Last year, more than 150 of you signed up for my Top 300 Preseason Rankings, updated each week and distributed via e-mail. The rankings include each player's actual average draft position (eternal thanks to Joe Gross for figuring out how to do this) and color-coated tiers. I use it each year when drafting, helping me spot bargains in real time without the stress of digging through notes: everything is right there in front of me.
Later today, everyone who's signed up for this summer's rankings will receive the first of what will be about 10-12 installments right up until Week 1. To sign up, enter your name in the big blue box on http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/. Because this page is free, I ask for any donation that makes sense to you, as much or as little as you see fit.
And with that, let's get back to "32 Teams in 32 Days."
1. Which QB will win the starting job, and does it matter?
2. Is C.J. Anderson an RB2/3?
3. Will Jamaal Charles remain healthy for at least a majority of the season?
4. Is Demaryius Thomas a WR2?
5. Is Emmanuel Sanders a WR2?
For a third straight preseason, Denver is staring at a promising running game, an elite DST, and a bottom-barrel collection of QBs. If a typically top 12-16 QB like Eli Manning had been at the helm all this time, I believe the Broncos would be three-time Super Bowl champs. But what-ifs aside, a glass-half-full perspective gives Trevor Siemen credit for limiting turnovers and playing competently enough to help keep his team in the playoff hunt for most of the season. Meanwhile, 2016 first rounder Paxton Lynch still has the potential to become a franchise QB. Are you buying any of this? I'm not. Siemian's two primary receivers are chronic 1,000+ yard producers; Jared Goff probably could have been just as successful if he'd been running this offense. The 68 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros list Siemian, on average, as their 26th ranked QB. When this season ends, last year's starter will be this year's bench fodder; Paxton Lynch (ranked 36th) will start more games--possibly as soon as Week 1--and will offer streaming two-QB-league value for the proverbial cost of a penny.
Denver's backfield is a full-on wait-and-see situation. C.J. Anderson is the highest rank option with an RB-23 ADP. He was actually on pace for low-end RB1 production before getting hurt last season. But he'll disappoint a lot of fantasy managers this year. Coach Vance Joseph made his intentions clear a couple of months ago: "You need two or three guys that can carry the load. It is no longer a one-guy position." Avoid picking Anderson in the top 30 unless Jamaal Charles gets hurt this summer, which is entirely possible. Owning an RB-7 ADP last summer, long-time readers of this blog know that Charles was one of my "stay away at all costs" RBs for a second consecutive preseason. This time around I'm not knocking JC, as most experts and managers--based on average draft position--view him as unrosterable. As a result, I like the bargain potential of a mostly ignored running back whose career 5.5 YPC places him #2 at his position (behind Marion Motley, for all you Motley fans out there). To be clear, I'm not saying draft Charles in the middle rounds; I am saying a healthy Charles will have a sizable role. Given the higher-than-normal injury potential of both Anderson and Charles, the #3 RB job is pretty important. Second-year-pro Devontae Booker wilted after taking over the starting job midseason, while rookie De'Angelo Henderson should hang around all year. The odds are better than 70/30 that one of these guys will ascend to handcuff status in 2017.
I thought Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders would seriously underperform last season. Instead, they were the 19th and 21st highest scoring WRs, respectively. They were hindered only by scoring opportunities in a relatively conservative offense. This year I believe Thomas (WR-15 ADP) is overvalued, as insufficient QB talent won't make Thomas any more effective. Sanders and his WR-29 ADP are in the same boat. This tandem has dominated Denver's aerial attack for three straight years. Would-be contributors like Cody Latimer, Jordan Norwood, and Bennie Fowler have never cracked the surface of fantasy relevancy. This summer it's worth keeping tabs on rookie Carlos Henderson. The 111th ranked WR according to 25 Fantasy Pros experts, Henderson will merit top 60 consideration if he earns the #3 job--in other words, a deep-league stash in case Thomas or Sanders gets hurt.
