Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matt Ryan an elite QB?
2. Will Devonta Freeman post RB1 numbers?
3. Is Tevin Coleman an RB2/3?
4. Is Taylor Gabriel a WR4+?
5. Can Austin Hooper be a starting fantasy TE?
Coming off arguably the most devastating Super Bowl defeat ever--and possibly the most devastating any team will endure in our lifetimes--the Falcons will attempt to regroup and make another run at its first title. It all starts with the 32-year-old Matt Ryan, who scored the second most QB fantasy points despite throwing his fewest number of passes since 2009. After a player--particularly someone in his prime--completes a career year, it's incredibly important to assess whether this is his new norm. Long a reliable bet for 4,000+ yards, is Ryan--who's exceeded 30 passing TDs only twice in nine seasons--now a reliable bet to pass that mark for a third time in 2017? Since the offense has remained essentially intact, I believe the answer is yes, making Ryan a top 4-6 QB.
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form the NFL's best 1-2 backfield punch, combining for nearly 2,500 total yards and 24 TDs last year. Fantasy managers drafting Freeman would be wise to snag Coleman around the 45th-55th pick. If both guys play all 16 games, you're left with a mid-range RB1 and an RB2/3. If either guy gets hurt, you'll potentially have an elite RB1. Coleman's current ADP is RB-29 and 67 overall, so there's plenty of upside to exploit. The same was true last year, when I pushed readers to draft him as a top 30 RB when his ADP was RB-43. A key to winning is creating as many opportunities as possible to secure potentially elite talent. Given how frequently injuries and demotions wreak havoc on fantasy RBs, Coleman has about a 25%-30% chance of being an elite talent in your fantasy playoffs.
Julio Jones needs no introduction. His yardage alone makes him elite. If this season his TDs tick upward where they belong (instead of the 6-8-6 totals he's endured the past three seasons), he'll enjoy one of the greatest WR seasons in NFL history. Elsewhere, since dropping 9% of his targets in 2014, Mohamed Sanu has only one drop in his last 130 targets. But he produced only WR5/6 numbers, as his upside was capped by the midseason ascension of Taylor Gabriel. Among these two, Gabriel is an incredible buy, owning an RB-54 ADP and ranked, on average, as only the 68th best WR among Fantasy Pros' compendium of 75 experts. Keep in mind Gabriel did almost nothing until Week 8, was on the field on only 51% of pass plays, and in spite of that was a top 50 WR scorer across 16 games. He's a sure-fire top 45 WR with upside.
Second-year TE Austin Hooper need not worry about sharing the load with released veteran Jacob Tamme. And he doesn't have to be concerned with Levine Toilolo, who's more valuable on the field than he is on the stat sheet. Hooper is one of many seemingly undraftable TEs with a great shot at fantasy relevance. His TE-20 ADP and #21 average expert ranking should not deter you. Minimally I'm eyeing a 550/5 line, which would place him inside the top 14.