Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Marcus Mariota take another step forward?
2. Is DeMarco Murray an RB1 despite Derrick Henry's potential improvement?
3. Will Rishard Matthews continue to be an every-week starter?
4. Can rookie Corey Davis be fantasy relevant?
5. Will Delanie Walker replicate last year’s production?
It was a tale of two seasons for Marcus Mariota last year. His seven highest scoring fantasy outputs occurred during an eight-week stretch midseason. But in weeks 1-4 and weeks 14-16 (he sat Week 17) he produced only 9.6 fantasy points per game. While there’s no doubt Mariota is a terrific young talent, Tennessee’s run-heavy system caps his upside, pushing him outside the top 12.
The key to Tennessee—in reality and in fantasy—is the running game. DeMarco Murray earned his third elite RB season in four years. And unlike in 2014, when Dallas ran him into the ground, the 29-year-old carried the ball 293 times . . . in other words, a small red flag instead of one the size of Nissan Stadium. He’s expected to once again lead the backfield, and while his RB-7 ADP appears to make sense, I'd rather see him slide to 10-14. Derrick Henry will serve as fantasy’s #1 RB handcuff and could push for weekly flex startability in deeper leagues as a complementary back. While he’s not as proficient as Murray in the passing game (yet, at least), he’d be a weekly RB1 if Murray gets hurt. If you draft the veteran in the late first or early-mid second round, reach for Henry (RB-35 ADP) around the fifth.
Last year at this time, Rishard Matthews was, on average, the 76th WR drafted. This year no one will overlook him. However, I’m anticipating a slight regression over last year’s numbers (945/9 on 108 targets), which were racked up due in part to an absence of effective wideouts. Tajae Sharpe and Kendall Wright were inconsistent, and Harry Douglas was, well, Harry Douglas. Assuming Mariota doesn’t take a leap forward (which is what I’m assuming), rookie Corey Davis has the potential to cut into Matthews’ production in ways that no other receiver did last year. The fifth overall pick in this year’s draft is a better buy at his WR-37 ADP than Matthews is at his WR-39 ADP.
Delanie Walker surprised me last season; I didn’t anticipate top 10 TE production, much less top 5. The soon-to-be 33-year-old has developed a great rapport with Mariota and should earn enough red zone love to be useful. That said, he’ll be closer to the top 8-10 rankings than the top 4-6.