Five Biggest Questions
1. Is this the end of the line for Carson Palmer?
2. Will David Johnson once again be fantasy’s top RB?
3. Can Larry Fitzgerald make it three straight WR1 seasons?
4. Will John Brown bounce back to 2015 form?
5. Is J.J. Nelson draftable?
When a 35-year-old QB enjoys career highs in yards, yards per attempt, TDs, TD/INT ratio, and so on, it’s fair to assume some degree of drop-off during his 36-year-old campaign. That’s what happened to Carson Palmer from 2015 to 2016, when despite throwing the ball six more times per game, he regressed in all facets of the game. In what could be his last NFL season, Palmer isn’t getting love from the fantasy universe, earning a QB-23 ADP that suggests age and injuries will once again limit him. I think that’s too harsh an assessment. Expect 3,700-4,000 yards and 30-32 TDs, which should keep him in the top 16.
The fact is, you can never completely count out a QB who’s just completed 80 passes to one of the league’s top RBs. David Johnson surpassed 2,100 total yards, in large part because Palmer fed him the ball on the ground and in the air. Johnson’s 4.2 YPC and 373 total touches are small red flags in what should be another elite RB1 campaign. Keep in mind his 408 fantasy points were about 20% more than #2 Ezekiel Elliott. So there’s room to regress and still dominate. Meanwhile, Andre Ellington has shifted back to RB after a brief stint on the WR depth chart. Maligned in some fantasy circles for frequently going on the shelf and not living up to his 2013 rookie-year hype, Ellington is a fascinating handcuff if he locks down that role, and could become rosterable in deep leagues if the coaching staff offers him a complementary back role to keep Johnson fresh. Make no mistake: Ellington is talented enough to thrive in this offense if he's somehow given 8-10 touches a game.
If Larry Fitzgerald played two more seasons, he could move up to #2 on the all-time receiving yards and receptions lists. But he might not play that long. The all-time great is expected to announce later this summer whether he’s retiring after this season. If he leaves the game, he’ll be going out on top. Fitzgerald earned WR1 production for the second straight season last year. Still only 33 years old, he’s a worthwhile target at his WR-26 ADP. Meanwhile, the speedy John Brown is a nearly automatic bounce-back candidate: a WR3/4 who should put his injury-plagued 2016 season behind him. And with Michael Floyd gone, J.J. Nelson—one of my deep sleepers last summer—should reel in 50-60 catches as a WR4/5 far exceeding his current value (WR-75 ADP). Bringing up the rear, Jaron Brown is a relevant stash and nothing more.
The wild card in Arizona's receiving corps is rookie Chad Williams, the 98th pick in this year's draft and a guy Larry Fitzgerald recently praised for having Anquan Boldin-like strength and hands. I can see this playing out one of two ways: either Williams is buried on the depth chart all season due to his teammates' health and effectiveness, or he's thrust into the spotlight as the team's #2 wideout. I want to see how he looks later this summer before making a firmer assessment. For now, he's a terrific dynasty flier and a high-risk / medium-reward reach in regular leagues.
Should I discuss Jermaine Gresham? Last summer I skipped Arizona’s starting TE because of fantasy irrelevance. Since he’s merely a weekly dart throw, there’s nothing more to say.