming he leads the backfield as expected. James White is coming off arguably the greatest performance by a non-starter in Super Bowl history. While that doesn't necessarily supplant his position as a potential split-time passing-down back, his upside is now apparent. If Bill Belichick forces the oft-injured Dion Lewis to take a backseat in the passing game, White will be a bargain at his RB-45 ADP. And the newly acquired Rex Burkhead will try to carve out a role; I don't see him as draftable unless there's a serious depth chart shake-up.
The Patriots traded for Brandin Cooks in March because, well, who wouldn't want to add a 23-year-old top 10 WR to a stacked lineup? Cooks will compete for looks with a lot of impressive teammates, but that shouldn't deter you from drafting him as a top 12-16 WR. His floor is huge, and his ceiling approaches the top 5 if things break right. Julian Edelman was his reliable top 25 self last year, though he's being overdrafted at his WR-22 ADP. I'd rather snag Chris Hogan (unranked -- WR ADP outside the top 70) with my final pick than reach for Edelman at his current price. In 15 regular season and three playoff games last year, Hogan collected over 1,000 yards and six TDs. Assuming he wins the #3 wideout role, he should be a top 45-50 wideout.
No Rob Gronkowski? No problem. New England can win without him, and that's even more true this year. The NFL's most uncoverable tight end enters his eighth season as the nearly universal #1 TE and, on average, a second round draft selection. A couple years ago on this blog, a few of us got into a debate about whether Gronk should be a first rounder. I came down on the "no" side--that someone with his excessive injury history was too big of a risk to draft that early. He's now missed 24 of 80 regular season games dating back to 2012. That's 30%. That's a crapload. And it's not as if he can wipe the slate clean each offseason. Gronk is one of the greatest to ever play his position, and he's also overpriced given his likelihood of missing 3+ contests. I'm passing on Gronk in the second round. As for Dwayne Allen (TE-22 ADP), he's likely unstartable but obviously needs to be added if/when Gronk goes down.
Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Mike Gillislee earn RB2 production?
2. Will James White lead the way on passing downs?
3. Is Brandin Cooks a WR1?
4. Will Julian Edelman be a top 25 WR?
5. Is Chris Hogan draftable?
Longtime readers know that when it's come to Tom Brady's fantasy prospects, I've been entirely unreliable. More than once I've counted him out, and each time I've looked like an idiot. What's left to be said? Will we ever see "Bad Tom Brady," or will he hang 'em up after winning his sixth Super Bowl, Michael Jordan-style (circa 1998, not the forgettable 2001-2003 seasons)? If you're drafting Brady at his QB-2 ADP, you're drafting a 40-year-old for whom age does not seem to matter, who hasn't missed a game due to injury in nine years, and who's surrounded by more talent than at any time since 2007 (when he made the jump from serviceable fantasy QB to near-elite). It's a great time to be a Brady fan. Not so good for everyone else.
Patriot RBs scored 18 TDs last season, and they all came from LeGarrette Blount. Yet after letting Blount walk, the team won't lose a step at the RB position. Offseason signee Mike Gillislee dominated in back-to-back limited-role seasons with the Bills. While his RB-27 ADP is a reminder that New England backfields are often difficult to predict--and this year's collection is more crowded than usual--there will be enough scoring opportunities to make Gillislee an RB2+ most weeks, assuming he leads the backfield as expected. James White is coming off arguably the greatest performance by a non-starter in Super Bowl history. While that doesn't necessarily supplant his position as a potential split-time passing-down back, his upside is now apparent. If Bill Belichick forces the oft-injured Dion Lewis to take a backseat in the passing game, White will be a bargain at his RB-45 ADP. And the newly acquired Rex Burkhead will try to carve out a role; I don't see him as draftable unless there's a serious depth chart shake-up.
The Patriots traded for Brandin Cooks in March because, well, who wouldn't want to add a 23-year-old top 10 WR to a stacked lineup? Cooks will compete for looks with a lot of impressive teammates, but that shouldn't deter you from drafting him as a top 12-16 WR. His floor is huge, and his ceiling approaches the top 5 if things break right. Julian Edelman was his reliable top 25 self last year, though he's being overdrafted at his WR-22 ADP. I'd rather snag Chris Hogan (unranked -- WR ADP outside the top 70) with my final pick than reach for Edelman at his current price. In 15 regular season and three playoff games last year, Hogan collected over 1,000 yards and six TDs. Assuming he wins the #3 wideout role, he should be a top 45-50 wideout.
No Rob Gronkowski? No problem. New England can win without him, and that's even more true this year. The NFL's most uncoverable tight end enters his eighth season as the nearly universal #1 TE and, on average, a second round draft selection. A couple years ago on this blog, a few of us got into a debate about whether Gronk should be a first rounder. I came down on the "no" side--that someone with his excessive injury history was too big of a risk to draft that early. He's now missed 24 of 80 regular season games dating back to 2012. That's 30%. That's a crapload. And it's not as if he can wipe the slate clean each offseason. Gronk is one of the greatest to ever play his position, and he's also overpriced given his likelihood of missing 3+ contests. I'm passing on Gronk in the second round. As for Dwayne Allen (TE-22 ADP), he's likely unstartable but obviously needs to be added if/when Gronk goes down.