Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Eli Manning rebound from last season's letdown?
2. Is Paul Perkins an RB2+?
3. Will Brandon Marshall be a WR3+?
4. Can Sterling Shepard, at minimum, replicate his 2016 production?
5. Is Evan Engram draftable?
Last summer I took a lot of heat for proclaiming Eli Manning was vastly overrated. The 16th ranked QB on my draft board (which I shared weekly with the 150+ of you who signed up) had an average draft position of 9, while 84 of 90 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts ranked him in the top 12. He finished the year with the 22nd most fantasy points--in other words, fantasy irrelevant. But as happens far too often in this industry, the fantasy pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction. This preseason his QB ADP is 16, while the 76 experts who have submitted their rankings place him, on average, 17th--with only one person (CBS Sports' Dave Richard) ranking him as high as 12th. So what changed? Most of the fantasy universe have now decided that Eli's bust-out 2015 season was a fluke and his 2016 is the new norm. The problem with that thinking is that it's overly simplistic and largely wrong. Eli is neither as great as we saw in 2015, nor as bad as we saw last year. Historically he has performed as a QB2 with occasional upside. With Eli you almost always get a nice chunk of yardage, an acceptable number of TDs, and a few too many turnovers. External factors--like quantity of quality receivers, running game efficiency, and offensive game plan--create slight variances that might push Eli into the top 14 or outside the top 20. It's not very scientific, yet it's so often misunderstood. With that in mind, the Giants' longtime franchise QB is surrounded by personnel who can help propel him into the top 14. He'll be in the top 10-12 on my draft board, making him an easily attainable bargain.
I wrongly foresaw bigger numbers last year for rookie Paul Perkins. I'm still not sure why the Giants kept riding the aged Rashad Jennings (3.3 YPC). This year Perkins is positioned to take over a backfield that hasn't exceed 4.0 YPC since 2012, and that's good news for fantasy managers (who don't have to guess whom to draft) and Eli (who finally has the weapons to lead a more balanced attack). Perkins' soft ADP (RB-33) is largely due to his inexperience and some doubt over whether he can succeed as a 250+ touch back in this league. I'm betting on Perkins at his current price. He'll compete in the passing game with Shane Vereen, who somehow is only 28 years old (I could've sworn he was 30 or 31). Vereen was also underutilized last season and is an incredible buy, with an RB ADP that doesn't even register (out of 71 ranked RBs). He might even become an RB3/4 in PPR; it depends on whether he'll serve as the true passing-down back, or simply split those duties with Perkins. Finally, rookie Wayne Gallman is a wild card; he might not see a snap this season, and he could be thrust immediately into a handcuff role. By the end of August we'll know which is more likely.
Nothing much needs to be said about Odell Beckham, Jr., who's started his career with back-to-back-to-back 1,300+/10+ lines. I might prefer to take him 5th or 6th instead of at his WR-3 ADP, but that's nitpicking. Brandon Marshall is far more Eli's gain than OBJ's loss. Of course, we all remember Marshall's lost 2016 season with the Jets, as he was barely a top 50 wideout. Now forget about it. Marshall should fit in very well as the Giants' #2 receiver, racking up enough yards and TDs to warrant WR3 status. What's stopping him from being a WR2? Second-year future phenom Sterling Shepard, who's too talented to keep off the field. Although the Giants have talked about using more two-TE sets, I think when it's all said and done, Shepard (a ridiculous WR-64 ADP) will reach 800 yards and pick up 4-5 scores, making him a WR4 and a must-add late in drafts.
Not enough is known yet about TE Evan Engram, who the Giants grabbed with the 23rd overall pick in this year's draft. Will he play more of a blocking role his rookie year, deferring targets to the "Big 3" of OBJ, Marshall, and Shepard? Will he be an offensive threat out of the gate? I want to see how he operates in practice and preseason games before saying more. For now, he's a speculative late-round add on a team that will score more than most people realize.