Five Biggest Questions
1. Should Aaron Rodgers be the first QB off the board?
2. Is Ty Montgomery an RB2?
3. Is Davante Adams a WR2?
4. Is Randall Cobb draftable?
5. Will Martellus Bennett post TE1 numbers?
They don't get much more reliable than Aaron Rodgers, who's been a top 2 fantasy QB in seven of the past nine years, including a first place finish in 2016. Barring an injury, it's almost inconceivable to draft him anywhere other than #1 at his position.
At running back, Eddie Lacy and James Starks are gone. Converted RB Ty Montgomery is coming off a 5.9 YPC season on 77 carries and will aim to lead a backfield comprised of four rookies: Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, Devante Mays, and William Stanback. Green Bay is hoping to strike gold (or at least copper) on one of these newcomers, as no one knows whether Montgomery is capable of shouldering a full load. That uncertainty means I'm not liking Montgomery's RB-19 ADP. If you're looking for a sleeper, draft Aaron Jones late if you have the bench space. As many people on this site know, RB handcuff hoarding is one of my favorite fantasy pastimes. Among 43 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, Jones is the 87th ranked RB. He's currently in my top 60 and will push into the top 45-50 if he shows well in August.
There weren't many more compelling 2016 NFL storylines than Jordy Nelson's; the 31-year-old scored the second-most WR fantasy points after missing all of 2015 with a torn ACL. The near-elite WR has absolutely dominated in his last four healthy seasons. Meanwhile, Davante Adams spent two seasons trying to live up to his sky-high potential--then put it all together last year, posting fantasy's seventh most WR points. Expect modest regression into the WR2 realm. Is Randall Cobb draftable? He's the toughest Packer to figure out. Projected over 16 games, his 2016 campaign wasn't much worse than his 2015 output. What's changed is Adams leapfrogging over him, as well as a TE upgrade. Cobb is overvalued at his WR-40 ADP--not that he couldn't achieve that level, but rather he's an unnecessarily risky pick when plenty of comparable-upside receivers will be available much later in your draft. Finally, keep an eye on rookies Malachi Dupre and DeAngelo Yancey; one of them will become a deep-league streaming option if Jordy, Adams, or Cobb gets hurt.
The Packers' offseason addition of Martellus Bennett gives Rodgers yet another resource at his disposal. In his three final NFL seasons, former Green Bay TE Jermichael Finley averaged 5.6 targets per game--in other words, approaching 90 in a 16-game season. A healthy Bennett should garner similar attention, giving him solid TE1 potential.