Finally, Virgil Green wouldn't be a top 24 TE even if he played every snap. A.J. Derby has more upside, but will be hampered by Denver's ineffective QB play. And touted rookie Jake Butt is recovering from an ACL tear. Given the team's current make-up, no tight end is fantasy startable.
Later today, everyone who's signed up for this summer's rankings will receive the first of what will be about 10-12 installments right up until Week 1. To sign up, enter your name in the big blue box on http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/. Because this page is free, I ask for any donation that makes sense to you, as much or as little as you see fit.
And with that, let's get back to "32 Teams in 32 Days."
Five Biggest Questions
1. Which QB will win the starting job, and does it matter?
2. Is C.J. Anderson an RB2/3?
3. Will Jamaal Charles remain healthy for at least a majority of the season?
4. Is Demaryius Thomas a WR2?
5. Is Emmanuel Sanders a WR2?
For a third straight preseason, Denver is staring at a promising running game, an elite DST, and a bottom-barrel collection of QBs. If a typically top 12-16 QB like Eli Manning had been at the helm all this time, I believe the Broncos would be three-time Super Bowl champs. But what-ifs aside, a glass-half-full perspective gives Trevor Siemen credit for limiting turnovers and playing competently enough to help keep his team in the playoff hunt for most of the season. Meanwhile, 2016 first rounder Paxton Lynch still has the potential to become a franchise QB. Are you buying any of this? I'm not. Siemian's two primary receivers are chronic 1,000+ yard producers; Jared Goff probably could have been just as successful if he'd been running this offense. The 68 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros list Siemian, on average, as their 26th ranked QB. When this season ends, last year's starter will be this year's bench fodder; Paxton Lynch (ranked 36th) will start more games--possibly as soon as Week 1--and will offer streaming two-QB-league value for the proverbial cost of a penny.
Denver's backfield is a full-on wait-and-see situation. C.J. Anderson is the highest rank option with an RB-23 ADP. He was actually on pace for low-end RB1 production before getting hurt last season. But he'll disappoint a lot of fantasy managers this year. Coach Vance Joseph made his intentions clear a couple of months ago: "You need two or three guys that can carry the load. It is no longer a one-guy position." Avoid picking Anderson in the top 30 unless Jamaal Charles gets hurt this summer, which is entirely possible. Owning an RB-7 ADP last summer, long-time readers of this blog know that Charles was one of my "stay away at all costs" RBs for a second consecutive preseason. This time around I'm not knocking JC, as most experts and managers--based on average draft position--view him as unrosterable. As a result, I like the bargain potential of a mostly ignored running back whose career 5.5 YPC places him #2 at his position (behind Marion Motley, for all you Motley fans out there). To be clear, I'm not saying draft Charles in the middle rounds; I am saying a healthy Charles will have a sizable role. Given the higher-than-normal injury potential of both Anderson and Charles, the #3 RB job is pretty important. Second-year-pro Devontae Booker wilted after taking over the starting job midseason, while rookie De'Angelo Henderson should hang around all year. The odds are better than 70/30 that one of these guys will ascend to handcuff status in 2017.
I thought Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders would seriously underperform last season. Instead, they were the 19th and 21st highest scoring WRs, respectively. They were hindered only by scoring opportunities in a relatively conservative offense. This year I believe Thomas (WR-15 ADP) is overvalued, as insufficient QB talent won't make Thomas any more effective. Sanders and his WR-29 ADP are in the same boat. This tandem has dominated Denver's aerial attack for three straight years. Would-be contributors like Cody Latimer, Jordan Norwood, and Bennie Fowler have never cracked the surface of fantasy relevancy. This summer it's worth keeping tabs on rookie Carlos Henderson. The 111th ranked WR according to 25 Fantasy Pros experts, Henderson will merit top 60 consideration if he earns the #3 job--in other words, a deep-league stash in case Thomas or Sanders gets hurt.
Finally, Virgil Green wouldn't be a top 24 TE even if he played every snap. A.J. Derby has more upside, but will be hampered by Denver's ineffective QB play. And touted rookie Jake Butt is recovering from an ACL tear. Given the team's current make-up, no tight end is fantasy startable.