Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Joe Flacco a top 20 QB?
2. Who will be the team's most productive RB?
3. Will Jeremy Maclin rebound from last season?
4. Can Mike Wallace replicate his 2016 numbers?
5. Who will win the TE battle, and will it matter?
For only the second time in the past nine seasons, the AFC North earned only one playoff berth in 2016. The retooled Ravens could help make that two out of 10. While I've frequently expressed shock over the years at Joe Flacco's overratedness in the real and fantasy worlds, objectively he has enough offensive weapons this season to easily outperform his QB-24 ADP. None of the 74 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him higher than 19th, while several place him in the bottom five. "Insanity" is a word I throw around a lot on this page. Coming off a 4,300+ yard campaign and having played all 16 games in eight of nine seasons, Flacco is a highly dependable top 18 QB with top 13-15 upside. While his yardage might settle back into the 3,700-3,900 range, his passing TDs (20 last year) should bounce up to 25-28, making him a nice later-round find in two-QB leagues and a solid streamer in regular leagues.
Baltimore's running game will be more dependable on the field than in fantasy lineups. Terrance West has proven to be a competent part-time RB, and that's about all there is. He'll never be a top 20-caliber fantasy asset, though his RB-51 ADP harshly suggests irrelevancy. I wouldn't go that far. While Kenneth Dixon is suspended in weeks 1-4, West will be a TD-dependent RB3--not a bad late-round grab to tide you over 'til October. Dixon (RB-41 ADP), however, is the superior talent, and should eventually be an every-week RB2/3 in spite of the competition. Meanwhile, Danny Woodhead is the most overrated piece of this backfield puzzle. Owning an RB-32 ADP, the 31-year-old has been knocked out for the season in two of the past three Septembers. Taking him in the middle rounds is a huge risk/reward opportunity that I wouldn't bite on. Keep in mind that two summers ago I repeatedly pushed Woodhead hard on this blog, and he came through with a fantastic 1,091/9 line. But that was a career year. After Week 4, if he's even still healthy, Woodhead won't get enough touches to be a dependable RB3.
The Ravens made a brilliant offseason move by snatching up Jeremy Maclin for next to nothing after the Chiefs inexplicably dumped him. A torn groin allegedly was responsible for the 29-year-old's 2016 disappearing act. Alex Smith's limitations didn't help. Expect, at minimum, 950/5 numbers--a top 32 WR comfortably exceeding his bizarre WR-46 ADP. 29 of the experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him even worse than 46th. Bargains are everywhere, and Maclin is one of the most obvious at his position. Across the field, Mike Wallace was one of my biggest WR steals last preseason, when I wrote that his WR-63 ADP was "simply odd"--a polite way of saying that experts and fantasy managers were completely misunderstanding his expected output. This summer he's once again a bargain, though not as significantly. Owning a WR-45 ADP, Wallace should clear the top 35 and, depending on Breshad Perriman's development, could reach the top 28. Speaking of Perriman, the 2015 first rounder will have to wait at least one more year before cracking the starting lineup. He'll continue to be the fifth or sixth option on offense, making him a bye week streaming option at best.
Dennis Pitta was a terrific story last season. Now with his career effectively over, five--that's right--five tight ends started the summer vying to replace him atop the depth chart. Ben Watson is a big-name veteran, Maxx Williams is a talented 23-year-old whose knee injury might keep him off the field until October, Crockett Gillmore--my bad pick to make some waves last year--can't seem to stay healthy, Nick Boyle is healthy and the least proven, and Darren Waller . . . well, last week he was suspended indefinitely for yet another drug violation. Whoever wins this battle could compete for top 16 TE production, though that assumes he (a) stays healthy, and (b) fends off the competition all season. There's no obvious heir to Pitta, so for now there's no reason to draft any of them.