Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matthew Stafford a QB1?
2. Will Ameer Abdullah finally put it all together?
3. Is Golden Tate a WR2?
4. Can Marvin Jones be a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Is Eric Ebron a TE1?
Most people thought Calvin Johnson's retirement last year would knock Matthew Stafford down a couple pegs. This site saw it differently, predicting QB1 production in contrast with his QB-17 average draft position. He finished the season seventh in QB fantasy points despite throwing only 10 TD passes in Detroit's final 10 games. How is that possible? It's a reminder that Stafford--currently owning a QB-13 ADP--is worth the investment. His receiving corps (including one of the best pass-catching RBs in the game) is plenty good enough to push him above 4,000+ yards for a seventh consecutive year. Draft him with relative confidence as a top 9-11 QB.
Last year I thought I'd snagged a bargain by picking Ameer Abdullah (RB-27 ADP) in the seventh round of a 14-team league. His Week 2 injury shouldn't scare anyone away. Neither should his bizarre RB-29 ADP this preseason. Abdullah is a healthy dose of touches (250+) away from returning top 15 positional value and could crack the top 10 if he pushes 300. This is a young, gifted runner whose abilities on the ground far and away exceed those of his teammates--in other words, the job is his as long as he's healthy. And that means Theo Riddick can go back to doing what he does best: serving primarily as a pass-catching change-of-pace back with 80-catch potential, not as a fill-in rusher.
Golden Tate was my favorite midseason acquisition last season. Historically, a solid performer when serving as his team's #1 receiver, Tate got off to a horrendous start (134 yards and zero TDs in weeks 1-5), in large part due to Marvin Jones's dramatic ascendance. But with Jones bound to regress, those who capitalized on owners' Tate-laden fears secured a WR1 for the remainder of the season. But this is a new year, and we have to assess not just how players will perform, but whether the market is misreading their projections. Tate should nestle into top 18-22 WR production--slightly better than his ADP. But Jones (WR-50 ADP) is likely underrated; either he or rookie Kenny Golladay will ascend to WR3/4 territory, and at this stage of the summer, it'll most likely be Jones.
What's not to love about Eric Ebron? The former 10th overall pick racked up 711 yards in only 13 games in 2016, culminating in fantasy's 14th most TE points. Why wasn't he better? Because he had only two TDs. Improved health, alone, will push him into the top 10, while a more realistic 4-6 TDs would make him an absolute steal at his TE-14 ADP. Also, the Lions added two TEs this offseason who will focus primarily on blocking, freeing up Ebron to do what he does best: catch balls and move the chains.