Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Ryan Tannehill a top 16 QB?
2. Is Jay Ajayi a near-elite RB?
3. Will Jarvis Landry post WR2+ numbers?
4. Can DeVante Parker build on last season's production?
5. Is Julius Thomas draftable in very deep leagues?
Last summer I went big on Ryan Tannehill, predicting top 12 QB numbers for a guy who, on average, was getting drafted 22nd among QBs. Had he stayed healthy and finished strong, it would have been achievable. But let's face it: I made a bad call. Tannehill had only four games with 19+ fantasy points. There's no way to spin that, no matter how hard I might try. So what's in store for a seemingly mediocre talent signed thru 2020? Is there any possibility he'll climb back into fantasy relevance? Of course. What other team has three talented starting wideouts in their pre-prime (each only 24 years old)? His QB-23 ADP assumes a regression from last year's regression, which is inconceivable. The 40 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros tag him as, on average, the 22nd best fantasy QB. This year I'll almost double-down on last year's prediction. Even a slight uptick in Tannehill's usual production will mean 4,200-4,400 yards and 30 TDs, which would place him in the top 12. Heading into another season in Adam Gase's system, He's a top 16 lock and a likely top 14 performer.
Jay Ajayi wasn't allowed to board the plane to Seattle in last season's opening game. That's how far down the depth chart he had to climb. After his 204-yard rushing performance in Week 6, Ajayi was the unquestioned starter. After his 214-yard effort the following week, he was a fantasy star. In Ajayi the Dolphins have a top 16 RB. As with most RBs, the one question is how heavily he'll be utilized. Starting with his breakout Week 6 performance, Ajayi averaged nearly 21 carries a game. Pro-rated to 333 carries for the season, I don't think that's sustainable in 2017. Only two of the 42 national experts compiled by Fantasy Pros rank him worse than 10th, with most urging readers to draft him fifth to eighth. I'd let an opponent take Ajayi that early. Meanwhile, Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams will battle to be the handcuff. Given the NFL's track record of burning through RBs, figure one of those two guys has a 25%-35% chance of starting a decent chunk of games this year. Of the two, Drake is the one to target in very deep leagues.
For a guy who's posted two straight 1,100-yard seasons and who's still getting better, Jarvis Landry doesn't get enough fantasy love. On average, the 42 aforementioned national experts rank him 23rd this preseason among WRs. Nearly everyone at NFL.com places him in the 30s. Rotoworld's Raymond Summerlin has him at #41. These are not fringe prognosticators. So what do they see? Possibly a pedestrian Tannehill, greater focus on the running game, and too many talented receivers. So my view on Landry as a clear-cut top 24 wideout with top 14-16 upside assumes Tannehill, at minimum, returns to 2014-2015 form. I also view Landry's TD totals (only 13 in 36 career NFL games) as misleading. He should reach 7-9 TDs while clearing 1,000 yards. Teammate DeVante Parker is similarly overlooked, charting at WR-41 ADP and 38th among Fantasy Pros' compiled experts. Kenny Stills apparently isn't draftable, coming in at 73 and 59, respectively. That same Stills narrative was pervasive last summer; I didn't buy it then, and I don't buy it now. He and Parker are bargains at their current prices. Given how little you need to invest for each of them, draft both at their market value and pat yourself on the back. Twice.
Is this the beginning of the end for Julius Thomas? Now on his third team in four seasons, the former TD monster was a shell of his former self in Jacksonville. His TE-15 ADP is a bit too optimistic for a guy who's missed an increasing number of games since 2013 (two, then three, then four, and seven last year). Thomas will be a TD-dependent streamer and, at best, the fifth option on offense.