Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Russell Wilson a near-elite QB?
2. Will Eddie Lacy post RB2+ numbers?
3. Can Thomas Rawls or C.J. Prosise be fantasy starters?
4. Is Tyler Lockett a WR4+?
5. Will Jimmy Graham be a top 5 TE?
Russell Wilson has produced QB1 numbers in all five of his NFL seasons. Last year was his most challenging, as a high-ankle sprain, MCL injury, and porous offensive line significantly hampered the All-Pro QB's upside. All three are correctable heading into 2017, meaning there's a decent chance Wilson will return to near-elite status. The biggest question is the o-line, where Seattle invested two draft picks in May, as well as taking a chance on Jacksonville's former #2 overall pick and widely perceived bust Luke Joeckel. If the o-line goes from league-worst to mediocre, Wilson will shine. Right now, though, I'm passing on him at his QB-6 ADP, preferring him to drop to 8 or 9.
After a very promising start to his career (back-to-back 1,400-yard, 11+ TD seasons), Eddie Lacy stumbled due to weight issues in 2015 and a season-ending ankle injury last year. Ironically, he ran quite well during his short-lived 2016 campaign despite never finding the end zone. The Seahawks signed him to a one-year deal that makes him one of the league's 10 highest salaried RBs this year--strange given a now-healthy Thomas Rawls' likely bounce-back potential, as well as C.J. Prosise showing quite well as a rookie. Lacy is overvalued at his RB-25 ADP, and anticipating an RBBC or hot-hand situation, I like Rawls at his RB-49 ADP. Prosise (RB-43 ADP) is a wait-and-see fantasy option, depending on whether you compete in PPR and whether he carves out a significant weekly role in the passing game.
#1 receiver Doug Baldwin proved his 2015 breakout was no fluke, posting a low-end WR1 season and cementing his role as Wilson's favorite target. All signs point to continuing success; at a WR-13 ADP, he's priced comfortably. In an almost mirror image with the Colts' 1-2 WR tandem, health issues prevented Seattle's #2 wideout--Tyler Lockett--from taking his expected leap forward. Lockett played through a PCL injury for much of last season and then broke his leg in Week 16. Naturally, fantasy prognosticators are focused more on his pedestrian stat line (597 receiving yards and two TDs) than on his sizable potential. His WR-68 ADP is nuts, as is the average #60 WR ranking by the 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, where no one places him better than 40th. Lockett is a low-risk target for your draft's very late rounds, offering top 24-32 WR value if he's healthy and starting. The fantasy world's view of him is "group-think" at its worst. Elsewhere, Paul Richardson and the serviceable Jermaine Kearse will battle for the team's #3 WR honors and deep-league bye-week streaming potential.
Last summer, nearly every expert cautioned against drafting Jimmy Graham, who was recovering from one of the most dreaded receiver injuries: a torn patellar tendon. His TE ADP (12) and overall ADP (125) reflected the prevalent worry that Graham might not even make it through the season, and even if he did, he'd be a shell of his former self. I was largely alone in stating very publicly that even Graham at 80% utility would be better than most tight ends, and that he'd amass 750+ yards and 6+ TDs. He ended up posting a 923/6 line while scoring the fourth most TE fantasy points. Now nearly everyone is back on the Jimmy Graham bandwagon, with the 80 experts ranking him (on average) 5th and with fantasy managers drafting him, on average, as the 5th TE off the board. But they're a year too late, and they're about to be wrong again. By his own admission, Graham barely practiced last year in order to remain as fresh as possible for game days. Also, he slowed as the season went on, catching 38 balls for 545 yards in the first half of the season and only 23 for 378 in the second half. An assuredly improved running game and more consistent high-end play from Lockett will push the 30-year-old Graham into a more situational TE1 role, placing him outside the top 7 by the time the dust settles on 2017.