Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Alex Smith start all season, and does it matter?
2. Is Spencer Ware a reliable RB2?
3. Is Kareem Hunt draftable?
4. Will Tyreek Hill dominate again?
5. Is Travis Kelce a top 2 TE?
Longtime readers of this blog know how sympathetic I am toward Chief fans. Alex Smith has been, and always will be, the epitome of mediocrity on a team that at times has been one great QB away from competing for a Super Bowl title. Now 33 years old, Smith has never surpassed 24 TDs and is coming off a season where he accumulated 3,502 passing yards—his most ever. So when the Chiefs traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes in April, the writing was officially on the wall: Smith’s days as the Chiefs’ starter are numbered. Unless Kansas City is racking up wins early and often, we might see Mahomes take over midseason. Neither guy is worth drafting in regular leagues, and Smith offers only top 20-24 potential in two-QB leagues.
Spencer Ware did what he needed to do last year to earn the starting gig for another season. Then Kansas City drafted Kareem Hunt, and now all bets are off. According to Pro Football Focus, in college Hunt fumbled only once on 856 carries, and last year he forced the second-most missed tackles in the country. While on some other teams Charcandrick West might make some noise, and while in some other (undiscovered) universe C.J. Spiller is tearing things up, we head into July and August closely watching Ware and Hunt battling for what might become a 1a role to the other’s 1b. Last preseason, when Jamaal Charles was a shoo-in RB1, I was adamant that drafting him in the early rounds would be a wasted pick--that Ware was a far better value in later rounds. I'm saying something similar now: Ware (RB-17 ADP) is flat-out overvalued; he faded down the stretch last year (5.0 YPC through Week 10 and 3.5 YPC the rest of the way) and is highly unlikely to yield RB2 production.
The only thing more surprising about the Chiefs releasing Jeremy Maclin is that they signed him in the first place—a $55 million receiver on a team rarely asked to win games through the air. Still, I’m shocked they weren’t able to trade him to a team with a capable QB in need of a #2 wideout. Tyreek Hill now ascends to the top of the depth chart. He was unreal last season, picking up 12 TDs and a bucket-load of all-purpose yardage. Will defenses adjust? Possibly, especially since there’s so little talent behind him. Simply put, don’t overpay for any #1 receiver in Kansas City—at least until they get a top 16 QB. Hill's WR-25 ADP makes sense. As for Chris Conley, ignore Chris Conley.
After two top-10 TE seasons, Travis Kelce put it all together in 2016, finishing as fantasy’s #1 scorer despite reaching the end zone only four times. With no apology to Gronk fans / family members, Kelce should be the first TE taken off the board.