Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Philip Rivers a QB1?
2. Will Melvin Gordon be a top 5 RB?
3. Is Keenan Allen worth drafting in spite of injury history?
4. Will Mike Williams be the team's second-highest-scoring receiver?
5. Is Hunter Henry a TE1?
Philip Rivers is either the best mediocre fantasy QB or the worst good fantasy QB. Or maybe both. He rarely finishes among the top 10 at his position, though he often flirts with QB1 numbers for good chunks of each season. It's not entirely his fault: although Rivers hasn't missed a game in 11 seasons, his teammates are far more susceptible to injury--make that season-ending injuries. One might wonder what Rivers could do with a full complement of talented and healthy receivers. We're about to find out. Rivers will be a top-half QB and will be a QB1 if his key targets remain healthy.
One of my final predictions last preseason was that Melvin Gordon (RB-23 ADP) would be a top 16 RB. He did even better than that, asserting himself as a near-elite RB with no NFL-ready starter playing behind him. No one will sleep on Gordon this season, as his RB-6 ADP reflects a first-round selection. There are seven or eight nearly certifiable RB1s (assuming no injuries) in this year's draft, and Gordon is one of them.
How do you value a guy who's suffered two consecutive season-ending injuries--one in Week 8 and the other in Week 1? Where is the line between drafting for upside and drafting for reliability? I saw huge things for Keenan Allen heading into 2015, predicting the 13th best WR numbers despite expert sites like CBS Sports and Yahoo! Sports not even placing him in the top 20. He was on pace for top 5 production that season and certainly could have made waves in 2016. Now we're left with a 25-year-old--someone who should still be ascending--trying to reclaim the promise of his breakout 2013 rookie season. I'm rooting for Allen, because dammit he deserves it. And I'll take him if 20-22 WRs go off the board. If you're looking for value, keep rookie and #7 overall draft pick Mike Williams on your radar. His WR-48 ADP will climb dramatically if his herniated disk injury subsides. I had severe lower back problems 10 years ago and had two epidurals in the span of a few months to ease the pain and pave the way for stretching and strengthening exercises. It took about 5-7 years before I could go to sleep on my back and not feel discomfort. Of course, Williams has all of modern medicine at his disposal and could surprise everyone if he's ready to roll Week 1. But if he's out or hampered, Tyrell Williams (WR-55 ADP) should benefit the most. Williams made the most of his "next man up" opportunity last year, posting the 13th most WR fantasy points due to Allen and Stevie Johnson getting knocked out early. Travis Benjamin, on the other hand, couldn't build on his 2015 breakout season in Cleveland; both he and Dontrelle Inman are fantasy irrelevant unless multiple injuries strike again.
Each of the last two summers I've written that Antonio Gates is overvalued. Each time I've been wrong. This year I'll take it a step further: Gates is no longer draftable. The Hunter Henry era has begun. This is not a bold prediction: Henry is widely expected to be the Chargers' lead tight end. The question is how much of an impact he can make with Gordon, Allen, M. Williams, and potentially T. Williams heavily involved. And Gates isn't retiring, which means even fewer red-zone targets for Henry, whose state line benefited largely from eight TDs on only 36 receptions. I love Henry in dynasty leagues, as Gates will be a free agent next offseason and probably won't be back. But I'm cautious about Henry's TE-10 ADP. In 2016, the top 18 fantasy TEs earned 73+ looks. I want to know Henry can get at least five targets a game before I'm buying his #10 ranking.