Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Jameis Winston take a step forward?
2. Will Doug Martin bounce back?
3. Is DeSean Jackson a WR3?
4. Can Chris Godwin be a fantasy contributor?
5. Who will win the TE battle?
Jameis Winston is a rare player who performed exactly as expected last season, scoring the 16th most points at his position after entering the season as the consensus 16th ranked QB. Now the fantasy world is more bullish on him than ever, ranking him 10th heading toward the 2018 season. There’s too much QB talent to make me think Winston will take that much of a leap. Consider that guys like Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning should rebound sharply, leapfrogging the Bucs’ franchise player into QB1 territory. While the addition of DeSean Jackson gives Winston a much-needed #2 receiver, I think he’ll finish a little outside the top 12 for a third straight season.
Most people have had trouble predicting which Doug Martin we’ll see on the field. Rookie Martin (2012) amassed over 1,900 total offensive yards and 12 TDs. The next two years, injuries and poor play made him virtually fantasy irrelevant. Then in 2015, the mostly forgotten (consensus 34th ranked RB but 15th ranked FF4W RB) Martin rumbled for nearly 1,700 total yards with an impressive 4.9 YPC. Last year, his status returned to “injury-riddled” and “underperforming.” Heading into this season, the consensus 27th ranked Martin is once again a bargain. Don’t let the three-game suspension deter you. Coming off a drug treatment program and a heralded offseason regimen, the 28-year-old should return RB2+ value starting Week 4. Among the rest of Tampa Bay’s backfield, Charles Sims failed to build on his remarkable 2015 season (1,000+ total yards as a backup), delivering only 149 rushing yards on a measly 2.9 YPC and 190 receiving yards. The good news is that he’s healthy and couple play a significant role while Martin’s sidelined. The bad news is that veteran Jacquizz Rodgers ran much better and should open the year as the short-term starter.
Last summer I was pretty blunt about how undervalued Mike Evans was, predicting 1,400+ yards and 12+ TDs based on various predictable factors (http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2016/08/co-managing-fantasy-team-and-bold.html). This year there will be no surprises; Evans should be one of the first WRs selected in every fantasy draft. His new teammate, DJax (consensus WR-34 ADP), is much harder to promote. When healthy, he’s been a rock-solid 1,000-yard producer, and his 46 receiving TDs on 498 receptions are remarkable. But there are so many yellow flags: Perennially his team’s #1 receiver, he’ll now play second fiddle to Evans. Unlike most team #1’s, he’s been a relatively low-volume pass-catcher. He’s missed 14 games in the last five seasons. There might be a little upside to DJax, but not much, as he’s a slight reach as a WR3. And rookie Chris Godwin is worth keeping on radars, though this offense is not designed to grant fantasy relevance to three WRs.
Finally, Cameron Brate’s miracle (and obviously, well earned) 2016 season might become a distant memory. Few young, top 10 fantasy TEs lose their starting job. Brate is on the cusp thanks to the Bucs’ first round selection of O.J. Howard. While some believe Brate's proven chemistry with Winston will assure him the starting nod, top-20 NFL draft picks don't generally sit on the bench their rookie year. I'm watching Howard closely this summer and taking a late-round flier if he earns the top spot on the depth chart.