Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Sam Bradford draftable in two-QB leagues?
2. Will Dalvin Cook or Latavius Murray be more productive?
3. Can Stefon Diggs be a WR2?
4. Is Adam Thielan draftable?
5. Is Kyle Rudolph a top 8 TE?
Last summer's Vikings were led by Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson. A lot changed between late August and mid-September, and the remnants of both players' season-ending injuries live on today. Minnesota burned a first round draft pick on Sam Bradford, whose record-breaking 71.6 completion percentage could not mask the limitations of this formerly-highly-touted-QB-turned-dink-passer. Bradford essentially played like a bottom-third fantasy quarterback. But as barely middling as he was, there's a small ray of hope heading into 2017: his positional ADP is outside the top 24, while his offensive weapons have improved and/or are healthier. That's a great combination if you're looking for a two-QB-league bargain or even a bye-week streamer. Essentially, I'd be down on Bradford if everyone else weren't even more down on him. Among 77 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros, none rank him better than 20th and most place him 25th or worse. With a healthy Stefon Diggs, rising Laquon Treadwell, and huge RB upgrades, I'd feel comfortable taking Bradford 20th. And while there's talk that Bridgewater could return this season, don't assume he'd supplant a Bradford; before Bridgewater suffered his horrible preseason injury, many people--me included--wondered aloud if he would ever thrive in the NFL. Bradford at his best is better than Bridgewater--at least at this stage of his career development--at his best.
The running back situation will wreak some havoc during fantasy drafts. Rookie Dalvin Cook is the favorite to earn the most carries. Recent free agent signee Latavius Murray--coming off a low-end RB1 fantasy season--could sneak into the top-dog conversation if Cook stumbles or if Murray shines. And despite his off 2016 season, Jerick McKinnon enters 2017 as the league's best #3 RB, for whatever that's worth. I see a potential hot-hand situation here between Cook and Murray, making the latter's RB-39 ADP a little more appealing than the former's RB-22 ADP. In August we'll have a better sense whether it's Cook's job to lose for the foreseeable future.
After Stefon Diggs' blistering start last season (285 yards and a TD in the first two games), I wrote that Diggs had accounted for nearly 49% of the Vikes' total offensive yards. "By comparison, AP accounted for about 29% of Minnesota’s offensive yards last season. Think about that, and then wonder why anyone would believe Diggs’ dominance will continue. Sell high and don’t look back." (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/09/the-tuesday-trader-qbs-and-wrs-to-target.html). Groin and knee ailments hindered Diggs for much of the season, so to be clear, I can't pat myself on the back too much over this prediction. Diggs very well could have continued on his WR2 trajectory if the injury gods had smiled upon him. But the central point is worth reinforcing: such elite production levels are unsustainable. Calvin Johnson's record-breaking 1,964 receiving yards in 2012 were only 29% of the Lions' offensive yardage. Diggs was going to crash back to earth regardless of injuries. This year there's bargain potential, as his WR ADP is 33. I'm buying at that price with the expectation that his health will largely hold up. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen single-handedly won some fantasy managers their fantasy titles, compiling 206 yards and two TDs in Week 16, giving him top 30 wideout production on the season. He's certainly worth a flyer at his WR-48 ADP, assuming he's starting Week 1. 2016 first rounder Laquon Treadwell has an outside chance of besting Thielen this season; the second-year pro is the 88th ranked WR among the 77 experts. Keep in mind he had a rash of injuries last year and arguably has a higher upside than Thielen does. I'm watching these two closely in camp.
Kyle Rudolph made me look stupid last season, as I didn't think he was draftable after posting four pedestrian stat lines in five NFL seasons. But Bradford's controlled passing attack suited Rudolph well, as the tight end amassed the third most TE fantasy points. What will he do for an encore? Not as much. Owning a TE-8 ADP, Rudolph will be lucky to crack the top 10 in a markedly better offense. Rudolph benefited from a continually ailing Diggs and Treadwell and an anemic rushing attack. All of that should change in 2017, forcing Rudolph back into the top 12-14 TE range.