Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will win the QB starting job, and will it matter?
2. Will DeAndre Hopkins rebound with WR1 production?
3. Is Will Fuller a WR4+?
4. Will Braxton Miller be streamable?
5. Is C.J. Fiedorowicz draftable in deep leagues?
As most of you know from reading this site over the years, I point out times when proven right and am brutally honest when proven wrong. Last summer I wrote, "Incoming starter Brock Osweiler did less with more talent in Denver (although to be fair, he didn’t need to do much) and now joins a team with an elite RB (i.e. I don’t envision Osweiler needing to do much). . . . He’s a backup QB in 12-team, 2-QB leagues." The Texans' signing of the wildly pedestrian Osweiler could set this franchise back at least a couple of seasons. In March they gave Cleveland a better batch of draft picks simply to dump off Osweiler's salary. They then handed Cleveland another enviable draft pick package to trade up to get Deshaun Watson in May. If Watson becomes a mid-range NFL QB in two to three years, the team as currently rostered could contend for an AFC title. But as of now, Tom Savage could be starting Week 1. Whoever starts, the passing game once again will hinder Texans across the board.
After three seasons of eye-opening under-utilization in Miami, Lamar Miller was turned loose in his first season in Houston, carrying the ball 268 times and catching 31 balls in only 14 games. But he didn't score enough (six TDs) to merit his preseason top-5 RB-ADP. Had he played in all 16 games, Miller was on pace for low-end RB1 production. That's where I see him this year: a bell cow whose poor QB situation will keep him in the top 8-12 range. Elsewhere, keep an eye on rookie D'Onta Foreman and second-year back Tyler Ervin, who will be competing with Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt for the coveted handcuff role. Foreman is the guy on people's draft boards, with some experts listing him as an RB4/5. But my money's on the less-heralded Ervin.
If you heeded my repeated warnings last summer (such as https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/752297003732783104), you let someone else draft the ridiculously overvalued DeAndre Hopkins. Inexplicably, he's still getting too much fantasy love, with Fantasy Pros' collection of 39 national experts ranking him 12th on average, while his WR-ADP is 11th. Savage and Watson are not really upgrades over Osweiler. Hopkins will not return to being an every-week starter, at least not this year. Elite QBs can make middling WRs look superhuman, while middling QBs can make elite WRs look merely human. While I think Hopkins will have something to prove this season and should top 100 receptions, his upside is around 1,100/5, and realistically he's looking at 950/5. What too many ignore when it comes to Hopkins is that his breakout 2014 season benefited from playing alongside a talent-diminishing Andre Johnson and catching balls from gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick. In 2015 he was competing for targets with pedestrian wideouts like Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts. Last year and heading into this season, Hopkins must contend with the rising Will Fuller. Fuller is one of fantasy's most underrated WRs: the 65th ranked WR among the 39 experts and with a WR-ADP of 70. Insane. I repeat: i-n-s-a-n-e. No one has all the answers in fantasy football, but when not one expert ranks Fuller better than 51st and most place him in the 60s, there's a prediction gap to be filled. Fuller will be a top 50 WR and is likely to crack the top 40. I will be drafting him late and loving it. Braxton Miller also might be worth a flyer at some point, but as of now the QB situation makes him unstartable.
C.J. Fiedorowicz surprised me and possibly many others in 2016. Discounting his irrelevant first two games (two catches for seven total yards), he enjoyed a 52/552/4 line in 13 games. Assuming he remains atop the depth chart all year, Fiedorowicz will be an occasionally streamable top 20 TE.