Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Andrew Luck a near-elite QB?
2. Will Frank Gore be an every-week fantasy starter?
3. Is Donte Moncrief a WR3?
4. Who will win the #3 WR job?
5. Is Jack Doyle a TE1?
Andrew Luck is one of those players whose reputation exceeds his production level. A can't-miss prospect and the #1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, Luck has had two terrific seasons, one solid season, one less-than-solid season (in fairness, his rookie year), and an injury-plagued 2015 campaign that was headed toward merely a "solid" output. Now he's recovering from shoulder surgery, which has the potential to hinder him heading into Week 1. To be clear, Luck has extraordinary upside; he is and will continue to be a no-brainer fantasy commodity. But I prefer him as a wait-and-see top 7-10 QB, not at his current QB-4 ADP and #4 average QB ranking among 74 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts.
The Colts' backfield is relatively thin when you get beyond the 34-year-old Frank Gore, who's proven me wrong many times these past few seasons. He's one of a handful of NFL greats who've continued to play at high levels when nearly every other positional player their age has long since retired. Gore presents a buying opportunity for those willing to bet on a 12th straight 249+ touch campaign. Even if he plays only 12 games at last year's level, he'll earn his RB-29 ADP and then some. But the big question is whether his back-to-back sub-4.0 YPC seasons are a sign of a more severe slowdown--and whether that will open the door for one of two handcuffs. The first option is former Seahawk and Cowboy Robert Turbin, whose first year in Indy looked better on paper (eight TDs on 73 touches) than in reality (a weak 3.5 YPC). The second option is the Colts' 2017 fourth-round draft pick Marlon Mack. Mack's RB-55 ADP is ahead of Turbin's, and it will get sharply better if the rookie shows well in August. However, if Mack isn't NFL-ready, the off-the-radar Turbin will be a popular RB handcuff out of the gate.
T.Y. Hilton is coming off a career year and should be drafted within the first 20 overall picks. As long as Luck is on the field, Hilton will be his #1 receiver. #2 wideout Donte Moncrief could go either way, though I'm on the bullish side. Owning a WR-32 ADP, the fourth-year player was supposed to take another leap in 2016, but injuries limited him to nine games--and who knows how healthy he was in several of those. I'm pegging him at 900+/7+, making him a low-end WR2 and a must-draft guy when 22-26 WRs are off the board. Phillip Dorsett was a bust while Moncrief was sidelined, so Indy brought in Kamar Aiken. Not exactly a long-term solution, so the team might look to second-year guy Chester Rogers. None of these receivers are being drafted in the top 70 at their position, and one of them will win the #3 job. Whoever does will be worth a late-round dart throw.
When fourth-year tight end Jack Doyle snagged two scores on three receptions in Week 1 last year, I called it a fluke. He went on to score 6+ fantasy points five more times, culminating in low-end TE1 production and making me look partially stupid, which I accept. He also caught 59 of 75 targets and developed a very strong rapport with Luck. So what's not to like? Entering 2017, the TE-13 ADP Doyle (and 13th ranked TE among the 74 fantasy experts) has one of the lowest ceilings of any top 16 TE. A big reason is the likely growth of the far more athletic Erik Swoope, who last season averaged 9.2 yards after the catch (compared to Doyle's 4.0). Don't waste a draft pick on a TD-dependent TE like Doyle who, at best, will score 3-6 points most weeks. Instead, use that pick on a higher-upside player and then take a chance on a boom-bust TE in the final round. On balance, you'll come out ahead.