Before getting into the next team rundown, one thing that separates hardcore fantasy managers from the casual ones is the number of shifting narratives thrown at us each season. An injury, a suspension, a depth chart change, a coaching change, . . . Thousands and thousands of these shifting narratives occur every year. So we need to make sense of each one in real time, because there's often a ripple effect that shifts far more narratives than many initially realize.
The Titans' signing of Eric Decker last night should give Marcus Mariota a slight bump and could knock Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker down a few spots--or even Corey Davis if he doesn't adjust quickly to the NFL. Conversely, a couple of Jets receivers get nice bumps. While we don't yet know the full impact, Decker's integration with Tennessee's offense is a storyline to follow this preseason.
1. Who will start at QB, and does it matter?
2. Does Isaiah Crowell have strong RB1 potential?
3. Will Corey Coleman rebound?
4. Can Kenny Britt earn another 1,000-yard season?
5. Is David Njoku draftable?
With apologies to Browns fans, it’s time to talk about the Browns. Last preseason I identified only one underrated player based on Fantasy Pros’ expert consensus: Isaiah Crowell. This year Duke Johnson is the only clear-cut steal. So on that upbeat note, let’s get started.
In March, Cleveland acquired the horrendously overpaid Brock Osweiler and a second and sixth rounder in exchange for a fourth rounder. Then they tried to trade him. So let’s assume for the moment that given what we know about Osweiler’s skills, what Cleveland offers in terms of talent, and what the Browns think of him all suggest that he won’t win the starting job. That leaves likely 2016 draft bust Cody Kessler and likely 2017 draft bust DeShone Kizer battling it out for the chance to averaged 185 yards and one TD per game. Kizer is getting some buzz because, just like so many unproven Cleveland QBs before him, there’s a belief that he “can’t be worse” than what they have now. That kind of thinking won’t help your fantasy team.
When Crowell was bad last season, he was really bad: in an eight game stretch from Week 5 to Week 12, he scored twice on 2.5 YPC. He had five TDs on 6.5 YPC the other eight games, propelling him to high-end RB2 numbers overall. The consensus 15th ranked fantasy RB this preseason, Crowell can easily achieve RB1 status if head coach Hue Jackson gives him more than the measly 198 carries earned last year. His backfield partner, Duke Johnson, produced stats similar to his rookie season, but did so far more efficiently (3.6 YPC in 2015 vs. 4.9 YPC in 2016). He’s an absolute bargain at his current RB-45 ADP in standard leagues and is a solid RB3 with upside in PPR. Both backs will be running behind an improved offensive line--an intangible not always reflected on draft boards.
Last summer on this site I questioned the Browns’ wisdom in drafting Corey Coleman in the first round when they needed help in so many other places: “While I have no problem with the Coleman pick, having a dominant WR without a half-decent QB to throw to him is like having a state-of-the-art cell phone with a power cord that caps its battery life at 10%.” A broken hand, poor QB play, and adjusting to NFL defenses made Coleman worthless after Week 2’s breakout. Don’t expect a turnaround in 2017--and not just because he's already dealing with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, after seven NFL seasons, Kenny Britt finally put it all together in 2016, racking up 1,002 yards and five TDs. Oh, and it happened to be a contract year, so he parlayed the surprising output into a nice Cleveland pay day (four years, $32.5 million). Once again, the Browns believe receivers are the key. It won’t be long before Britt and the organization regret the partnership. All that said, these two lead receivers have average draft positions at WR-44 and WR-53, respectively. Last season Terrelle Pryor's targets (140) nearly doubled that of any other Cleveland receiver, getting targeted in nearly 25% of all passes. If Coleman or Britt (likely the former if healthy) is leaned on in the same way, he'd be a bargain. Something to watch for this summer . . .
At tight end, Gary Barnidge is out and first round draft pick David Njoku is in. While his size and reach make him an appealing prospect, and while his long-term future might be bright, Njoku will be, at best, the #5 option in a run-friendly offense. There are plenty of safer and higher upside options on your fantasy draft board.
The Titans' signing of Eric Decker last night should give Marcus Mariota a slight bump and could knock Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker down a few spots--or even Corey Davis if he doesn't adjust quickly to the NFL. Conversely, a couple of Jets receivers get nice bumps. While we don't yet know the full impact, Decker's integration with Tennessee's offense is a storyline to follow this preseason.
Five Biggest Questions
1. Who will start at QB, and does it matter?
2. Does Isaiah Crowell have strong RB1 potential?
3. Will Corey Coleman rebound?
4. Can Kenny Britt earn another 1,000-yard season?
5. Is David Njoku draftable?
With apologies to Browns fans, it’s time to talk about the Browns. Last preseason I identified only one underrated player based on Fantasy Pros’ expert consensus: Isaiah Crowell. This year Duke Johnson is the only clear-cut steal. So on that upbeat note, let’s get started.
In March, Cleveland acquired the horrendously overpaid Brock Osweiler and a second and sixth rounder in exchange for a fourth rounder. Then they tried to trade him. So let’s assume for the moment that given what we know about Osweiler’s skills, what Cleveland offers in terms of talent, and what the Browns think of him all suggest that he won’t win the starting job. That leaves likely 2016 draft bust Cody Kessler and likely 2017 draft bust DeShone Kizer battling it out for the chance to averaged 185 yards and one TD per game. Kizer is getting some buzz because, just like so many unproven Cleveland QBs before him, there’s a belief that he “can’t be worse” than what they have now. That kind of thinking won’t help your fantasy team.
When Crowell was bad last season, he was really bad: in an eight game stretch from Week 5 to Week 12, he scored twice on 2.5 YPC. He had five TDs on 6.5 YPC the other eight games, propelling him to high-end RB2 numbers overall. The consensus 15th ranked fantasy RB this preseason, Crowell can easily achieve RB1 status if head coach Hue Jackson gives him more than the measly 198 carries earned last year. His backfield partner, Duke Johnson, produced stats similar to his rookie season, but did so far more efficiently (3.6 YPC in 2015 vs. 4.9 YPC in 2016). He’s an absolute bargain at his current RB-45 ADP in standard leagues and is a solid RB3 with upside in PPR. Both backs will be running behind an improved offensive line--an intangible not always reflected on draft boards.
Last summer on this site I questioned the Browns’ wisdom in drafting Corey Coleman in the first round when they needed help in so many other places: “While I have no problem with the Coleman pick, having a dominant WR without a half-decent QB to throw to him is like having a state-of-the-art cell phone with a power cord that caps its battery life at 10%.” A broken hand, poor QB play, and adjusting to NFL defenses made Coleman worthless after Week 2’s breakout. Don’t expect a turnaround in 2017--and not just because he's already dealing with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, after seven NFL seasons, Kenny Britt finally put it all together in 2016, racking up 1,002 yards and five TDs. Oh, and it happened to be a contract year, so he parlayed the surprising output into a nice Cleveland pay day (four years, $32.5 million). Once again, the Browns believe receivers are the key. It won’t be long before Britt and the organization regret the partnership. All that said, these two lead receivers have average draft positions at WR-44 and WR-53, respectively. Last season Terrelle Pryor's targets (140) nearly doubled that of any other Cleveland receiver, getting targeted in nearly 25% of all passes. If Coleman or Britt (likely the former if healthy) is leaned on in the same way, he'd be a bargain. Something to watch for this summer . . .
At tight end, Gary Barnidge is out and first round draft pick David Njoku is in. While his size and reach make him an appealing prospect, and while his long-term future might be bright, Njoku will be, at best, the #5 option in a run-friendly offense. There are plenty of safer and higher upside options on your fantasy draft board.