Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Brian Hoyer draftable in two-QB leagues?
2. Is Carlos Hyde an RB2?
3. Is Joe Williams draftable?
4. Will Pierre Garcon thrive as his team's #1 receiver?
5. Will Jeremy Kerley build on his surprising 2016 production?
The 49ers have not recovered since its six-point loss in the 2013 NFL title game, which ended on a final-minute Seattle interception in the end zone. That 12-4 regular season was followed by eight victories in 2014, five in 2015, and two last season. Long gone is the illusion that Colin Kaepernick might be a franchise QB, much less a mid-range NFL QB. Gone are Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, and an up-and-coming Michael Crabtree. Gone is any semblance of a once-elite defense. In their place are a journeyman QB with one of the league's lowest ceilings, a running back who can't stay healthy, a possession receiver serving as the team's #1 target, and an array of other receivers not long for this league. There are more Cleveland Browns worth drafting in fantasy than there are Niners, and that pretty much says it all.
Brian Hoyer need not be drafted, even in two-QB leagues. He requires better receivers to be serviceable, and that's not happening this year. Rookie C.J. Beathard will start at some point whether the team likes it or not. The One thing going for either QB will be garbage-time yardage, as this team will be trailing by double-digits in most second halves. But that's a very thin silver lining.
A healthy Carlos Hyde would be the lone bright spot on this soon-to-be 1-15 team. But after missing 14 games in his three NFL seasons, the 25-year-old will surely disappoint, despite playing for a new contract. Pro Football Focus grades the Niners' offensive line as fifth-worst in the league. Hoyer won't keep any defenders honest, and Hyde is always one hit or awkward step away from yet another nagging injury. His RB-16 ADP suggests the average fantasy manager isn't paying attention. He's a risky bet to finish among the top 28. Rookie Joe Williams makes Hyde's uphill climb even tougher. On average the 57th RB off the board, Williams is the only potential bargain on this team, and is a near-must-own in dynasty leagues. If/when Hyde gets hurt, Williams could immediately become a TD-dependent RB2/3.
The most hopeful thing one can say about Pierre Garcon's arrival is that he's reunited with Kyle Shanahan, with whom he found success in 2013. Now back to reality: Garcon will be a streaming fantasy option at best. Last year he averaged only 4.6 yards after the catch, which is awful for a team's #1 receiver, particularly with a merely adequate QB throwing to him. Get use to seeing 6-8 catches for 40-60 yards, culminating in no more than three TDs. Athletic freak Marquise Goodwin is expected to start across from Garcon. Also newly signed by San Francisco, Goodwin has 49 receptions in 39 NFL games. I'll give you a moment to do the math. Even with the benefit of starter's minutes, Goodwin should be ignored. And expect Jeremy Kerley to regress after a surprisingly decent 667/3 2016 season.
A few months after Vance McDonald received a $35 million extension, there's talk that he might not even make this year's roster. Such as the state of affairs in Niners Land. Rookie George Kittle might earn the starting nod. But don't concern yourself with any of this. There are hundreds of other players worth tracking.