Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Ben Roethlisberger a QB1?
2. Will Le'Veon Bell be a top 3 RB?
3. Is Antonio Brown fantasy's #1 WR?
4. Can Martavis Bryant post WR3+ numbers?
5. Who will win the slot battle between Eli Rogers and JuJu Smith-Schuster?
Aside from a 5-11 1988 campaign, Pittsburgh has at least six wins every season since 1971 and have been .500 or better in 13 straight--coincidentally beginning with Ben Roethlisberger's 2004 rookie year. That Big Ben was allegedly strongly weighing retirement this offseason should cause some pause for anyone considering drafting a Steeler. We've seen what happens to Antonio Brown and the rest of the receiver corps when a replacement QB takes the helm. And there have been many replacements over the years; Ben has missed time in 10 of his 13 seasons. At his best, you're looking at a top 6 QB. At his worst, you're looking at 12 starts and the 15th-20th most QB fantasy points. His QB-9 ADP assumes a return to something close to his 2014 career highs, which earned him the fifth most QB fantasy points. I think top 10-13 numbers are more realistic, though a top 6 finish is increasingly possible each week Le'Veon Bell, Brown, and Martavis Bryant are neither hurt nor suspended.
Speaking of Bell, he and the Steelers have only a few days to work out a long-term contract. Despite having the tools to be a perennial elite running back, in four seasons Bell has missed 12 games due to injury and five for suspensions. You almost have to draft him at or near his RB-2 ADP, yet given his track record, Bell is more likely than not to disappoint. The question is how much. 12 games for Bell are better than 16 games for most starting RBs, so fantasy managers must hope he can simply stay on the field. His handcuff the past two seasons was DeAngelo Williams, the 32/33-year-old who proved--particularly in 2015--that he could still play at a very high level. With Williams in forced retirement, this year's backup role is up for grabs--and that's not a good thing, as the steep talent drop-off behind Big Ben is similar to that behind Bell. Pittsburgh's biggest hope is that 2017 third-round draft pick James Conner quickly becomes NFL ready. The rookie should be on all radars if he shows well in August.
If Antonio Brown's 2013-2016 yardage is replicated in 2017-2020, he'll be squarely inside the top 20 all-time at the age of 32, with a good chance to move into second place by age 35. Simply put, we're witnessing one of the greatest receivers of the decade as he makes a play for becoming one of the greatest receivers ever. Recently extended through 2021 as the league's highest-paid receiver, Brown was the #1 fantasy wideout in 2014 and 2015 and #2 last year (though he probably would have been #1 if he hadn't sat one game). Nothing else needs to be said on that subject. Across the hash marks things get a lot more interesting, as Martavis Bryant returns from a year-long suspension to reclaim his starting job. How good is Bryant? His 10-game 2014 rookie production--when projected out over 16 games--would have placed him 13th among all fantasy WRs. His 11-game output in 2015 would have, across 16 games, moved him into 9th place among fantasy WRs. The impact to Big Ben these past three years has been tangible: the QB averages 336 passing yards and 2.2 passing TDs when Bryant plays and 275/1.8 when he doesn't. Bryant is a WR2/3 and has top 10-12 upside if Pittsburgh's offense clicks like it did in 2014. Elsewhere, Eli Rogers and rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster will compete for slot duties, with this year's #62 overall pick offering higher upside. No expert ranks Smith-Schuster better than #66, while his average ranking is 89th--both considerably worse than Rogers (59/78). Smith-Schuster is one of several guys I'd target with a final pick, as he could be a WR4/5 if he wins the #3 job.
Ladarius Green was Pittsburgh's prized acquisition Last offseason--a $20 million upgrade over the reliable (and retiring) Heath Miller. But concussion challenges doomed Green's season and might end up derailing his career. This year starting TE duties will fall to either Jesse James or Xavier Grimble. If there's a clear-cut winner out of camp, I'll like that guy's top 16-18 potential. But Pittsburgh is still on the lookout for a new franchise tight end.