Happy Fourth of July, everybody. Not even patriotic holidays will keep FF4W from pressing onward. 19 teams down, 13 to go, starting with one of the NFL's most notable franchise busts of 2016 . . .
1. Will Cam Newton return to QB1 status?
2. Is Jonathan Stewart draftable in most leagues?
3. Can Christian McCaffrey take over Carolina's backfield?
4. Will Kelvin Benjamin return to his 2014 rookie form?
5. Could Devin Funchess or Curtis Samuel be fantasy relevant?
Cam Newton went from other-worldly in 2015 to mostly unstartable in 2016, with QB2 numbers stemming from seven games with 13 fantasy points or less. He topped two TDs only three times and was one of the NFL's least accurate QBs, with 21.8% of his passes sailing off target. Entering his age-28 season, and despite coming off rotator cuff surgery, Cam is a prime rebound candidate. His across-the-board career-worst numbers are not the new norm. If I can snag him as the 8th to 10th QB off the board, I'll be very happy.
For a third straight season, Jonathan Stewart was the lead guy in the backfield . . . with dwindling yards per carry each year, culminating in 3.8 YPC last fall. Seemingly chronically hurt (he's missed nine games in the past three years and 26 in the last five), the 30-year-old simply isn't a bankable running back on a team that needs more as Cam is asked to do a bit less. So the Panthers used the eighth overall pick in this year's draft on Christian McCaffrey. While it's too early for me to anticipate how the rookie will operate as part of a potentially three-headed backfield (Cam included), I'm not liking his RB-14 ADP, which assumes an instant-impact quality that doesn't align with Carolina's personnel. Those drafting before August should play this situation very conservatively. Right now McCaffrey is outside my top 20.
I whiffed on Kelvin Benjamin last summer, wrongly assuming he'd build on his rookie numbers (1,008/9). Cam's career-worst performance didn't help, but then again, neither did Benjamin's poor conditioning--a red flag I shared late in the preseason. Heading into this season, the fantasy universe has decided Benjamin is a WR3, with a WR-30 ADP and average #34 WR ranking among 38 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros. I strongly disagree. Last year's 20th highest scoring WR showed us what his pre-prime floor is. His ultimate ceiling resides in the top 6-10. He's a very safe bet for top 24 production and has a good shot of cracking the top 16. Another year removed from knee surgery, the undervalued Benjamin should be targeted in every draft. Meanwhile, Devin Funchess joined the team's regression parade, as the second-year receiver caught more than two balls only once all year. Potentially limiting Funchess's 2017 upside is the arrival of versatile rookie Curtis Samuel. Neither is presently draftable in most leagues, but next month we'll have a better sense where things stand.
Greg Olsen's best three seasons have come in his late 20s and early 30s. Obviously ignore his three-TD total from 2016. Assuming the league's most dependable TE doesn't hold out of camp, he'll deservedly continue to be one of the first three or four tight ends drafted.
Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Cam Newton return to QB1 status?
2. Is Jonathan Stewart draftable in most leagues?
3. Can Christian McCaffrey take over Carolina's backfield?
4. Will Kelvin Benjamin return to his 2014 rookie form?
5. Could Devin Funchess or Curtis Samuel be fantasy relevant?
Cam Newton went from other-worldly in 2015 to mostly unstartable in 2016, with QB2 numbers stemming from seven games with 13 fantasy points or less. He topped two TDs only three times and was one of the NFL's least accurate QBs, with 21.8% of his passes sailing off target. Entering his age-28 season, and despite coming off rotator cuff surgery, Cam is a prime rebound candidate. His across-the-board career-worst numbers are not the new norm. If I can snag him as the 8th to 10th QB off the board, I'll be very happy.
For a third straight season, Jonathan Stewart was the lead guy in the backfield . . . with dwindling yards per carry each year, culminating in 3.8 YPC last fall. Seemingly chronically hurt (he's missed nine games in the past three years and 26 in the last five), the 30-year-old simply isn't a bankable running back on a team that needs more as Cam is asked to do a bit less. So the Panthers used the eighth overall pick in this year's draft on Christian McCaffrey. While it's too early for me to anticipate how the rookie will operate as part of a potentially three-headed backfield (Cam included), I'm not liking his RB-14 ADP, which assumes an instant-impact quality that doesn't align with Carolina's personnel. Those drafting before August should play this situation very conservatively. Right now McCaffrey is outside my top 20.
I whiffed on Kelvin Benjamin last summer, wrongly assuming he'd build on his rookie numbers (1,008/9). Cam's career-worst performance didn't help, but then again, neither did Benjamin's poor conditioning--a red flag I shared late in the preseason. Heading into this season, the fantasy universe has decided Benjamin is a WR3, with a WR-30 ADP and average #34 WR ranking among 38 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros. I strongly disagree. Last year's 20th highest scoring WR showed us what his pre-prime floor is. His ultimate ceiling resides in the top 6-10. He's a very safe bet for top 24 production and has a good shot of cracking the top 16. Another year removed from knee surgery, the undervalued Benjamin should be targeted in every draft. Meanwhile, Devin Funchess joined the team's regression parade, as the second-year receiver caught more than two balls only once all year. Potentially limiting Funchess's 2017 upside is the arrival of versatile rookie Curtis Samuel. Neither is presently draftable in most leagues, but next month we'll have a better sense where things stand.
Greg Olsen's best three seasons have come in his late 20s and early 30s. Obviously ignore his three-TD total from 2016. Assuming the league's most dependable TE doesn't hold out of camp, he'll deservedly continue to be one of the first three or four tight ends drafted.