Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Dak Prescott a top 6 QB?
2. Is Ezekiel Elliott an elite RB?
3. Will Dez Bryant return to near-elite WR status?
4. Will Cole Beasley be a near-weekly starter?
5. Is Jason Witten draftable?
The Cowboys are coming off their third 13+ win season in the franchise's 57-year existence. But just like their last one 10 years ago, the year ended in a Divisional Round upset. The team returns in 2017 with a good shot of reaching the NFC title game, armed with one of the NFL's best young QB-RB tandems. Last summer I thought very little of Dak Prescott, chalking up his terrific preseason numbers (5/0 TD/INT ratio and a 78% completion rate) as irrelevant, and that it didn't matter because Tony Romo was healthy. Then Dallas revealed that Romo had a broken bone in his back. Yet I still wasn't on the Prescott bandwagon. Stupid me. Prescott enters 2017 with a QB-10 ADP, which is not quite aggressive enough for a guy with all the tools to be a perennial QB1, particularly if Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant stay healthy
Speaking of shortsightedness, I also missed on Elliott, who was only the 13th ranked RB on my draft board last year compared to an RB-4 ADP. He ended up scoring the second most RB fantasy points and is primed to dominate for years to come--as long as he remains on the field. 2017's widely viewed third-ranked fantasy RB has two yellow flags that every fantasy manager needs to heed. First, he rushed 322 times last year, which is a heavy workload by any standard. Of the four other 21-year-old RBs who have earned a similar number of carries, their following season (1) Marshall Faulk's YPC turned out to be the second worst of his career, (2) Jerome Bettis's YPC turned out to be the worst of his career, and (3) Jamal Lewis tore up his knee and was lost for the year. Only Edgerrin James maintained his productivity (though he missed most of the season after that). In fact, a majority of seemingly can't-miss second-year RBs coming off comparably large workloads either missed most of the following year's contests or noticeably regressed. The second flag concerns the NFL's domestic violence probe. We know two things: (1) he remains innocent unless proven otherwise, and (2) the NFL hasn't completed its year-long investigation. The NFL needs to get this right and has been in no rush to judge either way. That means this cloud could hang over Elliott into another season. While the variables to contend with here are numerous and highly impactful, I'm viewing Elliott as a top 6 RB with #1 upside and an eight-game-season downside (in other words, due to injuries and/or a suspension if merited). Because of these risks, he's not in my top 3.
A top 5 wideout from 2012 to 2014, Dez Bryant has missed 10 games the past two years and has played hurt in many more. That's why his WR ADP is 9, and why the 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him, on average, as a back-end WR1, with no one ranking him higher than 5th. He's the #4 WR on my draft board. In March the Cowboys inked a surprising four-year deal with his underperforming teammate, Terrance Williams. Despite never missing an NFL game in four NFL seasons, Williams has stagnated since his mildly impressive rookie campaign. Once again he's looking like a WR6. Any shot Williams had at a career year was stymied by the sudden rise of Cole Beasley, last season's 39th highest scoring fantasy WR. But Beasley is facing two challenges: ongoing hamstring tendinitis that started Week 10 last season, and the drafting of Ryan Switzer, who's built like Beasley and might be forced into action if the veteran's injury lingers. On the bright side, a healthy Beasley would trample all preseason projections; his WR ADP is 63, while the 70 fantasy experts peg him at 69th (with a high of 49th). Through eight games last year, Beasley's stat line was 499/4--which put him on pace for top 12-14 WR numbers. Granted, Dez missed three of those games, but it's still an incredible output for a virtually undrafted fantasy player. Starting when the tendinitis hit in game #9, Beasley produced a 334/1 line in his final eight games. So to repeat: if Beasley is declared 100% healthy before the start of this season, he'll be the ultimate bargain at his current value. If you're drafting in the coming weeks and aren't sure how this will all shake out, take him early anyway (the 45th-50th WR off the board) for a great shot at a steal.
As the historically reliable Jason Witten nears the end of his fantasy usefulness, don't waste a draft pick on a TE who realistically won't see top 10 production. While Dallas just added four years to his contract, it's seen more as a move to reallocate cap space, as none of the new money is guaranteed. The fact is, Witten exceeded 66 yards only once last year and is no longer a weekly or even semi-weekly TE1. Use your 12th round pick on an RB or WR and grab one of several under-the-radar, higher upside TEs later.