Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Drew Brees a top 5 QB?
2. Can Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson thrive together?
3. Will Michael Thomas replicate his near-elite 2016 production?
4. Can Willie Snead be a WR2?
5. Is Coby Fleener a TE1?
Another year, another dominating performance for Drew Brees: nine straight seasons with 33+ TDs and 11 straight with 4,300+ passing yards. If you snagged him in a dynasty league when he left San Diego 11 years ago, could you have imagined having the same elite QB for a decade or more? The 38-year-old even remarked a few months ago that he thinks he can play seven more years. I'm a skeptic when it comes to aging talents performing at high levels, but as with Tom Brady, it's impossible to count him out. The only thing that could realistically hinder Brees is an injury. Since he's missed only two games in the past 12 years, it's fair to say his QB-3 ADP is realistic--though I'd rather take him as the fifth or sixth QB off the board.
Potentially the biggest backfield battle in several years will play out over the next couple of months and throughout the fall. Coming off his first 16-game season since 2012 and his most impressive stat line (1,362/10) since entering the league, Mark Ingram is at the top of his game in the prime of his career. Then the Saints decided to sign future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer Adrian Peterson for a fraction of his past market value. Will the 32-year-old AP (RB-31 ADP), who's missed 28 games these past three seasons, remind everyone of his superhuman abilities? Or was this all a big mistake? Or more likely, will he end up splitting time, rendering him an RB1/2 some weeks and an RB3/4 other weeks? Ingram's RB-19 ADP says it all: the fantasy universe largely favors Ingram, though not convincingly. It's dangerous to reach for him at that price this early in the summer. Let's see where things stand mid-August.
Admittedly, I never saw Michael Thomas's rookie-year breakout coming. With Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead locked in on the outside and the arrival of Coby Fleener, I expected Thomas to pick up where the aged Marques Colston left off: a serviceable WR4/5 with the occasional touchdown while getting acclimated to the league. Instead, he dominated last season from the outset, catching 77% of his targets (third best among all WRs) and accumulating the seventh most fantasy points at his position. As with most near-elite WRs, his floor is very high, as he should be leaned on even more heavily this year. But as with other teams' newly minted #1 wideouts, he'll also match up against more formidable cornerbacks. Don't reach for him as a top 5 WR, and don't let him slide beyond the top 12. In terms of value, I like Willie Snead at his current WR-35 ADP; he should be a top 30 WR with top 20 potential, meaning I want him if the top 25 WRs are off the board and I'm at least 12 spots away from picking again. Consider that Brees had two top 10 fantasy WRs last year in Thomas and Cooks. Snead is talented enough to inch toward filling that gap. Meanwhile, Ted Ginn (WR-65 ADP) is an undervalued veteran worth taking as the 45th to 50th WR off the board--in other words, worth stashing in deep leagues as a bye-week streaming option or in the event Thomas or Snead goes down.
Finally, Coby Fleener is too undervalued at his TE-17 ADP. Granted, he was inconsistent in his first year in New Orleans. But he was clearly a rising star in Indianapolis and has the tools to fulfill his potential in one of the NFL's most potent offenses. Once he gels with Brees, he'll be a TE1. I believe that'll happen this year.