Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Carson Wentz take a significant step forward?
2. Can LeGarrette Blount continue to be a scoring machine?
3. Will Alshon Jeffery recapture his former glory?
4. Is Jordan Matthews a must-draft WR?
5. Is Zach Ertz a TE1?
I thought Carson Wentz would be a bust last season. Instead, he was solidly adequate. Unfortunately, he posted top 10 fantasy QB numbers only once and was essentially unstreamable starting Week 6. Still, he has the talent and personnel to build on his 3,782/16 season. It starts with cutting down on turnovers (23), which is a common rookie pitfall. Second, he needs more offensive weapons, plus a health Zach Ertz. Entirely doable. He also needs to improve his accuracy on deeper balls. Wentz’s QB-18 ADP suggests a slight statistical bump. That sounds about right, though a very strong preseason would push him into the top 14-16, making him a weekly starter in two-QB leagues and a terrific streamer in standard leagues.
Newly acquired LeGarrette Blount is coming off an 18-TD season that seemed to defy logic. His 2017 season will be far worse. Here are the warning signs: He’s coming off a 299-carry regular season (98 more than his previous career high in 2010), won’t come close to earning that many touches this year, is 30 years old, ran under 4 YPC (continuing a decline that started three seasons ago), and is playing in an offense that can’t hold a candle to New England’s. In other words, we should expect fewer touches, fewer scoring opportunities, and relative inefficiency compared to most starting RBs. Someone in your league will reach for him. Laugh quietly. Meanwhile, Ryan Mathews isn’t expected to stick around Philly, and rookie Donnel Pumphrey has leapfrogged Wendell Smallwood as the potential "next man up" if Blount or Darren Sproles gets hurt. Speaking of the ageless wonder, Sproles--#8 on the NFL’s all-time all-purpose yards list—will once again vie for RB2/RB3 production in what’s expected to be his final NFL season.
One of the NFL’s biggest offseason signings could, in retrospect, be a whole lotta “who cares.” Alshon Jeffery was a WR1 in 2013 and 2014 playing alongside Brandon Marshall in Chicago. But 11 missed games and a host of injury-hobbled games since then have turned Jeffery into a risk no one saw coming three years ago. Can he stay healthy? Can/will Wentz get him the ball enough to warrant Jeffery’s gaudy WR-13 ADP? The answer to one of these questions will be “no.” Jeffery will be, at best, a mid-to-low-range WR2. Teammate Jordan Matthews will remain relevant, as his “down” 2016 season can be chalked up to a rookie QB, the absence of a decent #2 wideout, and a low TD output that’s more of a mirage than the new norm; his WR-48 ADP is laughably off. The offseason addition of Torrey Smith won’t make too many fantasy waves, particularly if 2015 first rounder Nelson Agholor takes another step forward. Both guys can be ignored in fantasy leagues for now, as Wentz would need to move well into QB1 territory to make any sixth option on offense worth drafting.
Zach Ertz was one of my biggest preseason “bold predictions” last summer. Then a serious rib injury knocked him out of the opening game. He returned Week 5, and it wasn’t until Week 9 before he started gelling with Wentz. From that point forward, he averaged seven catches for 74 yards a game. The TE-11 ADP veteran is once again a TE1 with top 5 positional potential.