Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Blake Bortles a bottom 16 QB?
2. Will Leonard Fournette earn a bell cow role?
3. Will Allen Robinson return to greatness?
4. Can Allen Hurns once again be a viable fantasy option?
5. Will Marqise Lee build on his 2016 mini-breakout?
Longtime readers of this page know that my views on winning a title come down to a very basic principle: target guys whose actual value is better than their perceived value, and trade away guys once their actual value is worse than their perceived value. In the former camp, there's no bigger QB bargain this year than Blake Bortles. He's an easy guy to knock: in 2016 we witnessed a severe regression in mechanics and accuracy, and many believe the former #3 overall draft pick will never again thrive as a starter. His team is 11-37 in his three NFL seasons. So let's capitalize on the naysaying. The Bortles of 2015 was terrific: 4,428 passing yards and 37 TDs. The most compelling stat I could find during that campaign--at least as it compares to his down 2016 season--is "air yards per attempt." In 2015, on a per-attempt basis, his passes traveled 4.37 yards before being caught. That was the 10th highest average among all 32 teams' primary starting QBs. Last year that average dropped to 3.21--good for 30th best among primary starting QBs, ahead of only rookies Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Bortles is simply not a bottom-rung NFL QB. I believe this year we'll see a continuation of when Doug Marrone took over as head coach last December, when Bortles rattled off two successive solid performances to close out the season. The 25-year-old's QB-22 ADP is misguided. Get in front of the curve and grab him as the 16th to 17th QB off the board, with an expectation of top 12 production.
The Jags' running game certainly didn't help last year, as the tandem of T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory failed to exceed 3.8 YPC. Some blame the team's run blocking. Whatever side you're on, there's good reason to believe rookie Leonard Fournette finally gives Bortles a legitimate top 15 RB. Remember when most people thought Toby Gerhart was the answer? I didn't think so. For years this team has ached for a guy who can move the chains on the ground. The fourth overall pick in this year's NFL draft could get all he can handle. Slightly above-average injury risks and an underwhelming pass-catching history are the only blemishes. He should finish the season somewhere between a low-end RB1 and mid-range RB2, depending on usage. Former starter Yeldon caught an impressive 50 balls last year, so he's someone to monitor as a potential RB4 if Fournette isn't ready in that area. And the 29-year-old Ivory somehow earned a $32 million contract last year after a deceptively mediocre three-year stretch with the Jets. It's hard to envision him starting another game in his career.
Last preseason I ranked Allen Robinson lower than all 80 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros. Here's what I wrote on July 14, 2016: "Don’t overspend on Robinson this preseason. . . . Bookmark this page and come back to it in four months: Everyone is overvaluing him. Robinson will regress as [Marqise] Lee and/or Rashad Greene (34 combined catches in 2015) get more involved." This summer the experts remain mostly bullish on the fourth-year wideout, placing him, on average, 13th at his position. His WR ADP is 16. I'd rather let him fall a few spots lower, meaning I probably won't be able to draft him. And that's okay. Some of the best receiver value you'll find this year is with Allen Hurns (WR-73 ADP) and Marqise Lee (WR-74 ADP). Hurns battled hamstring issues in 2016 and, whether serving as Bortles' #2 or #3 target, is more likely than not to be a WR4/5. And Lee is ready to take another step forward as a fantasy-viable WR3/4 with upside if Hurns falters. You'd be wise to grab both at the end of your draft and see which ones becomes, at minimum, a back-end fantasy starter.
As for tight end, move along. Nothing to see here.